Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Genie]

Hopefully the recent visit by Xi was to warm Putin up to the fact he’s going to start condemning the invasion.

[Mr_Dogg]

On 04/04/2023 at 14:41, The Fun Factory said:

So even if Russia end up with a section of eastern Ukraine their overall security situation is worse with Finland leaving its decades (centuries?) old policy of neutrality.  

Finland joining NATO has more than doubled the amount of border Russia shares with NATO countries.

[villa89]

1 hour ago, Genie said:

Hopefully the recent visit by Xi was to warm Putin up to the fact he’s going to start condemning the invasion.

No chance of that, China can't easily replace Russian Oil. Xi will remain firmly on the fence and he knows Russia has to try to keep China onside so the oil will keep flowing.

[Genie]

3 minutes ago, villa89 said:

No chance of that, China can't easily replace Russian Oil. Xi will remain firmly on the fence and he knows Russia has to try to keep China onside so the oil will keep flowing.

After a bumpy period many other places have weaned themselves off Russian oil and gas fairly quickly. Saudi Arabia recently announced it was reducing production didn’t they?

I reckon China could manage, although it might not be as cheap as Putin is currently selling his supply at.

[villa89]

Just now, Genie said:

I reckon China could manage, although it might not be as cheap as Putin is currently selling his supply at.

I think it's different for Europe, the Middle East is relatively close to us. The logistics of getting millions of barrels of oil from the Middle East to China just doesn't work. China has no neighbouring countries that can produce oil in the quantities it needs apart from Russia. Also The Saudi's are happy enough to keep the price of oil as high as possible. I don't see them upping production. India and China will keep buying Russian oil one way or another, maybe through an intermediary like one of the Stan's if needed. For the world economy it's actually important India and China keep buying up the Russian oil, without that pressure release on the supply of oil inflation would skyrocket. It's already too high. 

[sne]

 

[blandy]

Russia has also recovered that Global Hawk UAV from the bottom of the sea. Bad week for US secrets.

[bickster]

1 hour ago, sne said:

 

Operation Mincemeat II  

[avfc1982am]

3 hours ago, blandy said:

Russia has also recovered that Global Hawk UAV from the bottom of the sea. Bad week for US secrets.

Would be interesting to know actually how much of the tech is recoverable and whether they plan to pass it to the Chinese or Iranians. Surely if the US was that troubled they'd have sent in a recovery team as the drone went down in international waters? 

[avfc1982am]

 

[blandy]

18 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

Would be interesting to know actually how much of the tech is recoverable and whether they plan to pass it to the Chinese or Iranians. Surely if the US was that troubled they'd have sent in a recovery team as the drone went down in international waters? 

I posted about this when it happened, but quite a bit will be recoverable. Whether it can be reverse engineered or decrypted is another matter, but I'd imagine the stuff I know about can be.

They'll be able to find out the resolution of Cameras, they'll have the MIDS data link and other radio and radar kit - it's very likely they already know the frequencies they operate on, but they'll be able to find out more. The really really key things they'll want to understand and reverse engineer are the Crypto kit and data stored on a bulk storage device (which will be encrypted, plus the military IFF stuff (Mode 5) - all that's encrypted (as are MIDS data link messages) - if they can unscramble the cryptos then that would be hugely useful for them. Crypto keys are changed, so the ones used at that time are void and gone, but the mechanisms are the er, key. I don't know if there was any anti tamper implemented on any of the equipment, but suspect not in the case of most of the things I've listed (other than the Data store, perhaps). It's a significant set back for NATO and the US in particular, in terms of protecting technological advantage, though it will likely take a fair time for Russia/Iran/China to work through it all and gain that advantage.

