Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[OutByEaster?]

I don't think the question really should revolve around whether the Russians do bad things, of course they do. They're a state run by oligarchs.

I think the interesting thing is why the bad things they do are becoming more and more highly publicised, why there's a rush to paint the big bad Russia back into the social psyche. I mean, Boris (I know) today claimed that Putin would use the world cup like Hitler used the Olympics in 1936 - that's straight out of propaganda 101 - "Look everybody, he's Hitler!".

If you look at other people doing bad things, then for example, the Saudi's bad things aren't talked about in the press, they're certainly not talked about in public by anyone in politics - they're understood, they're accepted and they're kept away from the public. The same things happen with Israel, with the US in South America, with nations across the pacific rim who accept US bases and with a host of nations globally. Doing bad things is a standard practice for international actors.

Russia has committed a number of sins - it's resisted in Ukraine, it's supported Assad in Syria and won the phoney war (remember kids, it's only okay to bomb Syrian civilians if it's our bombs - anything else goes front page of the papers) and as pointed out a few pages back, it's lost its position as the key global gas supplier. It's achieved two unwanted goals, it's become both troublesome and unnecessary.

Now, none of that is in any way intended to paint Mr Putin as anything other than the cold hearted pragmatist that he is, a man who for the sake of Russias monied will quite happily murder a political nuisance anywhere around the globe. He's all of that and more. Much like our own leaders. 

But he does now fulfil a valuable requirement - we need a bad guy to drive commerce and people weren't as scared as they used to be of the brown men in the dresses - I've very little doubt that Russia killed Comrade Skripal, but I've also very little doubt that if it happened four years ago our front pages would have had it down as the work of ISIS or buried it on page 9.

Still, sometimes to get things to sell at the box office, you just need to reboot the franchise - it worked in the 80's and it can work now.

Quick, check under the beds.

 

[Risso]

59 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

 

But he does now fulfil a valuable requirement - we need a bad guy to drive commerce and people weren't as scared as they used to be of the brown men in the dresses - I've very little doubt that Russia killed Comrade Skripal, but I've also very little doubt that if it happened four years ago our front pages would have had it down as the work of ISIS or buried it on page 9.

 

What utter rubbish.  Hard to even know where to begin with such an absurd statement.

[ml1dch]

1 hour ago, OutByEaster? said:

Boris (I know) today claimed that Putin would use the world cup like Hitler used the Olympics in 1936 - that's straight out of propaganda 101 - "Look everybody, he's Hitler!"

Technically, he agreed with a Labour MP who made the comparison in his question. Boris never brought the subject up.

Doesn't mean they're not both bellends (also, they're not completely wrong to a certain extent), but it's hard to lay this particular piece of propaganda at ABDPJ's door.

[peterms]

39 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Technically, he agreed with a Labour MP who made the comparison in his question. Boris never brought the subject up.

Doesn't mean they're not both bellends (also, they're not completely wrong to a certain extent), but it's hard to lay this particular piece of propaganda at ABDPJ's door.

Astonishingly crass, for both of them.

20m Russians died in WW2.  They defeated the Nazis, never mind our fairy stories about us winning the war.  They were implacably opposed to Nazis, where we had large sections of our society and our ruling class siding with them,  including, famously, ths Daily Mail.

It is still a sensitive subject in Russia.  The main reason they still more or less like us is because we held our end up in the war.

This kind of comment is on a par with turning up in Tel Aviv and making jokes about the Warsaw ghetto.

[ThunderPower_14]

3 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:

I don't think the question really should revolve around whether the Russians do bad things, of course they do. They're a state run by oligarchs.

I think the interesting thing is why the bad things they do are becoming more and more highly publicised, why there's a rush to paint the big bad Russia back into the social psyche. I mean, Boris (I know) today claimed that Putin would use the world cup like Hitler used the Olympics in 1936 - that's straight out of propaganda 101 - "Look everybody, he's Hitler!".

If you look at other people doing bad things, then for example, the Saudi's bad things aren't talked about in the press, they're certainly not talked about in public by anyone in politics - they're understood, they're accepted and they're kept away from the public. The same things happen with Israel, with the US in South America, with nations across the pacific rim who accept US bases and with a host of nations globally. Doing bad things is a standard practice for international actors.

