how to beat the bookmaker

[CVByrne]

Villa to beat Arsenal was 8/1, fair few of us had that. But gave some of it back as was sure we'd beat Liverpool the following weekend. They're the only 2 footie bets I've done this season. Not a big earner is football por moi.

[StefanAVFC]

Bet on evens results.

 

If you win, bet the same amount. If you lose, double it.

[KHV]

perming your bets

 

I don't even know what this means.

An example of this type of bet would be to pick 4 games and pick the correct score. Bet on the 4 wins and also bet on the correct score in each game however pick a couple of scores. So for example pick 2-1 and 2-0 on every game.

That way not only have u backed 4 wins but you have multiple permiations for the scores. You will have made 12 bets in total for the 4 games.

If the 4 wins come in only u can get some of your total stake back or all of it , if you get 4 wins with all correct scores your laughing. Its a great way to bet

[CVByrne]

Bet on evens results.

 

If you win, bet the same amount. If you lose, double it.

A terrible idea and bound to fail unless you know what you're betting on is better than a 50:50 shot on average.

Edited September 11, 2013 by CVByrne

[KHV]

Bet on evens results.

 

If you win, bet the same amount. If you lose, double it.

A terrible idea and bound to fail unless you know what you're betting on is better than a 50:50 shot on average.

you may as well play red or black on roulette.

I tried that once pissed, cost me £600!

[tonyh29]

I believe its roulette where the way to win( in theory at least ) is to double you stake each bet you lose and thus when it finally comes in you are in profit ? Edit : and if I had read the last page of the thread before posting I'd have seen others already mentioning this

Edited September 11, 2013 by tonyh29

[Mantis]

Not a massive gambler by any stretch but I had a shit hot streak back last season when we kept on throwing leads at the end of games. Literally won hundreds just by chucking money against us when we were leading.

Edited September 11, 2013 by Mantis

[StefanAVFC]

I believe its roulette where the way to win( in theory at least ) is to double you stake each bet you lose and thus when it finally comes in you are in profit ? Edit : and if I had read the last page of the thread before posting I'd have seen others already mentioning this

 

Yeah this. It works.

[snowychap]

I believe its roulette where the way to win( in theory at least ) is to double you stake each bet you lose and thus when it finally comes in you are in profit ? Edit : and if I had read the last page of the thread before posting I'd have seen others already mentioning this

In practice, a run of 26 consecutive black numbers (or however many consecutive heads it was in Rosencrantz and Guildenstern) would see you up the swanny, though.

[tonyh29]

I believe its roulette where the way to win( in theory at least ) is to double you stake each bet you lose and thus when it finally comes in you are in profit ? Edit : and if I had read the last page of the thread before posting I'd have seen others already mentioning this

In practice, a run of 26 consecutive black numbers (or however many consecutive heads it was in Rosencrantz and Guildenstern) would see you up the swanny, though.

With a £10 initial stake double on each bet I make it that your 25th bet would be

£335,544,320

Worse case , You'd like to think that 26th bet comes in for you

[leviramsey]

Tony and Stefan check into hotels under the name Martin Gale.

That strategy only works if you have an infinite bankroll to start with. Otherwise, in the long run, you are guaranteed to wipe yourself out (unless, as Conor notes, the chance of winning is better than 50/50... and even then, if you're betting more than Kelly, you're virtually certain to wipeout at some point).

[snowychap]

Worse case , You'd like to think that 26th bet comes in for you

That's exactly the point. The chances of it happening (assuming a fair game) are precisely the same as they were for each of the previous 25 spins of the wheel.

Otherwise see Levi's post above.

[Spoony]

Wait for Man Utd to go a goal down (like they always do) and then bet on them winning (like they always do).

 

I am not much of a betting man but I did this at the start of last season, won and then did it for the rest of the season every time they went down. You'll win a small fortune because if you bet IMMEDIATELY when they go a goal down then you get really good odds for them winning.

[colhint]

I look at gambling from another point of view.Most people would think if you had a £10 stake and expected to win £50 that would be unlikely. But if you had £1000 stake and hoped to win £50 that would seem more realistic

[Mantis]

Wait for Man Utd to go a goal down (like they always do) and then bet on them winning (like they always do).

