The push for the Play offs ?

[Demitri_C]

The most exciting thing for me is we are playing pretty poorly but getting the results. That us slowly showing signs of a good team. If brucie can sort out the cm I think we have a good chance for the play offs. Hopefully Newcastle implode and we can challenge fir 2nd but unlikely.

leeds is a must win for me. If we lose we will be so far behind them

[dont_do_it_doug.]

1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said:

It's not unprecedented, but 5 out of 36 is not a huge proportion, especially when one of the cases, Forest, has a large asterisk next to it. 

The reason I focus on position rather than points is that position reflects the number of teams you need to better over the course of the second half of the season. There's a fairly good argument that it would be better to be 9 points behind in 7th than 4 points behind in 10th. 

I'm not saying it's impossible, just that I don't think setting something very unlikely as an expectation is fair to Bruce. 

You're thinking about it wrong. We don't need to finish in all 4 playoff positions, only 1. So it's 5 from 9. 

Really we should do some kind of points + positions average, but I'm still working out how to do that myself. If I come up with a way I'll have a go! 

Edited December 28, 2016 by dont_do_it_doug.

[rubberman]

2 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

The reason I focus on position rather than points is that position reflects the number of teams you need to better over the course of the second half of the season. There's a fairly good argument that it would be better to be 9 points behind in 7th than 4 points behind in 10th. 

 

This for me.  

Bruce took over when we were 19th.  We've overtaken 9 clubs in that time, not least Norwich and Blues.  Only Brighton have lost fewer games and we're the only club unbeaten at home.  We are definitely on track to make it to the play off places at this rate.

[One For The Road]

24 minutes ago, rubberman said:

We've overtaken 9 clubs in that time, not least Norwich and Blues.  Only Brighton have lost fewer games and we're the only club unbeaten at home.  We are definitely on track to make it to the play off places at this rate.

And yet despite those facts we are still a good way off the play offs. If we have a bad run of results at some point (which is likely in any season) then surely at least one of those teams between us and 6th will have a good run and increase that gap further. 

It's going to be very, very tough. Not impossible, but I really don't think we are 'on course' for the top 6. Not with that midfield and with our top scorer heading off to Africa, as well as the rather poor performances we are churning out.

[Tommo_b]

18 minutes ago, One For The Road said:

And yet despite those facts we are still a good way off the play offs. If we have a bad run of results at some point (which is likely in any season) then surely at least one of those teams between us and 6th will have a good run and increase that gap further. 

It's going to be very, very tough. Not impossible, but I really don't think we are 'on course' for the top 6. Not with that midfield and with our top scorer heading off to Africa, as well as the rather poor performances we are churning out.

A bad run of results is likely for most teams in this division, we might've already had our bad run already beginning of the season. 

[KSV]

Well we only have one more game with this midfield. Hopefully this will be rectified pretty quickly in January

[sne]

I fear the period before we hopefully get our new (midfield) signings in and up and running will overlap the period Kodija & Ayew are at the AFCON.

And if this period drags on this could kill our momentum.

Early transfers ready to play from day 1 will be paramount. No time for any bedding in period.

[Guest av1]

2 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

leeds is a must win for me. If we lose we will be so far behind them

We will need to produce a much better performance than we did against Burton.

[One For The Road]

5 minutes ago, sne said:

I fear the period before we hopefully get our new (midfield) signings in and up and running will overlap the period Kodija & Ayew are at the AFCON.

And if this period drags on this could kill our momentum.

Early transfers ready to play from day 1 will be paramount. No time for any bedding in period.

But any new signings WILL need time to bed in and gel with the rest of the team. The shape of the side will be messed around by the AFCON too. Even if we do buy a new midfield in January, which I doubt, it'll be mid Feb/March by the time we could have a settled 1st 11 again. That's a long time to have an uncertain side and to still get the 2 points per game people are talking about.

