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Relegation thread


Knutserov13

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I wouldn't be writing Watford off just yet, a new voice in the dressing room maybe just what they need and a point would see them get one the line I think. I can't see us getting 4 points from the last two. 

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9 hours ago, Mjvilla said:

Did dyche buy his time when he relegated Burnley?

Again. Different situation.

Wilder actually was able to spend a decent amount of money.

Dyche only got to spend around 8 mill. Relegation was very much expected.

Dyche's working conditions is more similar to what Dean had to deal with at Brentford. Difference is Smith never got out of the Championship with Brentford.

Edited by villalad21
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10 minutes ago, Rob182 said:

I’m happy for Smith to take charge in the Championship, and I think that he can be the man to get us promoted.

If he isn't good enough at this level what's the point in keeping him around? Genuine question.

We need a man who can achieve in both.

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11 minutes ago, jim said:

I wouldn't be writing Watford off just yet, a new voice in the dressing room maybe just what they need and a point would see them get one the line I think. I can't see us getting 4 points from the last two. 

They may not even have to do anymore.

Bournemouth and Villa losing all their remaining games is not out of the realm of possibility.

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9 hours ago, VillaChris said:

Hopefully we stay up but we've still averaged well under a point a game even with Grealish in god mode for 3-4 months of the season.

Reminds me of 14/15 a bit. A brief rally gets us to 38 points and safety with Benteke the main player and likes of Delph, Vlaar and Cleverley playing their parts. They all go and we crash and burn the next season.

One thing's for sure. Even if we survive (and I obviously hope we can do it) we're going to have to produce our best summer window since 2009 just to build an 11 who can finish on 40-45 points and give us a more comfortable mid table season. Add in the tighter transfer window and it's a very tough task e.g. no more taking chances on majority of our signings being mediocre players untested in premier league.

Will still love to survive just to see what we'd do.

If we stay up, the rebuild won’t be anywhere near as big as then. In 2014 we lost our best central defender, our best central midfielder and our best striker (plus Cleverley on loan).
 

This season we’ll probably only lose Grealish if we stay up. We can then use the £60-80m from that sale, plus more Prem money, on signing a handful of good players.

Ie: (total guesstimates) Sarr for £45m from Watford, Buendia for £30m from Norwich, a £30m striker, a Premier League experienced central defender and a few more £15-20m signings for competition.

It wouldn’t be anything like 2014 when we brought in about 10 players, or this year where we brought in about 13.

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8 hours ago, Stevo985 said:

To be fair we don't need to win two in a row. 

It's perfectly feasible that a loss and a win could keep us up.

Well that is relying on Watford losing two and getting at least one tonking. We could lose 3-0 to Arsenal quite easily. Sorry to be the harbinger of doom but we haven't beaten Arsenal at home since 1998. We have only beaten them once in the last 10 games, drawing one and losing 8. In that time we have scored 8 and conceded 26 (inlcuding 1 5 nil defeat and 2 4 nil defeats), with only 1 clean sheet. And they have just beaten Liverpool and Man City.  Sorry just injecting a bit of realism into the situation.

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I think Bournemouth are still in with a decent shout.

Taking Watford out of it for a moment. Unless i'm missing something, If we just lose to Arsenal by a goal we drop below Bournemouth on goal difference. We then have to beat West Ham by a goal more than Bournemouth beat Everton. (which I could see them doing) Obviously if we lose 2-0 to arsenal that becomes beating WHU by more than 2 goals more (Bournemouth win 1-0 we have to win 3-0). A point is crucial tmoro night.

 

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4 minutes ago, villalad21 said:

They may not even have to do anymore.

Bournemouth and Villa losing all their remaining games is not out of the realm of possibility.

yeah...basically whoever says up out of us three, isn't through them being good enough for this league, it's literally because there are 3 other teams worse. whoever performs the least shite in their remaining games, stays up

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1 minute ago, villanmac said:

I think Bournemouth are still in with a decent shout.

Taking Watford out of it for a moment. Unless i'm missing something, If we just lose to Arsenal by a goal we drop below Bournemouth on goal difference. We then have to beat West Ham by a goal more than Bournemouth beat Everton. (which I could see them doing) Obviously if we lose 2-0 to arsenal that becomes beating WHU by more than 2 goals more (Bournemouth win 1-0 we have to win 3-0). A point is crucial tmoro night.

 

i agree. i think we'll need 4 pts total. i actually dont think bournemouth are totally dead yet. looking at their teamsheet yesterday i can't see many leaving in the summer so the message from eddie will be "90 mins left as premier league players, no pressure, everything and the kitchen sink from minute 1"

we know they can score goals

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9 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

Well that is relying on Watford losing two and getting at least one tonking. We could lose 3-0 to Arsenal quite easily. Sorry to be the harbinger of doom but we haven't beaten Arsenal at home since 1998. We have only beaten them once in the last 10 games, drawing one and losing 8. In that time we have scored 8 and conceded 26 (inlcuding 1 5 nil defeat and 2 4 nil defeats), with only 1 clean sheet. And they have just beaten Liverpool and Man City.  Sorry just injecting a bit of realism into the situation.

