Nate has been caught out quite badly a few times already. Not especially his fault as he is only as good as his data, but there is something up here, as the polls have been way off on at least 2 prominent occasions, e.g., Sanders in Michigan and Indiana... and that's completely ignoring the polling which has been predicting Trump to fall apart from way back. Seems to me that there is an unaccounted for selection bias in the standard polling techniques, that is being revealed this cycle.