 

I am not much of a betting man but I did this at the start of last season, won and then did it for the rest of the season every time they went down. You'll win a small fortune because if you bet IMMEDIATELY when they go a goal down then you get really good odds for them winning.

 

Yeah, there are some things that you will almost always win on in the long run if you bet on them consistently. In the second half of the McLeish season I would bet on us to draw literally every game except against the top teams and I made quite a bit of money out of that. The good thing is that the odds for draws are normally quite good so you didn't even need to win that often to be in the black.

[CVByrne]

Well I’ll try place out the logic behind successful gambling. I’ll point out where the individual skill is required too.

 

The advantage the gambler has over the bookie is we get to pick our fights, and pick who they are with. While the bookies must fight everyone all the time. By using odds comparison sites like oddschecker we can see all the odds on a specific race and select the best odds on offer. (note this is possible when starting out, ie no bookie factoring or closed accounts etc..)

 

So next we need to decide what fights to start. We do this by 3 steps. Fisrt we look at the races available on a first pass, most races are not betting races so we can easily reduce a days racing to 3 or 4 potential betting races.

 

Next we analyse the card for each of those potential betting races, we do this without knowledge of odds available. Firstly we remove horses who cannot win a race baring some complete fluke. Then get each of those races down to a shortlist of possible winners.

 

Sometimes we can create a win % for each of the remaining horses (totally to 100% or 95% or 90% if you want to price in the chance one of the no hopers can win). But sometimes it’s better to let the feel of the horses be a better guide and not put a % chance on it.

 

Now we look at oddschecker to see the odds available for the shortlist horses. It’s then we see odds that stand out to us and sometimes you see a big rick and bet heavily etc.. This early price system (which is odds go up the evening before racing) is used by bookies to let the pros “mark the card” for them. If they’re too big a price on some horse money will come and they’ll adjust the odds. The Friday night brigade would make up 4 or 5% of the bets on the race for Saturday so it’s not significant liability for bookies but a useful tool.

 

So basically we see odds offered that are out of line with what we believe it should be. This is the advantage we have, bookies have to price up every race and they’ll make mistakes, it starts at opinion vs opinion. If you are creating % chances of your shortlist horses you can convert bookies odds to implied win %. So 8/1 = 9.0 decimal odds = 1/9 = 11.1% chance of winning.

 

To point out simply how this method works we point to a bet on a dice. If you’re offered 7/1 on rolling a 6 on a dice you’d take the bet, but odds are you’ll roll a 1-5 and lose so you may not want to bet all your money. But if you could roll this dice 100 times, you’d be happy place big bets each time as this will nearly certainly average out in profit over the 100 rolls.

 

It’s this large number of bets over a season where you believe odds you have got are better than the real odds of the horse winning. It’s simply referred to as being “over priced”. This is what gets you in profit.

Edited September 12, 2013 by CVByrne

[CVByrne]

Wait for Man Utd to go a goal down (like they always do) and then bet on them winning (like they always do).

 

 

This used to be a very successful way over a season to make money. I used to work with a guy who'd bet 1-2k on a football game and United going a goal down was where he'd make the most money. But then in the 2011-2012 season United came back to win ZERO times from a goal down the whole season. It wiped him out.

 

This is called concentration risk and it's similar to the Kelly Criterion Levi mentioned.

[Risso]

I had a mate who used to play roulette in the casino, and he always tried the "wait until it's been red/black so many times in a row, then bet the other way" type system.  The problem as far as I can see it is, even after a statistically improbable 6 blacks or reds in a row, the odds of it being black or red the next time is still 50:50.  The chance of it being red, just because you've had 8 blacks in a row, doesn't become any more likely.  (and that's ignoring the zeroes as well).

[CVByrne]

Yes because they're independent outcomes. The number of times black has come up in a row has no influence on if the next will be black too.

Think of a coin toss. Is flipping a coin each time dependant on the previous toss?

Edited September 12, 2013 by CVByrne

[CVByrne]

The thing to remember with casinos is odds are never in your favour. I never bet on games of chance like Roulette or Black Jack. Only play poker in casino from time to time.