how to beat the bookmaker

[CVByrne]

This is what I wrote on my racing forum on Friday evening

 

 3.20 Ascot - Houblon Des Obeaux – Was on 149 last season and got dropped 5lbs for loss when ott at Cheltenham in April, it was his 8th start as a novice staying chaser. 

Ran creditable to be 11l behind Lord Windermere in RSA despite 2 bad mistakes (on his 7th start). But really showed his like for Ascot when 1.5l 2nd to Hennessy Favourite Rocky Creek in the Reynoldstown. That was a great performance in a Grade 1 no less. 

So now he runs back at Ascot over c&d his first time in h/c company off 144 and is nearly the rank outsider !!!!! No way. Won his first 2 starts last season so goes well fresh and is exceptionally consistent tough horse. Could improve for the summer as he’s only a 6 year old. Still have a hard on looking at those odds. Williams not in the best of form is the only worry. 

Bitten a chunk of the 16/1 e/w thank you sir.

 

 

 

Here was the result

 

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/02-11-2013/ascot/result/591000/united-house-gold-cup-handicap-chase-grade-3

 

1st   8 Houblon Des Obeaux (FR) Miss V Williams 6 11-3 Aidan Coleman 12/1 Chased leaders went 2nd 10th, mistake next, led 16th, clear before 2 out, well in command when mistake last, driven out opened 14/1

 

I Went to Ascot on my own 

Edited November 5, 2013 by CVByrne

[CVByrne]

Aye Snowy, I'll post a few bits on my Cheltenham fancies if you are interested in an antepost bet or two. I've already backed one for the Paddy Power h/c at Cheltenham saturday week and I've also backed one for the Hennessy at Newbury.

 

Let me find my pieces on both and I'll post in here. 

[claret75]

Lots of hard study and practice before even putting a bet on and strong discipline. 

 

I was off work for a few months so looked into the horses. I made most of my money on long shots that had been favourably handicapped after running previous 1,2,3 races whatever over an unfavourable trip. After looking further back into the form i could see they'd maybe run well at the upcoming distance with the same sort of same ground etc, so the previous races at a different distance were a bit of a red herring. There are a lot of variables which also need to be taken into consideration but I would've done quite well with this strategy if I'd have had the discipline.

[snowychap]

Aye Snowy, I'll post a few bits on my Cheltenham fancies if you are interested in an antepost bet or two. I've already backed one for the Paddy Power h/c at Cheltenham saturday week and I've also backed one for the Hennessy at Newbury.

 

Let me find my pieces on both and I'll post in here. 

 

Cheers. Not so much anything antepost in particular but anything that might stand out for a particular reason that could then justify following it at the festival.

I like the run down, above, about Houblon including the comment about Venetia's form (which may well have accounted for a few points of the price) - didn't she and Coleman end up with a treble on the day, too?

Edited November 5, 2013 by snowychap

[CVByrne]

Yeah Venetia won with Drumshamboo who was on my shortlist but didn't back because I felt I wasn't sure he was best fresh, also was pretty high in the handicap & Venetia form. But did back Zamdy man, her 3rd winner as clearly having won the two feature races on the card she was then in form. 

 

As for ones to watch..

 

Well Henderson and Geraghty think this West Wizard is a seriously talented horse, has bundles of speed and he'll be aimed at the Supreme. I've backed him a few times for the race already @ 14/1 and 12/1

 

Also Champagne Fever will be going Novice Chasing and he'll be better over Fences than he was over hurdles, really smashing horse and supposed to jump very well. Already won at the last 2 Cheltenham festivals. 

 

There's another Mullins horse I love called Faugheen, he'll probably end up in the Neptune at Cheltenham, and contest 2 & 1/2 mile novice hurdles in Ireland. Never seen a horse win a bumper so well as he did earlier this year.

[CVByrne]

For those interested in placing an antepost bet for the Paddy Power on the 16th October. Marito is an absolute stand out bet at the weights. Weights released today.