[rubberman]

32 minutes ago, One For The Road said:

And yet despite those facts we are still a good way off the play offs. If we have a bad run of results at some point (which is likely in any season) then surely at least one of those teams between us and 6th will have a good run and increase that gap further. 

It's going to be very, very tough. Not impossible, but I really don't think we are 'on course' for the top 6. Not with that midfield and with our top scorer heading off to Africa, as well as the rather poor performances we are churning out.

I hope and expect we will address the midfield in the next few weeks.  That should also impact on the forwards and start to make them gel a bit more which will mitigate the AFCON break.  For all our weaknesses, we still have a deeper squad than most in this division and that will start to tell as the season grinds on.

I agree we aren't playing at all well, and yet we are slowly but surely moving up the table.  I don't expect it to be in the next couple of games, but do expect us to get there.  It's not a given, but also I think it's eminently doable.

[sne]

1 minute ago, One For The Road said:

But any new signings WILL need time to bed in and gel with the rest of the team. The shape of the side will be messed around by the AFCON too. Even if we do buy a new midfield in January, which I doubt, it'll be mid Feb/March by the time we could have a settled 1st 11 again. That's a long time to have an uncertain side and to still get the 2 points per game people are talking about.

Yup! That is the worry.

January will be crucial and I think we will struggle.

[sne]

Still haven't been able to find out exactly when the teams will assemble for the tournament, and I assume those players playing in Europe will meet up a bit later.

But. Uganda for example have pre-tournament friendlies lined up against Gabon on the 29th, Libya on the 1st, Tunisia on the 4th and then Slovakia on the 8th.

I suspect most teams will have schedules like this.

Think me might miss Ayew and Kodija a week or so earlier than we anticipated.

 

[dont_do_it_doug.]

@HanoiVillan so I took your initial findings and ran with them. I went back 20 years and looked at any time a team outside of the top 6 at the 23 game point finished in a playoff spot that year. Warning - Massive wall of txt to follow!

96/97 - Ipswich (14th) were 4 points behind Oxford (5th) who they deposed. 

97/98 - Ipswich (13th) were 13 points behind West Brom (5th) who they deposed.

98/99 - Bolton (7th) were 1 point behind Norwich (6th) who they deposed.

99/00 - Birmingham (9th) and Bolton (11th) were 6 to 15 points behind Stockport (6th) and Huddersfield (1st) who they deposed.

00/01 - Preston (8th) were 2 points Watford (6th) who they deposed.

01/02 - Steve Bruce's Birmingham (10th) were 10 points behind Burnley (1st) who they deposed.

02/03 - Wolves (7th) were 3 points behind Norwich (4th) who they deposed. PROMOTED

03/04 - Crystal Palace (21st) were 13 points behind Wigan (4th) who they deposed. PROMOTED

04/05 - Derby (10th) and Preston (16th) were 8 points respectively behind Reading (4th) and Stoke (6th) who they deposed.

05/06 - Crystal Palace (9th) were 2 points behind Cardiff (5th) who they deposed.

*06/07 - Sunderland (11th) were 12 points behind Birmingham (1st). They finished as Champions. PROMOTED

*06/07 - West Brom (8th) and Wolves (10th) were 3 points and 1 point behind Cardiff (5th) and Colchester (6th) who they deposed.

07/08 - Hull (11th) and Crystal Palace (10th) were 5 and 7 points respectively behind Charlton (5th) and Ipswich (6th) who they deposed. Hull were PROMOTED

08/09 - Sheffield United (7th) were 1 point behind Cardiff (6th) who they deposed. 

09/10 - Blackpool (7th) were 2 points behind Swansea (6th) who they deposed.

10/11 - Notts Forest (11th) were 10 points behind Leeds (4th) who they deposed. Data skewed due to games in hand (4).

*11/12 - Birmingham (15th) were 9 points behind Hull (5th) who they deposed, however they had 2 games in hand. Blackpool (7th) were 9 points behind Boro (3rd).

*11/12 - Reading (6th) were 11 points behind Southampton (1st). They finished as Champions. PROMOTED.