Russia has committed a number of sins - it's resisted in Ukraine, it's supported Assad in Syria and won the phoney war (remember kids, it's only okay to bomb Syrian civilians if it's our bombs - anything else goes front page of the papers) and as pointed out a few pages back, it's lost its position as the key global gas supplier. It's achieved two unwanted goals, it's become both troublesome and unnecessary.

Now, none of that is in any way intended to paint Mr Putin as anything other than the cold hearted pragmatist that he is, a man who for the sake of Russias monied will quite happily murder a political nuisance anywhere around the globe. He's all of that and more. Much like our own leaders. 

But he does now fulfil a valuable requirement - we need a bad guy to drive commerce and people weren't as scared as they used to be of the brown men in the dresses - I've very little doubt that Russia killed Comrade Skripal, but I've also very little doubt that if it happened four years ago our front pages would have had it down as the work of ISIS or buried it on page 9.

Still, sometimes to get things to sell at the box office, you just need to reboot the franchise - it worked in the 80's and it can work now.

Quick, check under the beds.

 

Great post.

 

Trump was clever really. He managed to have Russia assist in his election win, and then roll that straight into the big bad Putin discussion which will get Americans looking over their shoulders and nodding in agreement with any extra defence or security measures a Republican president chooses to introduce.

[tonyh29]

42 minutes ago, peterms said:

Astonishingly crass, for both of them.

20m Russians died in WW2.  They defeated the Nazis, never mind our fairy stories about us winning the war.  They were implacably opposed to Nazis, where we had large sections of our society and our ruling class siding with them,  including, famously, ths Daily Mail.

It is still a sensitive subject in Russia.  The main reason they still more or less like us is because we held our end up in the war.

This kind of comment is on a par with turning up in Tel Aviv and making jokes about the Warsaw ghetto.

I’ve not heard what Boris said but from the posts here it appeared to be he was saying Putin would use the World Cup for Propaganda much like Hitler used the Berlin olympics 

He didn’t appear to be saying Putin would invade Poland and round up undesirables 

So dunno , not big not clever but also not really anything like a Warsaw ghetto joke in Tel Aviv either 

 

[OutByEaster?]

I have a feeling this world cup might not go entirely well for us.

 

[LondonLax]

39 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

I have a feeling this world cup might not go entirely well for us.

 

No change there then...

[tonyh29]

this article in Time was quite interesting ,  has some bias but quite a decent read none the less

Vladimir Putin may have been re-elected president of Russia on March 18, but he’s far from the grand master of geopolitical chess portrayed in the Western media. Whether bragging about Russia’s “invincible” new missile, playing coy over accusations that his hackers play games with foreign elections or that his spies murder opponents in faraway places, the Russian President seems intent on restaging the Cold War–but without the military reach or global ideological appeal that made the Soviet Union a formidable foe.

What has Putin really won? Today’s Russia has an economy smaller than that of Canada. Its entire military budget is less than the extra money President Donald Trump wants Congress to spend on U.S. defense. It has no NATO allies, and it counts countries like Venezuela, Cuba, Sudan, North Korea, Syria and Serbia among its few reliable friends. China makes occasional deals with Russia but only at a Chinese price.

While Putin wants the world to see him as a strong, decisive leader, he often fails to understand the full impact of his actions. Looking at the foreign policy fights he has picked, it’s clear that he is a shrewd short-term tactician and a lousy long-term strategist.

Let’s begin with Ukraine. In response to the public protests in 2014 that ousted President Viktor Yanukovych–Russia’s man in Kiev–Putin ordered Russian troops into action. Seizing Crimea gave Putin a trophy at the West’s expense and boosted his tough-guy reputation. But freeing Ukraine of its most pro-Moscow region eased the way for Ukrainian nationalists to win the country’s elections and left Russia responsible for paying pensions in a place full of pensioners. Meanwhile, the Russian navy gained nothing of strategic value in Crimea; it already had a base on that peninsula. For all this, Putin invited sanctions from the U.S. and Europe–which contributed to a drop in Russia’s GDP from 2014 to 2015 that the World Bank put at 35%.

 

Nor did Putin win the hearts and minds of the people he tried to subdue. His move to destabilize Ukraine’s eastern regions led an entire generation of Ukrainians–too young to remember life in an empire governed by Moscow–to believe that Russia was their country’s bitter enemy. Ukraine may not move quickly toward the E.U. or NATO, but there is now a deep determination among many Ukrainians to never again serve as Russia’s junior partner. Putin may well be remembered as the Russian who lost Ukraine.

