PompeyVillan Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 If we can get ourselves into 6th we'll then start looking to take shots at teams above us, we'll need to further improve but it's not wildly impossible that with an incredible run of form we could start bothering the top two. Realistically, I'll take 6th and going in via the playoffs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
One For The Road Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Didn't realise Sheffield Wednesday won at Newcastle last night. This is what I've been trying to get across for sometime. It's not just Newcastle and Brighton who are good sides in this division. There is a promotion case to be made for almost every one of the clubs currently above us in the table and I just think we have left it a bit late. It may only be 6 points to catch 6th place and if we were 7th that wouldn't be so bad. The fact is though, even if/when Sheffield Wednesday slip up, we have to win AND hope the teams between us and them also slip up. Then when we slip up we have to hope that the teams above us don't capitalise. I can't see top 6 this season I really can't. We have been on a good run lately and have hardly closed the gap on 6th at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
One For The Road Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 (edited) 3 hours ago, PompeyVillan said: it's not wildly impossible that with an incredible run of form we could start bothering the top two. I think it's ridiculously improbable. I'd bet everything I own on that not happening. 6th is going to be tough, top 3 out of the question and top 2.....well, that's just not going to happen. Edited December 27, 2016 by One For The Road 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dont_do_it_doug. Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, One For The Road said: I think it's ridiculously improbable. I'd bet everything I own on that not happening. 6th is going to be tough, top 3 out of the question and top 2.....well, that's just not going to happen. Agreed. We'd have to win 10 on the bounce to be in with a chance and with our midfield it's just not happening. 6th though is within range. We've seen our early form under Bruce stagnate over the last 5/6 games and we've had to grind out a few results where we can, yet we've not lost any ground and have actually gained position wise. We need a couple of additions but I've little doubt they will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAMAICAN-VILLAN Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 (edited) 2 hours ago, One For The Road said: Didn't realise Sheffield Wednesday won at Newcastle last night. This is what I've been trying to get across for sometime. It's not just Newcastle and Brighton who are good sides in this division. There is a promotion case to be made for almost every one of the clubs currently above us in the table and I just think we have left it a bit late. It may only be 6 points to catch 6th place and if we were 7th that wouldn't be so bad. The fact is though, even if/when Sheffield Wednesday slip up, we have to win AND hope the teams between us and them also slip up. Then when we slip up we have to hope that the teams above us don't capitalise. I can't see top 6 this season I really can't. We have been on a good run lately and have hardly closed the gap on 6th at all. I've been saying, we pretty much need top 2 form, to be in the top 6 as things stand, bloody RDM!!! Edited December 27, 2016 by JAMAICAN-VILLAN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grasshopper Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I'm counting on a number of variables 1) who we Loan/Buy in the JanWin 2) Who we Loan/Buy from (Good PL players not getting a look in at top 8 clubs) (Getting vital players from Brighton, Leeds, Huddersfield, ShefW, Reading, Fulham & Norwich - if only to weaken them) 3) squad sizes having an effect on tiredness (or not) during the last 10 games 4) AVFC - how much the players really want it . Bruce knows how to promote teams. Are the players good enough? if only a maybe, will they want it enough? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Brighton easily beating QPR 3-0 today, currently on 51 points, 17 points above us. No way are we catching them. Derby - Birmingham playing an important game atm, 0-0 at HT. Not sure what the best result for us would be, (other than City losing of course...) a win would put Derby 5 points clear of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grasshopper Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 17 hours ago, Demitri_C said: If we play like we did today Leeds are going yo thump us love the terminology hate the impliance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
One For The Road Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 16 minutes ago, sne said: Derby - Birmingham playing an important game atm, I think that's stretching the term "important game" to a whole new level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deisler123 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I had a dream last night that at the end of the season neither Brighton nor Newcastle will make automatic promotion. We finished the 2nd. Oh well..... What a nice dream! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastie Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I have a feeling it will be a villa play off final against Derby for us at Wembley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Just need to keep doing what we are doing and wait for one of 4 teams currently in play-off spots to draw a few when they should have been winning and we are in the top 6. Going on what has just happened with Amavi I can see Tony throwing his wallet at it and expect to see some real quality added. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rodders0223 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 21 minutes ago, Jareth said: Just need to keep doing what we are doing and wait for one of 4 teams currently in play-off spots to draw a few when they should have been winning and we are in the top 6. Going on what has just happened with Amavi I can see Tony throwing his wallet at it and expect to see some real quality added. I hope so because as we are seeing by Derby and Sheffield remaining out of sight...it is going to be bloody hard to get up there. This team won't be capable of putting together a run of 5,6,7 wins on the bounce or going to a promotion rival and beating them. We will just about manage to beat the likes of Wigan and Burton at home but those easy games are not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
