The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[Awol]

5 hours ago, blandy said:

How do you see that affecting the Article 50 negotiations?

On the Americans and a trade deal. I heard the Donald say bigly "America first" repeatedly. I think that means he wants to make sur that it's the US that benefits from deals. He just signed an order to pull them out of existing deals.

I suspect that  politically it will suit Trump and May do "do a deal" in short order. I also suspect that there are two posible ways it could go - a deal of little actual substance, but which symolically helps both, or a deal that rodgers the UK, because May, Fox et all are going to be so desperate for anything in a few months.

What we won't see is a deal with the US which is significantly beneficial to the UK and our exports.

It's too early to say now how the EU will approach the negotiations as they progress. Much will depend on the election cycle this year in the Netherlands, France & Germany, which takes takes us up to October/November (I think?).

A shock result in France or Germany will turn the EU on its head and its negotiating position along with it. I think even the pro-EU camp can admit the situation is fluid on the Continent, about as charitable description as I can manage. We'll see. 

As for a US-UK FTA we disagree on the probable outcome and I provided the reasoning for a more positive view in a post a page or two back. 

[StefanAVFC]

Because of the political system, a leader of state win for any of the populists in France, Netherlands or Germany is incredibly unlikely. Out of the 3, I'd say France is most likely and Germany is almost a zero chance.

[Awol]

1 minute ago, StefanAVFC said:

Because of the political system, a leader of state win for any of the populists in France, Netherlands or Germany is incredibly unlikely. Out of the 3, I'd say France is most likely and Germany is almost a zero chance.

I reckon Wilders will win the popular vote in Holland, if he is then unable to govern due to the coalition building process that will pour fuel on the populist fire that he will exploit to the full.

Le Pen won't get in because the blocking coalition of voters is too strong - unless they get another Bataclan type horror show before the election. 

In Germany AfD don't have to win, Merkel just has to lose - and I think she will. 

Put it all together and what was unthinkable two years ago in political terms is now very much possible. That is going to have an effect. 

 

[StefanAVFC]

Just now, Awol said:

In Germany AfD don't have to win, Merkel just has to lose - and I think she will. 

Really? Her biggest threat is from the left of her IMO.

Also, side note, you're able to be both disgusted by Trump's behaviour and the democrat's behaviour.

[snowychap]

44 minutes ago, Awol said:

A shock result in France or Germany will turn the EU on its head and its negotiating position along with it.

Not, perhaps, if the shock is Macron in France.

Edited January 24, 2017 by snowychap

[Awol]

5 minutes ago, snowychap said:

Not if the shock is Macron in France.

That would be astonishing.

[snowychap]

9 minutes ago, Awol said:

That would be astonishing.

14/1 in to 100/30 since I put my money down in early December.

 

Edit: Only a token pound.

Edited January 24, 2017 by snowychap

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

53 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Because of the political system, a leader of state win for any of the populists in France, Netherlands or Germany is incredibly unlikely. Out of the 3, I'd say France is most likely and Germany is almost a zero chance.

I hope you are correct my friend I really do.  Wilder's is ahead in the Polls currently,  early days.

What the Dutch don't know or understand is that Wilders comes across as a cross between John Inman and Karl Dilkington.  He is always perfectly turned out but talks utter shite all the time and won't stop.  He said people like me (English) might have to leave so we will see.

 

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

49 minutes ago, Awol said:

I reckon Wilders will win the popular vote in Holland, if he is then unable to govern due to the coalition building process that will pour fuel on the populist fire that he will exploit to the full.

Good point, that could very well happen and he could destroy it from the inside and veto everything.

[blandy]

1 hour ago, snowychap said:

Not, perhaps, if the shock is Macron in France.

The little man off the football kits, I don't think he was that popular. 

1 hour ago, snowychap said:

Only a token pound.

Well, that's what they're worth now.

[snowychap]

1 hour ago, Awol said:

That would be astonishing.

To be a little more serious than the betting remark, though, he's only 4 points behind Fillon in one of the recent polls, I think, with Le Pen leading. If Valls loses the Socialist party slot to Hamon then perhaps more might come out in support of Macron from the centrist end of the Socialists.

I'm not advocating Macron, btw, but I think we are concentrating so much over here on Le Pen as the next in the populist, 'anti-establishment', outsider roll of candidates that we are ignoring him. It seems that he is very much trying to ride that wave and having a fair bit of success thus far (at least in terms of polling and turnout at rallies).

[HanoiVillan]

2 hours ago, Awol said:

I reckon Wilders will win the popular vote in Holland, if he is then unable to govern due to the coalition building process that will pour fuel on the populist fire that he will exploit to the full.

Meh. This argument has to be subject to diminishing returns. 

I'm not an expert on Dutch politics, I admit, nor have I followed every in and out of Geert Wilders' political career, but my overarching impression was that he's pretty frigging rightwing, no? Yet at the same time he's doing very well in the polls. Putting those two points together suggests to me that there's probably a hard ceiling on his support, and that he can't be far from bumping into it. 

The reaction of most people who think he's a neo-fascist Hitler wannabe* is not going to be 'oh, how awful of those beastly centrists not to let the neo-fascist form a government', it's going to be 'thank **** for that'. I mean I'm sure there will be some people with the first reaction, but it seems likely to be fairly limited in number to me. 

