Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[villakram]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

Russia leaves Ukraine inc Crimea.

There is only Ukraine that can decide when they are happy for peace talks

And they have consistently stated that Russia must leave all Ukrainian territory 

UK leaves Ireland, Falklands, Gibraltar and grants Australia/Canada full independence.... oh, right we're not talking about history, we're talking about now, so let's ignore that.

[magnkarl]

13 minutes ago, villakram said:

UK leaves Ireland, Falklands, Gibraltar and grants Australia/Canada full independence.... oh, right we're not talking about history, we're talking about now, so let's ignore that.

The whataboutism is astounding.

[avfc1982am]

1 hour ago, Mic09 said:

It's a hard situation isn't it.

I can assume a peace treaty is everyone's preferable option. People die. It's a priority to stop that happening through diplomacy, not gun fire. 

Just out of curiosity, what sort of a realistic proposal would you be happy with? It's unlikely Russia just gives up everything and Putin begs for forgiveness(ain't happening) and it's unlikely Ukraine wins back its territory. 

So a million dollar question, how do we end this? 

Peace would always be preferred but who cares what us in the West, South, North or anyone other than Ukrainians want? 

Yes we are helping, but Ukrainians are paying with blood, not pound coins. What we want or would be happy with is irrelevant and the idea we can discuss what suits us is ridiculous unless you're effected by what is happening. Obviously peace would be the best but it's not for anyone other the Ukrainians to decide what it all worth to them. Think about how many Ukrainian civilians have been killed, maimed or displaced.... X 10 family members each and you might find a figure close to those that want revenge against Russians at any cost. Then think about how to convince them to give up arms, not those uninvolved.  

We don't end anything in this conflict, Ukraine and Russia do, and they'll decide what it will cost. 

[blandy]

1 hour ago, chrisp65 said:

If Putin gains a metre of land, then he has won.

I disagree. It depends on what you define as "won", and where you draw a line, I guess, but if Russia, say retained Crimea (taken in 2014) and a small bit of border lands that's an example IMO of "being given a way to save face". The flip side of that card is that Russia has lost huge amounts of men and materiel, money, hit to the economy, hit to Putin's reputation at home and abroad, a stronger NATO, loss of Gas and Oil markets in Europe...loads of stuff. As an individual and as a leader he is and will be weakened, whatever spin is put on it in Russia or elsewhere.

I really, genuinely can't see anyone "winning"  - emerging out of this horror in a better place than they were. Perhaps Zelensky, who's reputation is massively enhanced, but at what cost?

[MakemineVanilla]

10 minutes ago, blandy said:

I really, genuinely can't see anyone "winning" ....

Britain managed to, fail to protect Poland, gave away Czechoslovakia, bankrupted itself and lost the Empire; and we still claimed to have won - so anything is possible.

[chrisp65]

27 minutes ago, blandy said:

I disagree. It depends on what you define as "won", and where you draw a line, I guess, but if Russia, say retained Crimea (taken in 2014) and a small bit of border lands that's an example IMO of "being given a way to save face". The flip side of that card is that Russia has lost huge amounts of men and materiel, money, hit to the economy, hit to Putin's reputation at home and abroad, a stronger NATO, loss of Gas and Oil markets in Europe...loads of stuff. As an individual and as a leader he is and will be weakened, whatever spin is put on it in Russia or elsewhere.

I really, genuinely can't see anyone "winning"  - emerging out of this horror in a better place than they were. Perhaps Zelensky, who's reputation is massively enhanced, but at what cost?

 

I suspect the Russians are measuring win by a different metric. That they sell their oil and gas eastward not westward, that they’ve had to strengthen links with Iran, that they’ve lost personnel as valiant war heroes defending the motherland, that people he will never meet may have been economically disadvantaged. None of that will matter when in 20 years time they all look back and the red line around Russia expanded outward. They’ll look at land regained and in simple terms it will be Putin that did that.

Other nations joining NATO or the EU will only be the proof of why they needed to act to defend themselves.

[blandy]

4 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

I suspect the Russians are measuring win by a different metric. That they sell their oil and gas eastward not westward, that they’ve had to strengthen links with Iran, that they’ve lost personnel as valiant war heroes defending the motherland, that people he will never meet may have been economically disadvantaged. None of that will matter when in 20 years time they all look back and the red line around Russia expanded outward. They’ll look at land regained and in simple terms it will be Putin that did that.

Other nations joining NATO or the EU will only be the proof of why they needed to act to defend themselves.

Yes, I agree. Or at least the Russian leaders are "measuring" it that way. How convincing they are, either to themselves or their population is perhaps another matter. SO far they seem to be doing that successfully.

[sidcow]

1 hour ago, villakram said:

UK leaves Ireland, Falklands, Gibraltar and grants Australia/Canada full independence.... oh, right we're not talking about history, we're talking about now, so let's ignore that.

I mean the people of Australia and Canada have full independence. 

The people of Gibraltar and The Falklands WANT to be part of the UK and would take exception to bring told they've got to be ruled from elsewhere. 

Now if we went into Australia, bombed them to shit and murdered thousands of women and children and tortured and mutilated hundreds more saying it's because they should never have had the independence we gave them, then yes you'd be right on the money. 

[magnkarl]

49 minutes ago, blandy said:

I disagree. It depends on what you define as "won", and where you draw a line, I guess, but if Russia, say retained Crimea (taken in 2014) and a small bit of border lands that's an example IMO of "being given a way to save face". The flip side of that card is that Russia has lost huge amounts of men and materiel, money, hit to the economy, hit to Putin's reputation at home and abroad, a stronger NATO, loss of Gas and Oil markets in Europe...loads of stuff. As an individual and as a leader he is and will be weakened, whatever spin is put on it in Russia or elsewhere.

