bickster Posted October 15, 2017 Moderator Share Posted October 15, 2017 No that’s just silly 9 minutes ago, brommy said: By that logic an identical campaign 5 or 10 years earlier would have lead to a bigger leave vote, which I don't believe. Do you believe that people don't change opinion over their lives? Many of those who voted leave were previously in favour of EU membership. Barring a major change in EU membership rules, many of those under 40's would be far more skeptical of the EU in a decade or two. The UK has developed a growing resentment of the EU, despite younger voters replacing dead ones, because many people develop skepticism with age and experience. It’s hasnt developed a growing resentment, the media might have you believe that, it’s not really true. Newspapers ability to influence public opinion is also dying with the older generations But yes I don’t believe people change their mind en mass when they reach a certain age. That quite frankly is a very silly notion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 24 minutes ago, bickster said: Because the demographics of those against the EU are heavily weighted at the soon to be dead end of the spectrum You mean by those soon to be dead people that voted overwhelmingly to join the common market the last time out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brommy Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Just now, bickster said: No that’s just silly It’s hasnt developed a growing resentment, the media might have you believe that, it’s not really true. Newspapers ability to influence public opinion is also dying with the older generations But yes I don’t believe people change their mind en mass when they reach a certain age. That quite frankly is a very silly notion Most of the people I know who voted leave don't read newspapers so their influence is limited. It is a very silly notion that 'people change their mind en mass when they reach a certain age', but I'm unsure what your point is as that's nowhere near what I wrote. No mention of 'en mass' and no mention of a certain age. It's not everyone flipping their opinion on the morning of their 45th birthday, just sizeable numbers whose skepticism increases gradually with age. I don't see that changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colhint Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Are the demographics really changing? They certainly seem to be in Mainland Europe. 20 years ago Farage was who? Le Penn just the same and the Germans were christian and Social democrats. Fast forward and ukip have achieved their goal and disappeared. But in France Le Penn is the Leader of the opposition. Merkel has had her worst result and probably won't form a government before Christmas. The strong pro EU Social democrats had their worst result in ages and won't even be in the coalition. The AFD got over 80 seats. Few of the increases seem to be Pro EU. This situation would have been unthinkable even 10 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 1 hour ago, brommy said: I think a change of mind by the UK government, would see a growing resentment of the EU (and of UK politicians who would be labelled as un-democratic), to the extent that unless the EU changed some of it's principles, there would be a growing demand for a second referendum. The longer it was left, the greater the leave vote. My suspicion: 5+ years = closer to 55%; 10+ years = closer to 60%. I think you're right. The gullibility of people who buy into this prevailing "it's the nasty old EU wanting to punish the UK's love of democracy" nonsense is only going to be nipped in the bud by them seeing what happens if they are cut loose. Which they are (pretty much without exception) completely oblivious of. We'll have to have the disaster at some point - otherwise nobbers like Farage and Johnson will just say that it's because it wasn't done patriotically enough. Any pulling back from the brink and it'll just keep festering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brommy Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 15 minutes ago, ml1dch said: I think you're right. The gullibility of people who buy into this prevailing "it's the nasty old EU wanting to punish the UK's love of democracy" nonsense is only going to be nipped in the bud by them seeing what happens if they are cut loose. Which they are (pretty much without exception) completely oblivious of. We'll have to have the disaster at some point - otherwise nobbers like Farage and Johnson will just say that it's because it wasn't done patriotically enough. Any pulling back from the brink and it'll just keep festering. I think the text in bold is stereotypically naive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 1 hour ago, tonyh29 said: And what happens if remain wins the second time around , do we make it best out of 3 , first one to 10 A second referendum could only really be on this is the deal do we take it or go full Hard Brexit ... anything else isn’t really ever going to resolve things is it ? Yeah it would have to be a vote on the deal. Otherwise you'd have idiots like Hartley-Brewer making the tired old jokes about keep having referendums until remain wins etc. But everyone except a few Tories have said they won't accept no deal whatsoever, so perhaps it's the deal or revoke article 50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 19 minutes ago, darrenm said: Yeah it would have to be a vote on the deal. Otherwise you'd have idiots like Hartley-Brewer making the tired old jokes about keep having referendums until remain wins etc. But everyone except a few Tories have said they won't accept no deal whatsoever, so perhaps it's the deal or revoke article 50? I read today that legally we could revoke and keep the same deals with the EU we currently have ... but i seem to recall Macron ? (Or someone) said we could change our minds and be welcomed back / allowed to stay , but it would be on different terms to those we currently have... so presumably that would lead to more negotiations where the EU try and pull our pants down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brommy Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 16 minutes ago, darrenm said: Yeah it would have to be a vote on the deal. Otherwise you'd have idiots like Hartley-Brewer making the tired old jokes about keep having referendums until remain wins etc. But everyone except a few Tories have said they won't accept no deal whatsoever, so perhaps it's the deal or revoke article 50? Perhaps there should be possibly two more referenda. Firstly a 3 choice option of accept the deal, leave with no deal, remain. Secondly, assuming there was no simple majority from the previous referendum, between the 2 options with the most votes from the previous referendum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 26 minutes ago, brommy said: I think the text in bold is stereotypically naive. I respectfully disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: I read today that legally we could revoke and keep the same deals with the EU we currently have ... We can say we want to knock the whole thing on the head, and everyone else will probably (but not definitely) be happy to go along with that. We can't unilaterally say we are. We need their agreement. The EU papers on the matter were posted a page or so back by (I think) Darren. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 15, 2017 Moderator Share Posted October 15, 2017 8 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: I read today that legally we could revoke and keep the same deals with the EU we currently have ... but i seem to recall Macron ? (Or someone) said we could change our minds and be welcomed back / allowed to stay , but it would be on different terms to those we currently have... so presumably that would lead to more negotiations where the EU try and pull our pants down Macron is wrong. What you read today is correct. As said by Lord Kerr, the bloke what wrote A50. Who do you believe a true British Lord or some cheese eating surrender monkey /panderingtotonysbaseinstincts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 15, 2017 Moderator Share Posted October 15, 2017 1 hour ago, brommy said: Most of the people I know who voted leave don't read newspapers so their influence is limited. It is a very silly notion that 'people change their mind en mass when they reach a certain age', but I'm unsure what your point is as that's nowhere near what I wrote. No mention of 'en mass' and no mention of a certain age. It's not everyone flipping their opinion on the morning of their 45th birthday, just sizeable numbers whose skepticism increases gradually with age. I don't see that changing. Most of the people I know is a very very small unrepresentative sample of the population for the vast majority of people in the U.K. it’s no basis of anything. in my case we’d never have left, remain would have won by such a huge margin, if it were down to the people I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 15, 2017 Moderator Share Posted October 15, 2017 1 hour ago, colhint said: Are the demographics really changing? They certainly seem to be in Mainland Europe. 20 years ago Farage was who? Le Penn just the same and the Germans were christian and Social democrats. Fast forward and ukip have achieved their goal and disappeared. But in France Le Penn is the Leader of the opposition. Merkel has had her worst result and probably won't form a government before Christmas. The strong pro EU Social democrats had their worst result in ages and won't even be in the coalition. The AFD got over 80 seats. Few of the increases seem to be Pro EU. This situation would have been unthinkable even 10 years ago Was Putin in power 20 years ago? All of those you mention (apart from Merkell) as shills of Putin. He’s paying them all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 6 minutes ago, bickster said: Macron is wrong. What you read today is correct. As said by Lord Kerr, the bloke what wrote A50. Who do you believe a true British Lord or some cheese eating surrender monkey /panderingtotonysbaseinstincts The EU Council disagree though. And they will be the ones making the decision if we go back with our tail between our legs, not Lord Kerr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 15, 2017 Moderator Share Posted October 15, 2017 9 minutes ago, ml1dch said: The EU Council disagree though. And they will be the ones making the decision if we go back with our tail between our legs, not Lord Kerr. I’m treating that as posturing right now tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 (edited) 19 minutes ago, ml1dch said: The EU Council disagree though. And they will be the ones making the decision if we go back with our tail between our legs, not Lord Kerr. I'd imagine the satisfaction of seeing us having to go back with our tail between our legs will be enough to see them welcome us back with open arms. Edited October 15, 2017 by markavfc40 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, bickster said: I’m treating that as posturing right now tbh Posturing or not, they've still given themselves that option if they want to take it. As I've said, it we changed our mind it's in their interest to go along with it (in the short term at least), so I wouldn't think it would be a problem. But the further we keep eroding the small amount of remaining goodwill, the more likely it becomes that they decide to join us in deciding what to do emotionally rather than rationally. I can't see any scenario where this current Government wants to make a U-turn on this anyway, so unless that changes it's probably academic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colhint Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 (edited) 32 minutes ago, bickster said: Was Putin in power 20 years ago? All of those you mention (apart from Merkell) as shills of Putin. He’s paying them all whilst there may be an element of that, I doubt even he could sway the minds of so many Europeans, None of his predecessors could. And as you say I think Merkel isn't on the payrol. But she still saw a big shift away from the EU. Could it possibly be the big decisions made by the EU are not necessarily be for the benefit of it's citizens. Occam's razor and the like Edited October 15, 2017 by colhint typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted October 15, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted October 15, 2017 I think reducing the apparent shift in political will to the right in Europe to be about the EU is silly. It's not about that. Some elements have tried to frame it like that, but it isn't. The West has been rattled for a decade, petite have gone with populism or turned rightwards as fear always does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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