 

I and many others have gone in again each way @ 16/1

 

I'll post my reasoning in a bit.

 

Basically horse has been given a mark of 147 and had he not fallen when 3rd at Cheltenham festival he'd be in the top 3 in the Jewson, the top 4 from that race now rated 157, 158, 159 & 159

[mockingbird_franklin]

Bet on evens results.

 

If you win, bet the same amount. If you lose, double it.

sounds great until you realise most odds aren't just a plain statistical likelihood of them happening,

[mockingbird_franklin]

I've known people who swear they know fellas who live by gambling and a good whack at that, can anyone give me top tips on 'how to beat the bookmaker'

Oh I had a distant relative that was a bookmaker, grandfathers cousin or something like that, his view on punters and bookmakers was "I've seen plenty of skint punters and never a skint bookmaker" you can win the odd battle but they tend to win the war, not saying it can't be done, but it's not a casual pass time, it takes knowledge study and hard work, and even then you're always fighting a fight rigged against the punter, so to do well you have to spot opportunities where that rigged system can be exploited.

[CVByrne]

 

I've known people who swear they know fellas who live by gambling and a good whack at that, can anyone give me top tips on 'how to beat the bookmaker'

Oh I had a distant relative that was a bookmaker, grandfathers cousin or something like that, his view on punters and bookmakers was "I've seen plenty of skint punters and never a skint bookmaker" you can win the odd battle but they tend to win the war, not saying it can't be done, but it's not a casual pass time, it takes knowledge study and hard work, and even then you're always fighting a fight rigged against the punter, so to do well you have to spot opportunities where that rigged system can be exploited.

 

 

 

To be successful you have to play to the advantage the punter has over the bookmaker.

 

The bookmaker has to fight every fight, they gives odds on every race, sport event etc and most take proper bets (Skybet, ladbrokes, corals, etc.. do not)

 

The punter can pick his fights, so when he's see the opportunity a horse priced up way too big etc.. he can take advantage of that. As you say, spot the opportunity.

 

But it takes discipline and vast amounts of work and years of experience. There is no quick win system or anything stupid like that.

Edited November 6, 2013 by CVByrne

[Nigel]

For those interested in placing an antepost bet for the Paddy Power on the 16th October. Marito is an absolute stand out bet at the weights. Weights released today.

 

I and many others have gone in again each way @ 16/1

 

I'll post my reasoning in a bit.

 

Basically horse has been given a mark of 147 and had he not fallen when 3rd at Cheltenham festival he'd be in the top 3 in the Jewson, the top 4 from that race now rated 157, 158, 159 & 159

Im in

[omariqy]

I have 3 mates who are full time gamblers.  One bets only on cricket - apparently its a great sport to bet on because of all the various markets.  The other plays poker online full time and the third is a mix of the two.  I know two of them make 6 figures a year on a consistent basis.

[lapal_fan]

All's you have to do is, name the bet you're going to put on, put it on first so you receive the best odds and then let us simpletons pick up the bet, if we want  

[Nigel]

All's you have to do is, name the bet you're going to put on, put it on first so you receive the best odds and then let us simpletons pick up the bet, if we want

er...hes done it (5 posts above)!

[CVByrne]

I have 3 mates who are full time gamblers.  One bets only on cricket - apparently its a great sport to bet on because of all the various markets.  The other plays poker online full time and the third is a mix of the two.  I know two of them make 6 figures a year on a consistent basis.

 

 

Don't bet on Cricket, but mate I used to work with was over last weekend. He told me about a lad we used to work with, bets on cricket. He'd be on like €40k a year so not rich or anything.

 

Said on a night out he showed him his betfair account balance, €92,000 !!!!! All on cricket betting, he'd be getting 4 or 5 weather forecasts and using that knowledge to bet on draws or something.

