Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Genie]

It’ll be interesting to see what Boris does if Ukraine and Russia come to an agreement to end the war.

He publicly said that the rest of world failed to deal with Putin / Russia several times in the recent past. Will he do anything further than the sanctions already in place? I doubt it.

Edited March 16, 2022 by Genie

[hippo]

2 minutes ago, Genie said:

It’ll be interesting to see what Boris does if Ukraine and Russia come to an agreement to end the war.

He publicly said that the rest of world failed to deal with Putin / Russia several times in the recent past. Will he do anything further than the sanctions already in place? I doubt it.

To be fair what else can he do ?

I don't actually think Ukraine and  Russia will shake hands and become best of neighbours in any case. It will be a tense couple of years after any such agreement in any case. There was an agreement in place before Feb 24 as I understand it.

[Genie]

6 minutes ago, hippo said:

To be fair what else can he do ?

I don't actually think Ukraine and  Russia will shake hands and become best of neighbours in any case. It will be a tense couple of years after any such agreement in any case. There was an agreement in place before Feb 24 as I understand it.

I just wonder if he’d continue ramping up sanctions to try and finish Putin off (ou er), keep them the same, or succumb to some cheap oil and wind things back at bit for good behaviour.

[KentVillan]

 

[Lichfield Dean]

This just makes no sense to me. Putin has destroyed half a country, killed thousands, lost half his army, and is preparing to withdraw with everything... exactly as it was before??? Huh?

Edited March 16, 2022 by Lichfield Dean

[hippo]

18 minutes ago, Genie said:

I just wonder if he’d continue ramping up sanctions to try and finish Putin off (ou er), keep them the same, or succumb to some cheap oil and wind things back at bit for good behaviour.

If we push to hard on sanctions there is a risk that Russia over time could be totally dependent on China - which would give china massive world influence - something the west would like to avoid.

Not as easy as first appears.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

2 minutes ago, Lichfield Dean said:

This just makes no sense to me. Putin had destroyed half a country, killed thousands, lost half his army, and is preparing to withdraw with everything... exactly as it was before??? Huh?

The total cost of this war to Russia and the Brand that is Russia is incalculable.  Who wants to go and do business there again ? Who will be first to say,   that's enough time,  forget about the people you murdered ?

Financially they need to be crippled forever.  Russia cannot be trusted again,  if they have surplus money they spend it on weapons and kill 1000's every decade or so.  Remove the ability to do this.

They need to just survive until they get a human being in charge IMO.

It makes no sense becasue Putin has the mind of a small child,  nothing more than that.

 

[KentVillan]

7 minutes ago, Lichfield Dean said:

This just makes no sense to me. Putin has destroyed half a country, killed thousands, lost half his army, and is preparing to withdraw with everything... exactly as it was before??? Huh?

Agree, although it's been hard to make much sense of Putin's strategy throughout this conflict.

[hippo]

18 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

 

 

Sounds like "NATO lite" for ukraine. Can't see that working 

 

[hippo]

3 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

The total cost of this war to Russia and the Brand that is Russia is incalculable.  Who wants to go and do business there again ? Who will be first to say,   that's enough time,  forget about the people you murdered ?

Financially they need to be crippled forever.  Russia cannot be trusted again,  if they have surplus money they spend it on weapons and kill 1000's every decade or so.  Remove the ability to do this.

They need to just survive until they get a human being in charge IMO.

It makes no sense becasue Putin has the mind of a small child,  nothing more than that.

 

See above Russia will get ever closer if not dependent on China. not good for long term global security.

[LondonLax]

10 minutes ago, Lichfield Dean said:

This just makes no sense to me. Putin has destroyed half a country, killed thousands, lost half his army, and is preparing to withdraw with everything... exactly as it was before??? Huh?

Unless he thought he would win but now realises he’s losing and is looking for a way to back out and save face?

[bickster]

That is a serious dent in one go, whether it's 15 or the claimed 30, it's still a lot of choppers to lose in one hit

 

[Davkaus]

It'll be interesting to see if "lol, that didn't work, I'll withdraw now" is enough to make the west relax the sanctions and just go back to business as usual.

I'm guessing that it will in terms of diplomacy, so we'll lift sanctions on Russia and its oligarchs, but continue to tamp up efforts to remove any dependence on them for energy for when they try this shit again.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

2 minutes ago, hippo said:

Russia over time could be totally dependent on China

Hmmm,  not so sure.  Russia,  for over 50 % of the worlds economy is now a bit Jimmy Saville in terms of overall popularity.

