Nigel Posted September 10, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted September 10, 2013 Don't bet Not exactly a win though is it, more like a draw! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigel Posted September 10, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted September 10, 2013 Could you please add a question mark to the title. I have some serious ass kissing to do with the boss now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I've known people who swear they know fellas who live by gambling and a good whack at that, can anyone give me top tips on 'how to beat the bookmaker' At least 1/3 of my annual income comes from gambling. It takes years of experience and hard work to get good at betting successfully. But the online bookmakers just shut you down when you start to regularly take money from them. This creates the problem of getting bets on. Which requires help from others. Also trips to multiple betting shops etc.. I can't go into detail on exactly how you become successful. The people I know who make a living off it have found their particular niche. But key things are discipline, being analytical, keeping records and reviewing your bets to see where you've gone wrong and how to improve. I bet solely on 3 sports. Jumps Racing, Tennis and Golf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eames Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I've known people who swear they know fellas who live by gambling and a good whack at that, can anyone give me top tips on 'how to beat the bookmaker' At least 1/3 of my annual income comes from gambling. It takes years of experience and hard work to get good at betting successfully. But the online bookmakers just shut you down when you start to regularly take money from them. This creates the problem of getting bets on. Which requires help from others. Also trips to multiple betting shops etc.. I can't go into detail on exactly how you become successful. The people I know who make a living off it have found their particular niche. But key things are discipline, being analytical, keeping records and reviewing your bets to see where you've gone wrong and how to improve. I bet solely on 3 sports. Jumps Racing, Tennis and Golf. Tell everybody you know about the times you win. Keep the times you lose to yourself. You won't actually beat the bookmaker, but at least gullible people will think you have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 The way to avoid that Eames is that you post your bets before the event. If someone says of I had that winner there etc. They get ridiculed for Aftertiming. It's when someone says they had something after it happened. It's a requirement needed for the cesspool forums if Betfair. But I and about 15 other lads have a private betting forum. You post your bets for that day in the relevant thread and use a points system as people have varying sized betting pools. 1pt is min bet 10 is max. You post odds and bookie. So Hurricane Fly 5pts win 13/8 Paddy Power. This method let's a community work and people learn who is good and what sports people are best at etc.. The only talk about your wins doesn't work on betting forums as you just get ridiculed for being an aftertiming dick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigel Posted September 10, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted September 10, 2013 I bet solely on 3 sports. Jumps Racing, Tennis and Golf. You make money out of tennis? Surely you cant bet on individual match's, the odds are ridiculous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Tennis is one of the worst sports to bet on, The only sport I have actually come out on top on is cricket. I tried backing the certainties in football but it takes ages to build up any cash and then you always get the odd upset which puts you back to square one. I don't know what odds Murray is for sports personality of the year but that's an absolute certainty. It doesn't matter what Mo Farrah has done or any tour de france win. He's certain to win it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villaguy Posted September 10, 2013 Author Share Posted September 10, 2013 I follow football and tennis fairly closely in terms of statistical trends, I've never really placed many bets but thought that having so much interest and a bit of understanding then maybe I could have some success. I did read a while back now that a failed/unemployed stockbroker in the city used his ability with statistics to become a hugely successful gambler, something like +£20million in a few years. In the article he was explaining some of his indicators and methods that he used, but it was all on the horses, something I know very little about. I was thinking whether there is any success stories and tips on football for me to at least start with, I know tennis is fairly unpredictable especially now the top 4 is no longer a four as Federer ages and the rest are getting better and increasingly likely to shock anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thetrees Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Serious answer time. My uncle has always loved the horses, but at the tender age of 70-something he changed his way of gambling. He bets to win EUR50 per bet. So if his fancied horse is 5-1, he sticks EUR10 on , 10-1 EUR5 and so on. He studies form fastidiously, and sometimes does not put a bet on for several days. He is very quiet about what he wins, but I know that he has been at least EUR2000 up on each of the last three flat racing seasons (he doesn't bet over the jumps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I bet solely on 3 sports. Jumps Racing, Tennis and Golf. You make money out of tennis? Surely you cant bet on individual match's, the odds are ridiculous! I bet in tournament winners. Only the big 4 ever win slams or masters titles. Take Rafa Nadal for the US