DJBOB Posted April 12, 2023 Share Posted April 12, 2023 47 minutes ago, Enda said: That’s just how probability works, though? For example, the probability of a rolling 6 twice in a row from two rolls of a die is about 3%. But if your first one come up as a 6, that probability jumps to about 17%. Similarly if we get three points from Newcastle when most of us would take a draw, the probability of hitting Europe should jump up. True but I’m saying that because a win is triple the value of a draw, there’s outsized swings in probability from game to game. As opposed to say American sports where one win does not vastly effect the probabilities from game to game. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaJ100 Posted April 12, 2023 Share Posted April 12, 2023 Mad to think how crucial that 4-0 under Danks could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 13 hours ago, Zhan_Zhuang said: Listening to the radio today and they spoke at length at how feasible it was for Brighton to achieve Europe (possibly CL) and how wonderful they were. I'm sitting there thinking WTF, Villa are a point better off and one place ahead of them and not a mention of us at all. Weird. The Guardian football podcast recently prefaced the show with they would talk about pantomime level ignored Villa run of form then when it came to Leicester result some guy just went on about Leicester players and how bad the team was and they moved on to next topic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 16 hours ago, VillaJ100 said: Mad to think how crucial that 4-0 under Danks could be. Which one? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 19 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said: Which one? Both could be quite inportant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaJ100 Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 1 hour ago, bannedfromHandV said: Which one? Yes 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viivvaa66 Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 23 hours ago, nick76 said: I’m sorry it is pointless because you then go on to point out one reason of a number of reasons why it has a much reliability as somebody guessing. The sample data is too small, it doesn’t take in other factors like form, injuries, fixture congestion just to name a few of many, the rewards per game ie 3 points can make a massive difference in such a small data sample. This falls down dramatically as a statistical model and as I said it’s pointless. Sorry! As George Box said: “All models are wrong but some are useful”. To predict the outcome of a match do include a lot of variables that can’t be included in the model, like the breakdown of VAR in the Spurs vs Brighton match and so on. Still bookmakers do try to predict the outcome of matches, and they make money, so it can be done better than some random guessing. As any statistical model it is never going to be 100% correct, but I would still rate it somewhat higher than pointless. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YLN Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 I have a 50 euro bet on Villa to finish in the top six at 40/1. I bet back in November when Unai got the job. The betting company is offering me 107 euro for my bet now. If I cashed it in though I'd be wishing Villa to lose for the rest of the season. I'm going to let it ride. In Unai we trust... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Willard Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 Been listening to Newcastle YouTubers for some contrast. None of them have noticed we are 6th and mostly hate us. Thinking we are desperate to be their rivals but are a level above us now. I hope we bring them down to earth. I thought we were scrapping the barrel against Leicester and Forest. Both performances looked a little leggy minus Watkins. Hoping with a weeks recovery we will look sharper again. Would be nice to grab a win and be 6 points behind them with them playing spurs afterwards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancvillan Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 7 hours ago, Kiwivillan said: The Guardian football podcast recently prefaced the show with they would talk about pantomime level ignored Villa run of form then when it came to Leicester result some guy just went on about Leicester players and how bad the team was and they moved on to next topic I think I get the story you're trying to tell but it took six reads and now my head hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancvillan Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 1 hour ago, viivvaa66 said: As George Box said: “All models are wrong but some are useful”. To predict the outcome of a match do include a lot of variables that can’t be included in the model, like the breakdown of VAR in the Spurs vs Brighton match and so on. Still bookmakers do try to predict the outcome of matches, and they make money, so it can be done better than some random guessing. As any statistical model it is never going to be 100% correct, but I would still rate it somewhat higher than pointless. Don't bookmakers use models for base spreads but leave total of all outcomes under 100% and then adjust based on what people bet on? Genuinely curious, no idea how it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DevonIsAPlaceOnEarth Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 A point against Newcastle would be very useful in the bigger picture for Europe this weekend, especially as Chelsea play Brighton, Brentford are away at Wolves and Liverpool travel to their bogey team in Leeds. Chelsea, Leeds and Wolves wins would really propel us. Us winning on top of that and it’s really on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdman Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 2 hours ago, YLN said: I have a 50 euro bet on Villa to finish in the top six at 40/1. I bet back in November when Unai got the job. The betting company is offering me 107 euro for my bet now. If I cashed it in though I'd be wishing Villa to lose for the rest of the season. I'm going to let it ride. In Unai we trust... Do not cash that out! Poor offer anyway. Hopefully will increase drastically with a few more wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 2 hours ago, YLN said: I have a 50 euro bet on Villa to finish in the top six at 40/1. I bet back in November when Unai got the job. The betting company is offering me 107 euro for my bet now. If I cashed it in though I'd be wishing Villa to lose for the rest of the season. I'm going to let it ride. In Unai we trust... Rubbish offer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 22 minutes ago, DevonIsAPlaceOnEarth said: A point against Newcastle would be very useful in the bigger picture for Europe this weekend, especially as Chelsea play Brighton, Brentford are away at Wolves and Liverpool travel to their bogey team in Leeds. Chelsea, Leeds and Wolves wins would really propel us. Us winning on top of that and it’s really on. Only formula for me is us winning and Brighton losing at Chelsea. Obviously not a given by a long way but a 4 point lead over Brighton at this late stage of the season is quite a gap regardless of their games in hand (and that is away to Newcastle). Winning this weekend would also keep a 3 point gap minimum over Liverpool (I think they'll do enough to win at Leeds). Get the feeling a few clubs are thinking this is the weekend where our momentum will be halted and we'll start dropping off so up to us to go out and do what we've been doing in last two months and see what happens. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyblade Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 I'm just interested to see how Unai approaches this game. I know he knows how pivotal it can be. He's going to come up with some genius shit I can feel it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 31 minutes ago, Keyblade said: I'm just interested to see how Unai approaches this game. I know he knows how pivotal it can be. He's going to come up with some genius shit I can feel it. He will but then it comes down to the players executing his plans 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAMAICAN-VILLAN Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 6 hours ago, Lord Willard said: Been listening to Newcastle YouTubers for some contrast. None of them have noticed we are 6th and mostly hate us. Thinking we are desperate to be their rivals but are a level above us now. I hope we bring them down to earth. I thought we were scrapping the barrel against Leicester and Forest. Both performances looked a little leggy minus Watkins. Hoping with a weeks recovery we will look sharper again. Would be nice to grab a win and be 6 points behind them with them playing spurs afterwards. To be fair, they kind of rightfully " Hate US " as they will never forgive us for the pisstaking and banners upon sending them down that season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 53 minutes ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said: To be fair, they kind of rightfully " Hate US " as they will never forgive us for the pisstaking and banners upon sending them down that season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaJ100 Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 1 hour ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said: To be fair, they kind of rightfully " Hate US " as they will never forgive us for the pisstaking and banners upon sending them down that season. It was like literally two banners and a couple of songs. Talk about sensitive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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