They could have been going to die from cancer, pneumonia, old age, or sudden trauma.... and then caught Covid whilst they were in hospital/care home dying anyway.
They did originally undercount the care home deaths, but once they realised, they caught up to the correct number by adding them back into the official numbers.
Yes, agree with your excess deaths point.
Im not saying they are definitely under-counted, just wondering why they can’t be more scientific and tally the count from death certificates.