Douglas Luiz

[JPJCB]

8 minutes ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

So you've moved into that camp because of his poor game in a depleted midfield last night where the whole team was poor?

Does this eliminate all his other world-class showings?

If it was as easy as some are suggesting to get a player just as good or better for 100 mill, why wouldn't the offering club just go for that player instead?

I personally took a long time to become a fan of Doug... But this is beyond kneejerk.

When the facts change, I change my mind? Is that tricky to understand?

Much the same as you I was unconvinced by Doug for a long time and it’s the last 12 months that he’s proved me wrong. Even now I don’t think he’s a bad player by any means but last night showed me that he isn’t a leader. When the chips are down you want players to step up and want to get on the ball and take control of the game- the opposite of what Luiz did. Apparently it’s kneejerk to say that I now think accepting a £100m fee for him- a fee that would make him the third most expensive player of all time- might not be a bad idea. Ok then? 
 

Im less pessimistic than you are about our ability to find a decent replacement. We found Kamara for a free transfer and how much would you say he’s worth now. Or we could spend £50m on two very very good midfielders (if not as good as Luiz) which would solve our depth problem in that area 

[HanoiVillan]

6 minutes ago, JPJCB said:

When the facts change, I change my mind? Is that tricky to understand?

Much the same as you I was unconvinced by Doug for a long time and it’s the last 12 months that he’s proved me wrong. Even now I don’t think he’s a bad player by any means but last night showed me that he isn’t a leader. When the chips are down you want players to step up and want to get on the ball and take control of the game- the opposite of what Luiz did. Apparently it’s kneejerk to say that I now think accepting a £100m fee for him- a fee that would make him the third most expensive player of all time- might not be a bad idea. Ok then? 
 

Im less pessimistic than you are about our ability to find a decent replacement. We found Kamara for a free transfer and how much would you say he’s worth now. Or we could spend £50m on two very very good midfielders (if not as good as Luiz) which would solve our depth problem in that area 

That's fine, but note you're changing your argument. Your initial argument was 'with £100m we could buy a player just as good or better', which there's no reason to believe. Now you've changed to essentially 'selling Luiz for £100m might not be a disaster and might even enable better squad building' which is more defensible but not the same argument. 

[JPJCB]

Just now, HanoiVillan said:

That's fine, but note you're changing your argument. Your initial argument was 'with £100m we could buy a player just as good or better', which there's no reason to believe. Now you've changed to essentially 'selling Luiz for £100m might not be a disaster and might even enable better squad building' which is more defensible but not the same argument. 

You’re right the second argument is stronger. I haven’t fully abandoned the first though. There are plenty of situations where the buying club overpays for a player whether that’s stupidity (Chelsea going for caicedo) or a title aspiring side feeling they are the missing piece of the puzzle (arsenal going for rice). It would obviously depend on the exact situation which is the case. But I don’t think it’s outlandish to say that we could get a player as good as Luiz or better for a monetary equivalent of the third most expensive player in history.

This initial debate started because people accused a fellow poster of having a kneejerk reaction by saying that selling someone for £100’ might not be a bad idea which is just bad logic to me 

[Nabby]

He starts every game , last time I saw a stat it was something like 76 starts from last 77 games. He missed Kamara last  night but I also think he could do with a break.

[HanoiVillan]

1 minute ago, JPJCB said:

You’re right the second argument is stronger. I haven’t fully abandoned the first though. There are plenty of situations where the buying club overpays for a player whether that’s stupidity (Chelsea going for caicedo) or a title aspiring side feeling they are the missing piece of the puzzle (arsenal going for rice). It would obviously depend on the exact situation which is the case. But I don’t think it’s outlandish to say that we could get a player as good as Luiz or better for a monetary equivalent of the third most expensive player in history.

This initial debate started because people accused a fellow poster of having a kneejerk reaction by saying that selling someone for £100’ might not be a bad idea which is just bad logic to me 

As I say, a player who *deserved* to cost £100m would be one of the best 20 or 25 players in the world. The likes of PSG, Real Madrid, Arsenal, Man City would be competing with us. I know we've had a good half a season but we're not going to be beating those clubs to signings yet, if ever.

Let me pit it another way. If you emerged out of a bottle in a puff if smoke and asked me if I would swap Luiz for Rice while changing nothing else about the world, I would say yes. But if we'd bidded the same amount as Arsenal last summer Rice wouldn't have even entertained the idea of joining us. 

[JPJCB]

6 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

As I say, a player who *deserved* to cost £100m would be one of the best 20 or 25 players in the world. The likes of PSG, Real Madrid, Arsenal, Man City would be competing with us. I know we've had a good half a season but we're not going to be beating those clubs to signings yet, if ever.

Let me pit it another way. If you emerged out of a bottle in a puff if smoke and asked me if I would swap Luiz for Rice while changing nothing else about the world, I would say yes. But if we'd bidded the same amount as Arsenal last summer Rice wouldn't have even entertained the idea of joining us. 

The missing piece of logic there of course is the suggestion that Luiz is worth £100m in the first place which is the thing we’re actually debating. If you assumed he was worth closer to £70-£80m which might be fairer value since he’s had only 12m playing at the top form he has been recently then signing a CM to replace him doesn’t look as difficult. Not easy by any means but if we’re going to be part of the big leagues which is our aspiration then we have to be in those races. Hopefully if we have CL football it makes it a lot easier.