[bickster]

33 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

 

That's quite the argument to be having on Russian State TV, it's not the regime coming to an end that is the story in that clip really, it's that he stated that things wouldn't be blowing up in Russia or that Russian cities wouldn't be being shelled if it wasn't for Russia's own actions in starting the Special Military Operation. That went a lot further than I've seen before on a Moscow talking heads show

[avfc1982am]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

That's quite the argument to be having on Russian State TV, it's not the regime coming to an end that is the story in that clip really, it's that he stated that things wouldn't be blowing up in Russia or that Russian cities wouldn't be being shelled if it wasn't for Russia's own actions in starting the Special Military Operation. That went a lot further than I've seen before on a Moscow talking heads show

Yeah I thought that. Quite interesting how they all ganged up on him but he kept going until he made his point which is the truth. The presenter threatening to take his belt off(what a prat) shows the level shite you have to be prepared to take if your opinions goes against the grain. 

[avfc1982am]

If the FSB were responsible for the bombing the other day. It appears the propaganda shills are unaware. This is Simonyan's old man, sounding a little concerned. I think he should be because I would gather him or his missus would be a high assassination target for more than one group. Ukrainians or Russians. 

 

[blandy]

These leaked documents. Ukraine’s in serious trouble. About to run out of air defence munitions. If/when they do, Russia will be able to resume flights over the whole of Ukraine and bomb the heck out of the troops, Parliament, the dams, the power stations and electricity grid. Anything and everything. Grim.

[Anthony]

3 hours ago, blandy said:

These leaked documents. Ukraine’s in serious trouble. About to run out of air defence munitions. If/when they do, Russia will be able to resume flights over the whole of Ukraine and bomb the heck out of the troops, Parliament, the dams, the power stations and electricity grid. Anything and everything. Grim.

If the documents are accurate. They might be. They might be disinformation. Anyone who actually knows the truth will be keeping quiet. 

[avfc1982am]

1 hour ago, Anthony said:

If the documents are accurate. They might be. They might be disinformation. Anyone who actually knows the truth will be keeping quiet. 

Was it a Russian state owned cyber group that released the info or did this come from somewhere else?  

This war in itself is based around lies and disinformation. I'm not sure even hacked/stolen info in most cases will be accurate or trustworthy. 

If you was one Country or another and came into possession of you opponents capacity/inventory or even their plans for future offences, the last thing you'd do is bleat about it in the media. Especially if there was anything that suggested the info was legit. 

[tinker]

6 hours ago, blandy said:

These leaked documents. Ukraine’s in serious trouble. About to run out of air defence munitions. If/when they do, Russia will be able to resume flights over the whole of Ukraine and bomb the heck out of the troops, Parliament, the dams, the power stations and electricity grid. Anything and everything. Grim.

Wouldn't want to be the first pilot to find out if they have run out.

[blandy]

3 hours ago, Anthony said:

If the documents are accurate. They might be. They might be disinformation. Anyone who actually knows the truth will be keeping quiet. 

Indeed. But telling the enemy you've run out (or almost have) of SAMs carries no advantage to Ukraine or the US. At the moment there are no Russian flights bombing anything (only UAVs and expensive missiles. If they can fly and drop cheaper and more numerous dumb bombs, it's a game changer.

[HKP90]

On 07/04/2023 at 13:22, blandy said:

I posted about this when it happened, but quite a bit will be recoverable. Whether it can be reverse engineered or decrypted is another matter, but I'd imagine the stuff I know about can be.

They'll be able to find out the resolution of Cameras, they'll have the MIDS data link and other radio and radar kit - it's very likely they already know the frequencies they operate on, but they'll be able to find out more. The really really key things they'll want to understand and reverse engineer are the Crypto kit and data stored on a bulk storage device (which will be encrypted, plus the military IFF stuff (Mode 5) - all that's encrypted (as are MIDS data link messages) - if they can unscramble the cryptos then that would be hugely useful for them. Crypto keys are changed, so the ones used at that time are void and gone, but the mechanisms are the er, key. I don't know if there was any anti tamper implemented on any of the equipment, but suspect not in the case of most of the things I've listed (other than the Data store, perhaps). It's a significant set back for NATO and the US in particular, in terms of protecting technological advantage, though it will likely take a fair time for Russia/Iran/China to work through it all and gain that advantage.

Given that drones operate over enemy territory, you would have thought there would be some sort of contingency for this, no?