12/13 - Brighton (9th) were 7 points behind Boro (4th) who they deposed.

13/14 - Brighton (8th) and Wigan (14th) were 4 and 5 points respectively behind Forest (5th) and Ipswich (6th) who they deposed.

14/15 - Norwich (7th) were 5 points behind Derby (3rd) who they deposed.

15/16 - Sheff Weds (7th) were 1 point behind Ipswich (6th) who they deposed.

.....................................................................................

In 20 seasons, 27 teams outside of the top 6 at this stage of the season have finished in the playoff spots come the end. 

On average the point gap they have overhauled is 5.51

I will work out the average number of places later on today. When I have given my brain a little rest! I hope this goes some way to steadying your nerves, it's two hours of my life after all  

Edited December 28, 2016 by dont_do_it_doug.

[One For The Road]

Bloody hell that's some research there! Fair play.

[KSV]

10 minutes ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

@HanoiVillan so I took your initial findings and ran with them. I went back 20 years and looked at any time a team outside of the top 6 at the 23 game point finished in a playoff spot that year. Warning - Massive wall of txt to follow!

96/97 - Ipswich (14th) were 4 points behind Oxford (5th) who they deposed. 

97/98 - Ipswich (13th) were 13 points behind West Brom (5th) who they deposed.

98/99 - Bolton (7th) were 1 point behind Norwich (6th) who they deposed.

99/00 - Birmingham (9th) and Bolton (11th) were 6 to 15 points behind Stockport (6th) and Huddersfield (1st) who they deposed.

00/01 - Preston (8th) were 2 points Watford (6th) who they deposed.

01/02 - Steve Bruce's Birmingham (10th) were 10 points behind Burnley (1st) who they deposed.

02/03 - Wolves (7th) were 3 points behind Norwich (4th) who they deposed. PROMOTED

03/04 - Crystal Palace (21st) were 13 points behind Wigan (4th) who they deposed. PROMOTED

04/05 - Derby (10th) and Preston (16th) were 8 points respectively behind Reading (4th) and Stoke (6th) who they deposed.

05/06 - Crystal Palace (9th) were 2 points behind Cardiff (5th) who they deposed.

*06/07 - Sunderland (11th) were 12 points behind Birmingham (1st). They finished as Champions. PROMOTED

*06/07 - West Brom (8th) and Wolves (10th) were 3 points and 1 point behind Cardiff (5th) and Colchester (6th) who they deposed.

07/08 - Hull (11th) and Crystal Palace (10th) were 5 and 7 points respectively behind Charlton (5th) and Ipswich (6th) who they deposed. Hull were PROMOTED

08/09 - Sheffield United (7th) were 1 point behind Cardiff (6th) who they deposed. 

09/10 - Blackpool (7th) were 2 points behind Swansea (6th) who they deposed.

10/11 - Notts Forest (11th) were 10 points behind Leeds (4th) who they deposed. Data skewed due to games in hand (4).

*11/12 - Birmingham (15th) were 9 points behind Hull (5th) who they deposed, however they had 2 games in hand. Blackpool (7th) were 9 points behind Boro (3rd).

*11/12 - Reading (6th) were 11 points behind Southampton (1st). They finished as Champions. PROMOTED.

12/13 - Brighton (9th) were 7 points behind Boro (4th) who they deposed.

13/14 - Brighton (8th) and Wigan (14th) were 4 and 5 points respectively behind Forest (5th) and Ipswich (6th) who they deposed.

14/15 - Norwich (7th) were 5 points behind Derby (3rd) who they deposed.

15/16 - Sheff Weds (7th) were 1 point behind Ipswich (6th) who they deposed.

.....................................................................................

In 20 seasons, 27 teams outside of the top 6 at this stage of the season have finished in the playoff spots come the end. 

On average the point gap they have overhauled is 5.51

I will work out the average number of places later on today. When I have given my brain a little rest! I hope this goes some way to steadying your nerves, it's two hours of my life after all  

Hope restored! Unless we lose Leeds. Season will be over !

