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The now-enacted will of (some of) the people


blandy

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The significant remain lead that has been talked up over the last page or so appears to be about three or four points, with 25% of the country undecided:

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/

This overconfidence about the result was on display the first time, too. 

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29 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

The significant remain lead that has been talked up over the last page or so appears to be about three or four points, with 25% of the country undecided:

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/

This overconfidence about the result was on display the first time, too. 

That would be true if it were actually wholly based on polls (25% undecided is pretty much an outlier too, usually in the range 10-15%)

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1 hour ago, bickster said:

That would be true if it were actually wholly based on polls (25% undecided is pretty much an outlier too, usually in the range 10-15%)

You're right, I'm being a bit unfair, and 25% is at the high end. We would need more polling to see if that is an outlier or a new equilibrium. However, that is still a lot of undecided voters, and 3 or 4 points is well within the margin of error (in 2015, polls were off by nearly 7 points - British polling is not very good). I really don't see much reason for confidence, and a 52-48 win for remain would cause more problems than it solved. 

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1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said:

You're right, I'm being a bit unfair, and 25% is at the high end. We would need more polling to see if that is an outlier or a new equilibrium. However, that is still a lot of undecided voters, and 3 or 4 points is well within the margin of error (in 2015, polls were off by nearly 7 points - British polling is not very good). I really don't see much reason for confidence, and a 52-48 win for remain would cause more problems than it solved. 

Yes but the problems would be on the side that deserved them :crylaugh:

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8 hours ago, bickster said:

Criticising a plan is OK if you can offer an alternative approach but when your alternate plan is "not the plan", the criticism falls rather flat imo.

What nonsense.

The ceiling's a bit low, would you like to borrow my scythe?

Edited by snowychap
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1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said:

You're right, I'm being a bit unfair, and 25% is at the high end. We would need more polling to see if that is an outlier or a new equilibrium. However, that is still a lot of undecided voters, and 3 or 4 points is well within the margin of error (in 2015, polls were off by nearly 7 points - British polling is not very good). I really don't see much reason for confidence, and a 52-48 win for remain would cause more problems than it solved. 

And none of this has factored in any sort of campaign.

What would the sides be and who would be on them for a start?

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6 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Kind of with snowychap here. I'm no chef, but I can tell when there's a shit in my soup.

Indeed. That kind of criticism is ripe for pooh-poohing unless you've brought your own ready-prepared alternative entrée or are willing to crash the kitchen and whip something up. :)

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7 minutes ago, bickster said:

What starter would you order then that comes without excrement

You're asking the wrong person, because I've said for months that there is no way to stop Brexit, and I view the effort as misplaced. 

In retrospect, there were two opportunities to stop Brexit. One, obviously, was June 2016. The second was June 2017, where a small Labour majority could have usefully exposed the enormous tension between Labour's manifesto commitment and the opinions of their members. Maybe that wouldn't have happened, but it damn sure never was with May. 

Tragically, the nation ignored my sage advice on both occasions, and so we are where we are. This is what the electorate want. The challenge for Remainers now is to keep the UK closely aligned with the EU so that any future readmission is as painless as possible. 

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6 minutes ago, snowychap said:

Indeed. That kind of criticism is ripe for pooh-poohing unless you've brought your own ready-prepared alternative entrée or are willing to crash the kitchen and whip something up. :)

Well, not really, I mean, you could at least suggest an alternative that doesn't have shit in it, couldn't you? Bicks asked what your proposed alternative would be, he didn't insist you run for parliament and enact the sodding thing.

FWIW, I haven't read the rest of the thread, I just don't think the analogy is on point. :P 

 

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3 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Well, the eloquence and insight of your argument sure has convinced me of the fallacy of my position.

You'd have to at least be prepared to read, understand and engage what someone else was posting to be able to take such a supercilious tone and pull it off successfully.

 

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