It's a funny one. Having the game tmoro night is in theory an advantage because we have the opportunity to get some points but it could be argued that we'd be better off without it (and just have played 37 games) as it could do a lot more harm than good! 

Edited by villanmac
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If we beat Arsenal we are directly contributing to them having nothing to play for in their final game. Against Watford...

Honestly just have to hope that Man City crush them mentally and destroys their GD.

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30 minutes ago, Rob182 said:

I said at the start of the season that unless we go down in poor fashion, ie: cut adrift like Norwich are, then we keep him. 

If we go down and come close to survival (as seems likely) then it’s a case of fine margins and not that he is completely inept at this level. And before you say ‘so not being inept is the minimum standard’, that is taking into account the situation that we were in.

No club has a divine right to get promoted and stay up. No other club had a rebuild job such as ours. No other club lost as many loan/old players that needed replacing. No other club had £130m to either build a squad or to bring in 5-6 more expensive players and prey that no one gets injured. No one else, as far as I’m aware, has lost 3 of their starting eleven for a minimum of half of the season.

I’m happy for Smith to take charge in the Championship, and I think that he can be the man to get us promoted. I’d sack him as soon as it’s looking clear that he’s not that man. Ie: If we’re in touching distance of play-offs but we’re playing poorly.

My main concern with getting rid of Smith, is another rebuild, another influx of coaching staff, yet another shift of playing style from one thing to another. Now, I’m sure you’ll say ‘but what is Smith’s playing style’, but I think it’s clear to see how Smith wants us to play - but maybe it’s a more difficult to play that way in a league where every squad, bar 1 or 2, is double the value of your own.

Lastly, you said ‘if we continue to fail to win’... You realise we won a game 2 games ago? Or have you conveniently wiped that from your memory.

Agreed on that first point.

If he wins at least 1 or draws the last 2 matches, regardless of whether we get relegated, I say he has done enough to keep his job. We'll likely be relegated on very fine margins if that happens.

 

Edited by Laughable Chimp
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1 minute ago, villalad21 said:

If we beat Arsenal we are directly contributing to them having nothing to play for in their final game. Against Watford...

Honestly just have to hope that Man City crush them mentally and destroys their GD.

arsenal wont have anything to play for anyway. wolves are at home to palace tonight, who spurs play last game. arsenal aren't getting into europe

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2 minutes ago, tomav84 said:

arsenal wont have anything to play for anyway. wolves are at home to palace tonight, who spurs play last game. arsenal aren't getting into europe

Unless they win the Cup. They have quite a good record in that competition.

Edited by The Fun Factory
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If Watford better our result tomorrow then we will be relegated. And I'm not taking it for granted that Man City are going to win, they've looked out of sorts in their last two games, almost like they were treating them more like training sessions, especially against Bournemouth in the league, and Watford have already beaten the likes of Liverpool, Man Utd, Wolves and drawn with Chelsea, Spurs and Leicester this season, they've shown that they're very capable of getting results against the division's better sides.

Have to hope that Guardiola wants a response from his players after two disappointing displays, previous to that they beat Burnley and Newcastle 5-0, need them to get back to that kind of form.

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4 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

Unless they win the Cup. They have quite a good record in that competition.

yeah - but league wise nothing to play for

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36 minutes ago, Rob182 said:

I said at the start of the season that unless we go down in poor fashion, ie: cut adrift like Norwich are, then we keep him. 

If we go down and come close to survival (as seems likely) then it’s a case of fine margins and not that he is completely inept at this level. And before you say ‘so not being inept is the minimum standard’, that is taking into account the situation that we were in.

No club has a divine right to get promoted and stay up. No other club had a rebuild job such as ours. No other club lost as many loan/old players that needed replacing. No other club had £130m to either build a squad or to bring in 5-6 more expensive players and prey that no one gets injured. No one else, as far as I’m aware, has lost 3 of their starting eleven for a minimum of half of the season.

I’m happy for Smith to take charge in the Championship, and I think that he can be the man to get us promoted. I’d sack him as soon as it’s looking clear that he’s not that man. Ie: If we’re in touching distance of play-offs but we’re playing poorly.

My main concern with getting rid of Smith, is another rebuild, another influx of coaching staff, yet another shift of playing style from one thing to another. Now, I’m sure you’ll say ‘but what is Smith’s playing style’, but I think it’s clear to see how Smith wants us to play - but maybe it’s a more difficult to play that way in a league where every squad, bar 1 or 2, is double the value of your own.

Lastly, you said ‘if we continue to fail to win’... You realise we won a game 2 games ago? Or have you conveniently wiped that from your memory.

Great post, my thoughts exactly!

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