 

[HanoiVillan]

30 minutes ago, sne said:

Still haven't been able to find out exactly when the teams will assemble for the tournament, and I assume those players playing in Europe will meet up a bit later.

But. Uganda for example have pre-tournament friendlies lined up against Gabon on the 29th, Libya on the 1st, Tunisia on the 4th and then Slovakia on the 8th.

I suspect most teams will have schedules like this.

Think me might miss Ayew and Kodija a week or so earlier than we anticipated.

 

They snuck in under the radar didn't they. 

[sne]

Just now, HanoiVillan said:

They snuck in under the radar didn't they. 

Bit like Japan in the Copa America

[Grasshopper]

Its quite simple to "calculate" if we are to get promoted or not

1) Champions - no chance, thats for Newcastle & Brighton to fight that one out

2) 2nd - unless one of the above completely lose it, no chance

3) 3rd 4th are really not worth looking at (explained later)

4) 5th is possible

5) 6th is our holy grail (above is a bonus)

We can only target the team directly above us from game to game but more like every 2nd game (1H 1A).

by getting 1win & 1 draw we slowly tread water

The teams 5th to 8th will always be the ones to keep an eye on because they will most likely be 2/3 results away from climbing in or dropping out of the top 6.

we simply must dovetail 9th till we're 9th, 8th till we're 8th, 7th till we're 7th & 6th till we're 6th whoever they are.

each step will take a different amount of games but look at it this way

We are 6pts off 6th with 23 to play

will 6th place lose 6 games from 23?

possibly

of those 6 losses could we draw 6?

possibly

GD would also be at least +6

now to gain 6pts over 23 games would mean over the next 4 games (wk27) we would need to better them by 1 result (a draw over a Loss), wk31 4 games later, wk35 another 4 games later, wk39, wk42 then we would have the last 3 games to take Max pts and see who folds (5th or 6th or both)

detailed - a Loss-Loss would gain us nothing on 6th, at worst would mean 1 or 2 overtake us

a Loss-draw would cost us 1pt

a Loss-win would cost us three which we cant afford to let happen more than once

every Win-draw/loss gets us closer. This "Win-draw/loss" senario only needs to happen an average of 4-5 times over 23 games if we run parallel results to whoever is 6th at any particular time.

Every time we lose, we, at worst, lose 3pts to 6th - meaning from the remaining 23 games we increase the Win-draw/loss by average of 1/2 (1 win-loss or 1 win-draw/loss to get 3pts back or 4pts on 6th)

Bruce just has to continue at 2pts a game or even 2+pts to gain on 6th (maybe on 5th too)

I think current form tells us 

Newcastle & Brighton 1 & 2

Leeds, Reading or Derby 3 & 4

leaving 6th open for Huddersfield, ShefW, Fulham & us to battle it out.

Having said current form, I can see Reading (Stams inexperience) & Derby (McSteev f***ing up like he always does) falling away from 3rd definately 4th possibly maybe even 5th/6th.

The question really is

Are we better than Hudd, ShefW & Fulham atm?

I think we are at least on a par at getting results.

After the JanWin will they be stronger than us?

Definate NO from me

6pts make up (GD automatically gets better) on 6th (Hudd, ShefW or Fulham) is definately on.

Playoffs on Good form and the Villa faithfull in full voice will scare the shit out of em all. Nothing to fear.

Come on Villa, Bruce and DrT you know we can do it

UTV

VTID

[dont_do_it_doug.]

9 minutes ago, Grasshopper said:

Its quite simple to "calculate" if we are to get promoted or not

Well, it's quite easy to "guess" if that's what you mean

My guess is that we will. But we will need to spend money in Jan. 

Edited December 28, 2016 by dont_do_it_doug.

[alreadyexists]

It's quite exciting really isn't it? All this not knowing what will happen. 

Last season it was so obvious we were boned from about December onwards, thinking we have a chance is giving me hope.