If all goes to plan the Russian economy will reduce to such a size that I don't see a gain for China,  only Brand Reputation risk by association.  (What happens if Putin goes for another country and they are holding hands with Putin in economic terms) 

[chrisp65]

Just now, Davkaus said:

It'll be interesting to see if "lol, that didn't work, I'll withdraw now" is enough to make the west relax the sanctions and just go back to business as usual.

I'm guessing that it will in terms of diplomacy, so we'll lift sanctions on Russia and its oligarchs, but continue to tamp up efforts to remove any dependence on them for energy for when they try this shit again.

What you have to ask yourself, is once the killing has stopped, once its off the evening news, will the banks and sponsored politicians be happy to take a moral stand and continue seeing their profits harmed?

I think we all know the answer.

[sidcow]

9 minutes ago, Lichfield Dean said:

This just makes no sense to me. Putin has destroyed half a country, killed thousands, lost half his army, and is preparing to withdraw with everything... exactly as it was before??? Huh?

It does if you think he believed he would rollover Ukraine in 3 days.  His spies he was told he had inside the Ukraine Parliament  would quickly takeover and the Ukrainian people would welcome him with open arms.

He's had extremely bad intelligence from his yes men, he's sacked some spy chiefs.

He thought he could get it done and dusted quickly with little loss to his army and without the rest of the world having time to react.

Instead he's lost immense numbers of troops and hardware, made his armed forces a bit of a laughing stock, had the world unite against him and destroyed his economy and his peoples way of life.

He's probably just trying to salvage whatever he can right now.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

2 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

is enough to make the west relax the sanction

I think they need to go through a country training program first.  Play nice and reduce them over 10 - 20 years.

Or,  Putin to go to the Haag (War crimes)and they all disappear tomorrow,  how's that ? 

[sidcow]

5 minutes ago, bickster said:

That is a serious dent in one go, whether it's 15 or the claimed 30, it's still a lot of choppers to lose in one hit

 

Yep, even one serious hit on a chopper is going to hurt.

[tinker]

17 minutes ago, Lichfield Dean said:

This just makes no sense to me. Putin has destroyed half a country, killed thousands, lost half his army, and is preparing to withdraw with everything... exactly as it was before??? Huh?

He's surrendered, retreating with his tail between his legs.

[KentVillan]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/biden-answered-3-am-call/626976/

Quote

Biden Answered the 3 a.m. Call

It’s hard to imagine that any of his rivals from the last election could have matched the president’s performance in this crisis.

By Franklin Foer

...

Joe Biden hasn’t received the full credit he deserves for his statecraft during this crisis, because he has pursued a policy of self-effacement. Rather than touting his accomplishments in mobilizing a unified global response to the invasion, he has portrayed the stringent sanctions as the triumph of an alliance. By carefully limiting his own public role—and letting France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz take turns as the lead faces of NATO—he has left Vladimir Putin with little opportunity to portray the conflict as a standoff with the United States, a narrative that the Russian leader would clearly prefer. He’s shown how to wield American leadership in the face of deep European ambivalence about its exercise.

His handling of the domestic politics of the crisis has been just as savvy. Although he could justifiably have portrayed Republicans as the party of Putin apologists, he refrained from dinging his political enemies. During his State of the Union address, he actively encouraged Republicans to feel as if they were his partners in a popular front.

... When Putin announced that he was putting his nuclear arsenal into “special combat readiness,” Biden quickly made clear that he wouldn’t reciprocate. He has brushed off calls to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine. From the start of his administration, he has tried to telegraph his thinking to Putin, so that the Russian leader could never misunderstand his intentions, and would never mistakenly assume that an American strike against Russia was imminent.

...

It’s a quietly bravura performance—and it’s hard to imagine that any of Biden’s rivals from the last election, not just Donald Trump but also the Democrats, could have come close to matching it. If anything, it is reminiscent of how George H. W. Bush led the world through the end of the Cold War, a similarly chaotic moment that could have easily exploded into nuclear conflict. In the middle of Joe Biden’s 3 a.m. call, I find myself grateful that he’s the one answering the phone.

Whole article is good, but pasted the key bits.