[leviramsey]

Don't bet on Cricket, but mate I used to work with was over last weekend. He told me about a lad we used to work with, bets on cricket. He'd be on like €40k a year so not rich or anything.

 

Said on a night out he showed him his betfair account balance, €92,000 !!!!! All on cricket betting, he'd be getting 4 or 5 weather forecasts and using that knowledge to bet on draws or something.

Baseball is similar, especially with regard to weather forecasts for wind and totals at certain stadiums (Wrigley in Chicago most notably). With a menu of about 15 games a day for 6 months, it's the mainstay of the American pros (also helped by the bigger syndicates' tendency to sit out baseball and by post-up account bookies going into heavy discount mode to get people to keep balances over the summer).

[Matt1874]

I won about £400 on an accumulator a few years ago where all but one of the matches had either finished or already kicked off. I went in on a Saturday at around 2 on an FA Cup weekend where there were a few early kicks offs. So I put them on the quickslip and also a couple from the Friday. I thought i'd best put one 3 oclock in as well so I put Celtic at home against Inverness or someone like that. Put a £10 on the accumulator.

I went in at 5ish (after Celtic scraped a 1-0 win) feeling more than a little sheepish, expecting to be rumbled. Anyway, the woman behind the counter noticed the Friday games straight away. But not the early Saturday games. She recalculated my return from a few grand to a few hundred quid, gave me the money and I made a speedy exit!

A mate tried the same tactic the following round of fixtures but the bloke behind the till rumbled him when he went to collect. I haven't tried it since. Can't grumble at free money though!

[Davkaus]

So your story is that you're a thief?

[Matt1874]

I guess that's one way of looking at it!

[lapal_fan]

 

All's you have to do is, name the bet you're going to put on, put it on first so you receive the best odds and then let us simpletons pick up the bet, if we want

er...hes done it (5 posts above)!

 

No, no, he's speaking a foreign language, is what he's doin' 

 

 

[CVByrne]

Basically in a handicap in racing, say 40 horses are entered for the race. Each horse has a rating, it's a number. This number is assigned by a centralised team who assess a horses level of talent based on his performances on a race track.

 

A horse must run 3 times before it is given a rating, this allows the assesers judge how good he is. Ratings are nearly always assigned based on 1 = 1 horse length of distance at finish. So say an established horse is rated 150 and new horse runs 6l behind him, he'll be given a rating of 144, basically 150 - 6, as we know the established horse is reliably 150 and new horse must be given a rating based on his proximity to that horse.

 

So when it comes to the handicap race, 40 horses entered. The highest rated horse carries top weight, whish is 11 stone 12 lbs. Then the next rated horse carries 1lb less for every 1 he is lower in the ratings. So say top weight is rated 150, a horse on 140 would carry 11 stone 2lbs.

 

Now we come to one of the angles, a horse can only be given a higher rating for finishing a race. The horse I mentioned Marito was right there in the from 4 in the race at Cheltenham Festival called the Jewson, he fell at the 2nd last. So he never finished and his rating remains what it was.

 

But we saw his potential in that race, he would have been in the first 3 in my opinion. Possibly 2nd. But all the horses who finished in the first 4 are now rated 157, 158 or 159. Yet Marito is on 147 despite at least being the equal of that group based on that race had he not unfortunatley fell.

 

So in this handicap race, the Paddy Power at cheltenham on 16th October. He will carry 10-12lbs less weight than he should do based on his ability. This is called "well in at the weights". 1lb roughly translates as 1 length, so essentially he'll have about a 10-12 length bonus against his rivals here at the finish.  

 

16/1 odds prices him at a 5.8% chance of winning and a 20% chance of placing (making the first 4 places). I'd say he's 90% certain to run, so factoring that in we get implied odds of 14.5/1 or 6.4% chance of winning. I'd place his chances in the 15 - 20% region of winning which places his real odds in my opinion between 4/1 to 11/2.

 

As such 16/1 proves excellent value in this case.