What about other former Soviet republics? The Baltic states–Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia–have long since turned to the West; NATO troops are even stationed there now, a direct result of Russia’s continued antagonism. Azerbaijan and the Central Asian states are more interested in long-term ties with rising China than with rusting Russia. If there is a dominant power in central Asia today, it’s strategic and hungry Beijing–to Moscow’s increasing chagrin.

In his quest for influence, Putin can look to Syrian President Bashar Assad, Russia’s only reliable Middle East partner, to claim victory over former U.S. President Barack Obama. Russia will now get to keep its one Mediterranean naval base. But to what end? Deeper involvement in the Middle East is not a good thing for a country with a stagnant economy that already spends too much on its military.

Putin’s worst decision was the green light he gave his intelligence services to play with the 2016 U.S. presidential election. It wasn’t a surprising move; manipulation and sabotage are art forms in which any former KGB lieutenant colonel will take pride. Putin wanted to bring the U.S. down a peg, and he hated Hillary Clinton. No evidence has yet emerged that Putin made Trump President, but the U.S. intelligence community and lawmakers of both parties are now focused on threats posed by Russia. Yet in spite of Trump’s fascinating refusal to criticize Putin, Russia’s President has gained nothing of value from the U.S. President. Only Putin’s failure to understand the checks and balances at the heart of the U.S. political system explains his apparent belief that Trump could override all objections to his would-be Russia reset. Sanctions aren’t going away. Now that Russia’s secret services stand accused of brazenly poisoning Sergei Skripal, a former double agent exiled in the U.K., more may be coming

 

Putin’s adventurism has so far helped divert the attention of the Russian public away from endemic corruption and economic stagnation at home. There, his one lasting achievement is ensuring the independence of the country’s central bank and stashing away money in reserve funds during good times for use in bad times.

Russia is slowly emerging from two years of recession, mainly because oil prices have enjoyed a modest recovery. But as Putin begins his fourth term as President, he’ll face a stark reality: Russia remains as deeply dependent on oil prices as when he took office a generation ago. Ten years ago, the oil price climbed to $147 per barrel, and Russian living standards and self-confidence rose with it. Since then, the price has fallen to less than half that amount and looks set to remain there for the foreseeable future. And the U.S. is at the heart of a revolutionary shift in energy markets: technological innovation in crude oil and natural gas production has helped the U.S. rival Russia and keep prices much lower than during the commodity boom of the past decade

 

There’s no evidence that Russia will adjust to this new reality by finally diversifying its economy. Even today, about 80% of Russia’s exports are directly related to oil and gas, according to the Carnegie Center in Moscow. It will slowly become harder for Russians to maintain their standard of living, and the state will have less money to spend on both guns and butter. Recent efforts to create a Russian version of Silicon Valley have produced little. That’s in part because Russia’s smartest and most talented minds have every reason to leave the country in search of better opportunities.

Putin should enjoy his victory celebration while it lasts. He and his country don’t have much else on the horizon.

[Brumerican]

On 21/03/2018 at 20:50, OutByEaster? said:

I've very little doubt that Russia killed Comrade Skripal.

Is he dead ?

[villakram]

4 hours ago, tonyh29 said:

this article in Time was quite interesting ,  has some bias but quite a decent read none the less

 

 

Another way to think of things...

Had Obama gotten his way, Russia would have been removed from the Med basin for the first time in centuries, dramatically altering the geo-strategic balance. Ditto, they have long term fuel supply relationships now established with China and via the SCO are increasing the integration of Euroasia. You can only win all the time if the game is rigged, and on the balance of things Russia pretty solidly (yup, plenty of shit going on for folks who live there, but our leaders aren't doing anything to fix our decreasing standards of living). The maintenance and expansion of the empire on the other hand is having a little trouble these days.

[Brumerican]

22 minutes ago, Brumerican said:

Is he dead ?

Does anybody really think people with nerve agent poisoning go to an NHS ICU ?

The dude's alive in DSTL in my opinion.

[chrisp65]

25 minutes ago, Brumerican said:

Is he dead ?

I suspect he is, all but technically.

Alive by virtue of 'machines that go ping' until we've taken enough samples, that's my guess.

[Brumerican]

Just now, chrisp65 said:

I suspect he is, all but technically.