One For The Road Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 (edited) 53 minutes ago, Jareth said: Just need to keep doing what we are doing and wait for one of 4 teams currently in play-off spots to draw a few when they should have been winning and we are in the top 6. Going on what has just happened with Amavi I can see Tony throwing his wallet at it and expect to see some real quality added. I expect Newcastle, Brighton, Reading, Sheffield Wednesday, Leeds and Derby to finish above us and maybe Huddersfield as well. We are scraping past the dregs of the league and whenever we come up against so called play off rivals like Leeds and Norwich we are losing. I have no idea why some people are so sure we just have to carry on as we are and we will be fine. We won't. We need to DRASTICALLY improve in order to have even the slightest chance of a top 6 finish. FWIW, I think we will improve, but not enough to catch the very strong sides that are already up there and with a decent points advantage on us. You say we just have to carry on as we are and wait for the teams above us to draw a few? What about when we draw? Or lose? Edited December 27, 2016 by One For The Road 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Can't believe Norwich are below us now. They've dropped like a stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodytom Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 (edited) Won't happen. Last night proves imo, what I've been saying for a few weeks. Too many teams to make up too many points. We've been 6/7 points off for a few weeks now. Not making any inroads really. We need too many teams to drop points for us just to be within a game, nevermind get in there, never mind stay in there. I think Thursday is a must win. Lose and it's pretty much over for me. Edited December 27, 2016 by Woodytom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 11 minutes ago, One For The Road said: I expect Newcastle, Brighton, Reading, Sheffield Wednesday, Leeds and Derby to finish above us and maybe Huddersfield as well. We are scraping past the dregs of the league and whenever we come up against so called play off rivals like Leeds and Norwich we are losing. I have no idea why some people are so sure we just have to carry on as we are and we will be fine. We won't. We need to DRASTICALLY improve in order to have even the slightest chance of a top 6 finish. FWIW, I think we will improve, but not enough to catch the very strong sides that are already up there and with a decent points advantage on us. You say we just have to carry on as we are and wait for the teams above us to draw a few? What about when we draw? Or lose? 2 points a game since Bruce started - I expect that to continue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodytom Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 14 minutes ago, Jareth said: 2 points a game since Bruce started - I expect that to continue... We're not going to play the same shite teams Bruce has played. We've played a lot of dross since his arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 (edited) 27 minutes ago, Woodytom said: We're not going to play the same shite teams Bruce has played. We've played a lot of dross since his arrival. What like Brighton, Leeds, Norwich, Reading and Fulham, all who are above us in the table? (well not Norwich any more)... Edited December 27, 2016 by Jareth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I went and had a look at statto.com where you can find Championship tables by week (@TrentVilla who I know was looking for this earlier), to see how likely we are to make it by comparison to history. I looked at the final league table for each season back to 2007/08, and compared to the league table on this date or as close to it as possible, in order to see how many teams from 10th (our current position) or below made it into the playoffs. I expected this to be quite encouraging, and to shoot down the pessimists in this thread, but actually looking at the evidence suggests the pessimists are right: X = no team 10th or below finished in the playoff places 2015/16 - X 2014/15 - X 2013/14 - Wigan (14th) 2012/13 - Brighton (10th) 2011/12 - Blues (15th) 2010/11 - Forest (11th, though they had at least two games in hand on all the teams above them, and in many cases 4 games in hand) 2009/10 - X 2008/09 - X 2007/08 - Hull (11th) I stopped there. Hull finished 3rd that season, and were promoted via the playoffs, so you have to go back 9 years to find the last time a team 10th or lower qualified via the playoffs. In those years, no team from 10th or lower finished in the top 2 (Hull were four points off second). We would have to continue to score two points per game for the rest of the season as a bare minimum, and I think we're very unlikely to keep that pace up. Doing this research has caused me to change my opinion - I don't think it's particularly fair to expect Bruce to get us to the playoffs this season. He'll have done a good job if he can get us close, show he can win games and maintain a good pace, and start better next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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