*EDIT: As I say, I'm no expert on Dutch politics. My impression from afar is that - to make a crude and no doubt fairly useless British analogy - he occupies the political space somewhere between a eurosceptic, 'alt-right' figure like a Farage, and a steel-toe-capped fascist like a Nick Griffin. Obviously if I'm wrong about this, and he's more like a cuddly Boris-esque everyman, then his ceiling will be significantly higher. 

Edited January 24, 2017 by HanoiVillan

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

12 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

Putting those two points together suggests to me that there's probably a hard ceiling on his support, and that he can't be far from bumping into it. 

The Dutch are the tallest people in the world,  we could have a problem.

[Chindie]

Remember how the pound rallied (...snigger) after May's speech last week, when it dipped just before?

That dip before... Private Eye has reported that it may well have had something to do with copies of main points of the speech doing the rounds of City analysts in the days before, preemptively tanking the pound.

[Xann]

Quote

Theresa May refused to guarantee she will not water down food standards or open up the NHS to US firms in a trade deal with Donald Trump. The Prime Minister faced repeated questions about how much she is prepared to give away, ahead of her face-to-face talks with the President later this week.

Jeremy Corbyn urged her to rule out any deal that would give US healthcare giants a toehold in the NHS – after similar concerns over an aborted EU-US agreement. And the SNP raised fears that such a deal will open the door to British supermarkets being stocked with meat produced in unhygienic ways currently outlawed across the EU.

The price of freer transatlantic trade will include the sale of chickens washed with chemicals – a practice in the US – critics say.

In further evidence of growing worries at Westminster over a headlong rush to get close to Mr Trump, a Tory MP demanded a guarantee the UK will not “facilitate torture”.

And Ed Miliband, the former Labour leader, urged her to take along British scientists who could convince the President that climate change is “not a hoax invented by the Chinese”.

In reply, Ms May said her government was “very clear we don’t sanction torture” – and made clear she hoped Mr Trump will not walk away from the Paris agreement to cut carbon emissions. However, she declined to discuss details of her hopes for trade from her trip to Washington, instead saying they were to “increase prosperity and bring growth”.

Mr Corbyn warned of “a blank cheque to President Trump”, telling MPs: “Many have concerns that, in your forthcoming meeting with President Trump, you will be prepared to offer up, for sacrifice, the opportunity of American companies to come in and take over parts of our NHS or our public services.

“Will you assure the House that, in any trade deal, none of those things will be offered up as a bargaining chip?”

Angus Robertson, the SNP leader at Westminster, said: “They want to export genetically modified organisms, beef raised with growth hormones and chicken meat washed with chlorinated water.

“Will the Prime Minister tell President Trump that she is not prepared to lower our food and safety standards?”

But Ms May, in reply to the Labour leader, said her early meeting was evidence of the bond between the two countries, “a special relationship on which he and I intend to build”. And, she told Mr Robertson: “It is very simple – we want to achieve an arrangement that ensures the interests of the United Kingdom are there and are put first.”She did add: “I can ensure the right honourable gentleman that, in doing that, we will put UK interests and UK values first.”

Nick Clegg said Joe Biden, the former US Vice President, told him the US would not agree to “anything that the chicken farmers of Delaware don’t like”. Those farmers use chemical washes – to make up for inadequate hygiene at farms and abattoirs, food experts protest. In contrast, the EU uses a so-called “farm to fork” approach, requiring steps all along the production chain to ensure the food sold is safe.

 

Independent

 

[tonyh29]

22 minutes ago, Xann said:

And the SNP raised fears that such a deal will open the door to British supermarkets being stocked with meat produced in unhygienic ways currently outlawed across the EU.

yeah... far better that we stock our supermarkets with horse meat

 

Edited January 26, 2017 by tonyh29

[Xann]

Yeah - cos that was like legal and above board.

Oh, hang on, it wasn't!

It was illegal and fraudulent.

The supply chain was quite rightly investigated.

 

When are you going back to work?

[Chindie]

There's a difference between a mistake/oversight in regulation/fraud and actively not regulating against something isn't there? 

Ahh but. 

[Awol]

So a collection of MPs conjure up their worst fears about what a US-UK FTA could include, that is then packaged up and presented as news.

The PM & new President haven't even met yet and we're all flapping about having to feed our kids chlorinated chicken meat. 

Good to see the Independent maintaining the journalistic standards that saw its print format cease to exist. 

[tonyh29]

1 hour ago, Chindie said:

There's a difference between a mistake/oversight in regulation/fraud and actively not regulating against something isn't there? 

Ahh but. 

fail

the OP was a daily Mail type harp back to the good old days when everything was regulated  and wont' someone think of the children when we open the doors to unhygienic ways

The horse meat scandal  was a major breakdown in the traceability of the food supply chain , and a major failure of the EU regulations ( HACCP ?)

but then you already knew that didn't you

 

 

Quote

The price of freer transatlantic trade will include the sale of chickens washed with chemicals – a practice in the US – critics say

by the way hadn't the EU , yes that one , already agreed to the import of chlorinated chicken as part of TTIP (in principle at least )   .. can't imagine how the SNP and the critics missed that 

 

so I see your Ah but and raise you a Hypocrisy

 

Edited January 26, 2017 by tonyh29