I note as well that the structure of your argument would basically apply regardless of any fee that we received for Luiz. If we received £500m for him we’d still face the exact challenges you’re talking about. So your argument isn’t “don’t sell Luiz because he’s worth more to us than the fee we’d get for him”; instead it’s “don’t sell Luiz because we’ll never ever be able to sign a replacement in any circumstances”. That might be true but is overly pessimistic and just isn’t sensible in an FFP world. To take grealish as an example, I think most posters today would say we’ve done ok out of that deal but very few would have on the day of the deal itself. £100m is a hell of a lot of money

[mrchnry]

Are we really debating if we'd take 100 mil for Luiz? Of course we would, regardless of form. 

[rodders0223]

You're allowed to point out someone had a had game, like. Relax yourselves lol

[sne]

1 minute ago, mrchnry said:

Are we really debating if we'd take 100 mil for Luiz? Of course we would, regardless of form. 

I doubt we would mid-season thou. Especially this season.

[foreveryoung]

I'm still sticking to the fact he may have too much at the Christmas party along with a few others, he's known as a bit of a party boy.

Looking for a huge improvement against Burnley and I'm sure Unai will too, never saw the manager so perplexed and unhappy.

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

57 minutes ago, rodders0223 said:

You're allowed to point out someone had a had game, like. Relax yourselves lol

No one is saying anyone can't point out someone having a bad game, multiple have already done so, in multiple threads.

The point is more that some have decided that he's suddenly not as valuable as once thought, due to one performance last night. Lol

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

1 hour ago, JPJCB said:

The missing piece of logic there of course is the suggestion that Luiz is worth £100m in the first place which is the thing we’re actually debating. If you assumed he was worth closer to £70-£80m which might be fairer value since he’s had only 12m playing at the top form he has been recently then signing a CM to replace him doesn’t look as difficult. 

I can sort of agree with that logic, but that logic isn't the reality of the current market place. It's about what the player is worth to the club.

Also, you can buy a player but you have no guarantee they will settle in, how they well settle in, how long it will take them to settle in if ever etc.

We have a player already deeply engrained and settled in the club, who has proven his worth multiple times over, so it would be a risk to play roulette imo.

Is Caeicedo worth the 100 and odd million Chelsea paid for him after one season at Brighton, for example?

Also, you've said you mind changes as " facts change ". So you're doubling down on the fact that your mind changed, based on one performance?

There are 10 other players on the pitch, not every player is or has to be a " leader " either, that's the likes of McGinn, Martinez and Konsa job.

Yeah we'd all like the generic " team of leaders " but that is fantasy.

Edited December 27, 2023 by JAMAICAN-VILLAN

[JPJCB]

12 minutes ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

No one is saying anyone can't point out someone having a bad game, multiple have already done so, in multiple threads.

The point is more that some have decided that he's suddenly not as valuable as once thought, due to one performance last night. Lol

I don’t know why you think this is such a laughable view? Yesterday was a big big game that we bottled at least partly due to a very poor performance from the player we’re discussing. It seems really odd to me that you wouldn’t take that into account in the value of a player. Before yesterday I didn’t think Luiz would go missing in big games. Now I think it’s quite possible that he could. Now of course that needs to be balanced against his performances to this point, but your view amounts to saying we should just ignore what happened yesterday entirely 

[Pinebro]

Always gonna create drama out of nothing ain't we?

No one is saying they want to get rid of Luiz. I want him to stay.

What I'm saying is if he wants to go and Arsenal is prepared to give us 100 M it's not gonna be the end of the world for me.

For that money I do believe we can get in someone as good or even better.

[rodders0223]

18 minutes ago, Pinebro said:

Always gonna create drama out of nothing ain't we?

No one is saying they want to get rid of Luiz. I want him to stay.

What I'm saying is if he wants to go and Arsenal is prepared to give us 100 M it's not gonna be the end of the world for me.

For that money I do believe we can get in someone as good or even better.

How dare you call Luiz a pub player and say we are going to get relegated. Most successful season in a lifetime.

[DJBOB]

3 hours ago, foreveryoung said:

I'm still sticking to the fact he may have too much at the Christmas party along with a few others, he's known as a bit of a party boy.

Looking for a huge improvement against Burnley and I'm sure Unai will too, never saw the manager so perplexed and unhappy.

The way he was misplacing some of the passes had that Sunday league feeling about him. 

[lexicon]

51 minutes ago, Pinebro said:

Always gonna create drama out of nothing ain't we?

No one is saying they want to get rid of Luiz. I want him to stay.

What I'm saying is if he wants to go and Arsenal is prepared to give us 100 M it's not gonna be the end of the world for me.

For that money I do believe we can get in someone as good or even better.

That still doesn't logically make sense because we're not going to buy a player for 100m (for the reasons stated) and Luiz would, de facto, be a 100m player.

The best case scenario is that we get someone who might, after having time to settle, be on the same level as him, and then you'd have to ask yourself what the point of selling him was in the first place.

[Delphinho123]

 

lol

[DJBOB]

 

[nick76]

1 minute ago, DJBOB said:

 

Barca have no money! We also know that not everybody in the Arsenal recruitment team are as enamoured with Dougie.  This is a poor story by John Townley, which I’m surprised about.