I really, genuinely can't see anyone "winning"  - emerging out of this horror in a better place than they were. Perhaps Zelensky, who's reputation is massively enhanced, but at what cost?

The thing is that Crimea has massive amounts of gas and oil around it. Putin can’t be seen to win anything as it’ll embolden him, and Georgia or Moldova will be next.

Only Ukraine or Russia can decide when this war is over, Ukraine has repeatedly stated that they are going to retake it all. ‘Us’ saying they should give anything away to a genocidal dictator is about as stupid as giving Sudetenland to Hitler.

[Jareth]

Ukraine can only end the war by securing their future, either by themselves or by a greater power guaranteeing it. I think ultimately this is about other countries finding the solution, while in the meantime Ukraine try their best to kick Russia out, which I hope they do. 

[blandy]

1 minute ago, magnkarl said:

Us’ saying they should give anything away to a genocidal dictator is about as stupid as ...

Don't get me wrong - it's up to Ukraine what their terms are, not us. While they've got the backing of the west, they are able to hold that position. If the west lost interest, then it becomes more difficult.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

TASS is reporting that German oil imports from Russia have reduced by 99.9% in 2023.

 

 

[bickster]

Just now, Mandy Lifeboats said:

TASS is reporting that German oil imports from Russia have reduced by 99.9% in 2023.

 

 

rounding error hopefully

[Panto_Villan]

2 hours ago, avfc1982am said:

You've not really thought this out. 

"Nazi's in Ukraine". It's a narrative because Russian influence has capsized in Ukraine. They cannot pilfer and pillage under the cover of the Ukrainian government anymore. That's why the narratives are constructed to go to war. Putin was never killing a few Nazi's and pissing off back over the border with a job done and a wave. 

No, but it's still a handy face-saving cover story he could use if / when he does eventually realise that this war isn't going to play out the way he wants it to.

[Panto_Villan]

The war isn't going to end until one or both sides feel like further fighting won't help them achieve their goals. Right now Ukraine feels like it can win the long war because of all the Western backing it is getting, and Russia feels like it can win the long war because the West will eventually tire of supporting the war and Russia has a much larger population it can throw into the grinder. Why would either side agree a compromise when they think they can get a better result if they keep fighting?

The upcoming Ukrainian counter-attack will be interesting to watch, but there's a very real chance it won't be decisive either way and this war could rumble on for many more months and potentially even years. Kharkhiv was a huge military success for Ukraine but it didn't win the war for them.

But there are plenty of ways this war could suddenly come to a quick end with a total victory for Ukraine - a full-on rout of the Russian forces is possible, depending on how hollowed-out they've become after a year of attrition. Or a coup in Russia if the costs of the war become too much to bear. Neither is likely, of course, but if Ukraine continues to slowly push forward and keeps getting Western backing I don't think they'll ever feel obliged to sign a compromise peace deal.

Russia's never going to be permitted to get total victory over Ukraine (e.g. conquering the whole country) but if the Ukrainian counterattack doesn't go particularly well, they might find that Republican obstructionism in Congress starts to reduce Western willingness to back Ukraine. That's probably the scenario that the Russians are hoping to get when they drag the war out. They'd have the upper hand in negotiations at that point.

So there's a lot riding on this Ukranian counter-offensive. But even if it goes well, it might not end the war just yet.

[avfc1982am]

1 hour ago, Panto_Villan said:

No, but it's still a handy face-saving cover story he could use if / when he does eventually realise that this war isn't going to play out the way he wants it to.

Only to pacify idiots. 

[Mic09]

3 hours ago, MakemineVanilla said:

Britain managed to, fail to protect Poland, gave away Czechoslovakia, bankrupted itself and lost the Empire; and we still claimed to have won - so anything is possible.

That is some big time hindsight thinking. The people making decisions back then we're the same people who experienced, first hand, the worst conflict in human history just 20 years earlier. They had to do anything to avoid a 2nd one that's similar, and rightly so. 

I'm Polish, and I have no hard feelings. Because the stakes were another millions dead - and I can't make such big time moral calls with a clear conscience. 

[fruitvilla]

4 minutes ago, Mic09 said:

I'm Polish, and I have no hard feelings. Because the stakes were another millions dead - and I can't make such big time moral calls with a clear conscience. 

I understand ... My heritage is Latvian. I can say my parents' generation in exile did feel sold out by Churchill though. Worryingly though, we have a track record: the aftermaths of wars like Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan x2, and Iraq to guide us to avoid such an outcome.

[tinker]

This war weakens Russia considerably , its ability to physically  intervene in any other countries political struggles is a massive benefit to NATO and the EU.

The longer it goes on the more they itd damaged , its a balancing act though as they might damage the Ukraine to such an extent  it won't be able to build a stable political  system , supported by its own military to ward off any future  aggressions from Russia once this war grinds to a halt. 

Ukraines supporters could bring this to end quicker with increased support and training, they are choosing to prolong it in order to weaken Russia's influence on former Eastern block countries.  Its risky, 

Putin can still cause devastating damage to the EU..... a stray missile hitting a nuclear  power station, I think he's Threatening this with his recent strikes close to a nuclear station with his hypersonic missiles. 

[Genie]

4 hours ago, sidcow said:

Sounds like a plan. 

Give him 1m along the border. Jobs a good'un

Troll him by saying it’s a meter but it’s actually only 90cm