Alive by virtue of 'machines that go ping' until we've taken enough samples, that's my guess.

[OutByEaster?]

I keep forgetting he's still with us. 

Sos' Sergei.

 

 

[peterms]

On 23/03/2018 at 16:01, chrisp65 said:

I suspect he is, all but technically.

Alive by virtue of 'machines that go ping' until we've taken enough samples, that's my guess.

Well, he seems to be still alive,  and his daughter is recovering.

They're tough, these Russians.  Having been exposed to military grade nerve agents, designed to kill in minutes, they got in their car, drove into town, turned off their mobiles for four hours, went for a drink, went for a meal, were photographed by a mystery man still to be identified, went for a walk, and only then collapsed.

That's pretty impressive.

[chrisp65]

Just now, peterms said:

Well, he seems to be still alive,  and his daughter is recovering.

They're tough, these Russians.  Having been exposed to military grade nerve agents, designed to kill in minutes, they got in their car, drove into town, turned off their mobiles for four hours, went for a drink, went for a meal, were photographed by a mystery man still to be identified, went for a walk, and only then collapsed.

That's pretty impressive.

yeah, but I'd still pass on the grapes the russian embassy want to personally deliver

[peterms]

So Porton Down say it can't be shown that the poison came from Russia.

This contradicts what Johnson said, that Porton Down had categorically said it did.

It also supports what Craig Murray said about what Porton Down were prepared to agree to.

No surprise that Johnson is found to have lied, again.  What I don't get is why the government put up someone from Porton Down to say this and so expose Johnson's lies.  They would have known what the Porton Down guy was going to say.  Perhaps they think they can just bluster through, and say that there is other evidence that can't be revealed and we will have to rake it on trust.

[blandy]

8 hours ago, peterms said:

So Porton Down say it can't be shown that the poison came from Russia.

This contradicts what Johnson said, that Porton Down had categorically said it did.

It also supports what Craig Murray said about what Porton Down were prepared to agree to.

No surprise that Johnson is found to have lied, again.  What I don't get is why the government put up someone from Porton Down to say this and so expose Johnson's lies.  They would have known what the Porton Down guy was going to say.  Perhaps they think they can just bluster through, and say that there is other evidence that can't be revealed and we will have to rake it on trust.

It's interesting on multiple levels.

I dunno, but I would imagine there are a few different things going on here.

Firstly the international body will be doing exactly the same thing as DSTL - and will scientifically no doubt come up with the same result. So DSTL (and/or the Gov't) will want to prepare the ground for that independent result coming out.

Secondly, while it's theoretically possible to specifically identify exactly where the stuff came from, you'd need the "signature" of the stuff from the location it was originally produced, in order to do the match. It's possible DSTL might have that signature, but not wish to reveal that - maybe it could have been obtained through espionage or whatever. Or it's possible they don't have it, and so can only get to "it's a novichok" and "it's stuff that needs sophisticated nation state facilities to make" and so on. 

Thirdly, neither the DSTL man, nor Boris Johnson actually said quite what they're being protrayed as saying. The TV clips I saw had the DSTL man saying "it's not our job to say where it came from" and Johnson asked a question about if they had a sample of the original stuff at Porton Down answered his own, unspoken question, infering that he has asked a DSTL bod a question to which the answer was a definite yes. Devious and transparently dishonest, but not a lie.

Fourthly, there's the potential of deliberate undermining (hoisting by his own petard) of Johnson - maybe in the context of Brexit, maybe in the context of rivalry for leadership..who knows...

And ultimately, none of it changes anything. The attack was either done with Russian state involvement, on the orders of Putin, or was done by people using stuff Russia had lost control of (and done in order to please Putin).

[tonyh29]

9 hours ago, peterms said:

 

It also supports what Craig Murray said about what Porton Down were prepared to agree to.

 

Craig Murray who said the government would make Porton Down lie  and then ended with a * leading you to a nudge nudge wink wink unless the person doesn't lie like David Kelly did and implying a load more conspiracy nonsense 

I wasted a bit of time reading some of his stuff , he's the internet conspiracists equivalent of a Twiitter transfer  In the Know  , just a bit more needy

 

If the government have got allies to expel Russians on a lie then I'd imagine it will be bye bye government  , however the evidence that is being presented to world leaders seems compelling enough for them to have acted   ...guess time will tell