Open. He was 2/1 and if you bet each way you'd get half the odds if he made the final. When you look at the draw he was on a side with nobody remotely dangerous to him. So I could bet heavily each way and only lose money if he got beat in the semis or earlier. I also do a bit of trading. Which is harder to explain. But there are YouTube videos about the basics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Serious answer time. My uncle has always loved the horses, but at the tender age of 70-something he changed his way of gambling. He bets to win EUR50 per bet. So if his fancied horse is 5-1, he sticks EUR10 on , 10-1 EUR5 and so on. He studies form fastidiously, and sometimes does not put a bet on for several days. He is very quiet about what he wins, but I know that he has been at least EUR2000 up on each of the last three flat racing seasons (he doesn't bet over the jumps). If you have the skills and love the sport then there is plenty of money to be made in horse racing. When you said your uncle sometimes wouldn't bet for days. What you're pointing to is one of the key skills required in betting. Knowing when a price is wrong. If you think this horse X will likely win but his price is too short then you have to let him go unbacked. You also need to accept some of the unbacked horses will win and not let that get to you and throw you off. It's easier said than done and took me years to calm the emotions when you have been unlucky or let a horse go unbacked etc.. But as for method. I watch and read and immerse myself in the Jumps from October to April every year. I look at the card and whittle it down to a shortlist of potential winners. Then I look at the odds after I've formed my opinion on the runners. Then horses who are too big or too short will decide who if any I bet on. But also having a private group of experts helps immensely. I can throw up my opinions and have others give theirs. It's teamwork and they will remember bits of info you may have forgotten. Nothing beats a forum charge when we all agree and pile on the same horse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted September 11, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted September 11, 2013 Kelly criterion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 I know a few people who apply the Kelly criterion. But the drawbacks are many. Firstly it's time consuming to apply to racing and it's really only useful when a betting strategy is employed. Betting strategies are very volatile in Jumps umps Racing due to the obstacles to be jumped and the massive variations in ground conditions. I do work from a betting pool though and work off a set % of the pool as equivalent to 1 point, or the minimum bet I would place. The number of points wagered on a horse is subjective and based many factors including the perceived value in the odds. A good thing to know is if you divide 1 by the decimal odds you will get the implied win %. For example an even money shot is 2.0 in decimal odds. 1/2 = 0.5 or 50% chance of winning. Seeing these %'s can help the mind decide if those over or understate a horses chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 we went to Windsor racing once and I saw a mate of mine go to about 4 different bookies and place a bet we all watched the race saying who we'd backed but he said nothing ..and then when the race was over produced the winning ticket from his pocket I swear he backed every horse in the race just to be able to do this .... why !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted September 11, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted September 11, 2013 I know a few people who apply the Kelly criterion. But the drawbacks are many.With Kelly, it is true that the "assess probability more accurately than the market" aspect is left as an exercise for the reader.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brumerican Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 For the acca bet guys out there , you should definitely be perming your bets . The amount of times I hear someone say "so and so let me down for whatever " makes me laugh . Every single weekend there are countless "surprise" results yet people still act surprised ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NurembergVillan Posted September 11, 2013 Moderator Share Posted September 11, 2013 perming your bets I don't even know what this means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hycus-flange Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 perming your bets I don't even know what this means. isnt it an 80's thing where your bets end up all curly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 we went to Windsor racing once and I saw a mate of mine go to about 4 different bookies and place a bet we all watched the race saying who we'd backed but he said nothing ..and then when the race was over produced the winning ticket from his pocket I swear he backed every horse in the race just to be able to do this .... why !!! What a complete loser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyVillan Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 I'm up on the bookies, but not by much, a few hundred pounds I think. I bet very small, like maximum £10 bet on football. I tend to back the favourites of games based on what I think is a good price. I don't know enough to predict form, but occasionally I do. For example I bet on Villa to beat Arsenal because the odds were delicious. I do the odd accumulator. But I only bet on football. I'm up £50 this football season so far. Sometimes I go weeks without betting if the odds are not great. I'm not expert, but I'm not impulsive or compulsive and I don't chase loses. I go on losing streaks too, but I keep them quiet and only talk of my wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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