CVByrne Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Backed Sarabad in the 1:55 at Clonmel tomorrow @ 6/1 I think anything over 4/1 is good odds for him. Think he's one you can go e/w on too if you want the security. I put a score on, so half what I bet on Loch Ba today. Think he's a wee bit of value but not a stand out. Thought I'd mention it anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Risso Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Be interesting to compare the results if somebody who knows nowt about racing (eg me) picks a random horse with the same odds as the horse you pick each week. Sort of like a medical trial when they use a placebo on half the trial, and the real medicine on the other half. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 I bet on that National only as don't have a clue about Horse racing either. Never came close to a winner but suppose yeah if you have decent knowledge you can make a decent profit during the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morley_crosses_to_Withe Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Be interesting to compare the results if somebody who knows nowt about racing (eg me) picks a random horse with the same odds as the horse you pick each week. Sort of like a medical trial when they use a placebo on half the trial, and the real medicine on the other half. Have a look at the card for the 1:55 @ Clonmel and state your random selection here then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Electric Avenue Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Keep the tips coming CV, sounds like the mare ran a good race. Keep the intel coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Connections of QUESTIONS ANSWERED have had this race in mind for some time and the plan was to score at Limerick on Sunday then come here with a 4lb penalty. He achieved the first target and, as he's still 18lb lower than his chase mark, the second part looks his for the taking. Just been alerted to this. He's the fav in the Sarabad race. I put a stake saver on him at 5/2 but would probably avoid the race now if you haven't bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Electric Avenue Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Sarabad as a 5 year old is the youngest horse in the race. Will questions be asked about maturity, experience and stamina? Questions answered is the clear favourite but he's 8 years old and could find the going heavy, not that I know **** all about horses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Be interesting to compare the results if somebody who knows nowt about racing (eg me) picks a random horse with the same odds as the horse you pick each week. Sort of like a medical trial when they use a placebo on half the trial, and the real medicine on the other half. You could do the trial by going and picking the horse with the most nap's this is where sportinglife website goes and gets all the pics from all the newspapers in the country and then places the number of naps beside the horse in each card. http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/racecards/14-11-2013/ludlow/racecard/592619/weatherbys-2014-point-to-point-annual-handicap-chase That would be basically taking the most picked horse as a control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Electric Avenue Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Sarabad (FR) 7-1 (10-8) Settled towards rear, headway early straight and went 4th before last where mistake, no extra run-in, 6th of 14, 4l behind Courtncatcher (10-12) at Naas 2m 4f in Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Sarabad as a 5 year old is the youngest horse in the race. Will questions be asked about maturity, experience and stamina? Questions answered is the clear favourite but he's 8 years old and could find the going heavy, not that I know **** all about horses. Age doesn't matter too much it's amount of racing and handicap mark. Questions Answered is a chaser, ie jumps fences. His handicap mark over fences is 18 higher than his handicap over hurdles. As such he gets to race weaker horses over hurdles than he would over fences. But big horses are better over fences so he won't necessarily be as good over hurdles. Also he raced 4 days ago so many not be over the exertion fully. Sarabad is a 5yo and would likely show improvement this season as it's only his 2nd season over hurdles. But this is why I said Sarabad was a good e/w today. Should he find 1 or 2 too good you'd get your money back if you'd backed him at 5/1. He's 4/1 anyway so no value at all in those odds. You need to be betting on the horse the night before when the odds go up. We then "alert" bookies to mistakes they've made in pricing up a horse as people with the same eye will all bet on the same horse and the bookie will know they priced it wrong and cut the odds. Take Sarabad, he was 6/1 for 11 minutes with Paddy Power before he was cut to 5/1. It wasn't just me betting on him. Lots of people would have taken those odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Electric Avenue Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Ok cheers CV. Sounds like you work in the industry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Sarabad (Ruby) is a course winner and didn’t run too badly when sixth over 2m 4f at Naas last time. He has his trip today and he will like the ground. Willie Mullins views on Sarabad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Sarabad now 11/4, looks like I was right he was over priced and have got the value at 6/1. Now just need him to win Think I'll lay my stake back on betfair if he get's near 9/4 or 5/2 as he's then become under priced and as such has to be layed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Electric Avenue Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 1st 9 Questions Answered (IRE) 7/4 f 2nd 6 Supreme Carolina (IRE) 20/1 3rd 4 Skibabe (IRE) 9/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eames Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 (edited) So after 2 attempts the scores are in: Bookies 2 CV Byrne 0 You've even managed to talk the bloke out of backing the winner!! How to beat the Bookie. Long term you won't. Don't bother. Its a mugs game. Bet with what you can afford to lose and when you win walk away THATS the only way you come out on top. Edited November 14, 2013 by Eames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Electric Avenue Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 I think the saying is "it's a mugs game" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigel Posted November 14, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted November 14, 2013 So after 2 attempts the scores are in: Bookies 2 CV Byrne 0 You've even managed to talk the bloke out of backing the winner!! I dont think anyone is expecting him to be 100%. He is just telling us who he is betting on....money and mouth and all that! Im fascinated by the detail he goes into with a sport i know nothing about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisH Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 There is money to be made here regardless of the horses winning. CV is identifying horses who are over priced, by taking the odds early then laying through an exchange closer to the off will provide guaranteed profits. Keep the tips coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 So after 2 attempts the scores are in: Bookies 2 CV Byrne 0 You've even managed to talk the bloke out of backing the winner!! How to beat the Bookie. Long term you won't. Don't bother. Its a mugs game. Bet with what you can afford to lose and when you win walk away THATS the only way you come out on top. I backed two 6/1 shots midweek man. The combined odds that I should have won from those two bets is 28%. As you may have read I said I put a saver on Questions Answered @ 5/2 who won the race today. Meaning nothing lost. The first one Loch Ba yesterday could well have won if he jumped the last better. The second one weakened badly today. Both went off half the odds I backed them at showing the market agreed they were over priced. I had 16/1 e/w on Houblon des Obeaux the other week. That covers 20 bets that one win. So I can bet 19 times with the same stake in a row and lose all of them and still be in profit from that one win. The name of the game is value hunting, you have to be able to accept the vast majority of bets will lose. But the few winners you get will be big paydays. Keep track of the p&l on here for the season will prove this to you. Loch Ba -£40 Sarabad -£20 Questions Answered +£25 So far. I've a gem tomorrow and 2 other bets. I'll post shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 (edited) Cheltenham tomorrow (Friday) 13:05 Mr Moss e/w 16/1 – Very likeable consistent horse, ran a couple of good races in defeat last term. Clearly prefers better ground and his 2nd to now 143 rated Quentin Collonges at Donny is solid form, especially as he was giving him 5lbs that day. So there is big scope in his current mark of 138. He clearly ran no sort of race in the B365 and was wearing a tongue strap that day so maybe his wind was bothering him and it’s possible he had it sorted in the summer. Had his usual prep over hurdles to sharpen him up and the booking of the supreme horseman himself is noteworthy. Looking a stand out bet this one. Amazed at those odds tbh. But the fav will be very hard to beat in this Standing Ovation. So did a forecast Standing Ovation 1st, Mr Moss 2nd @ 28/1 too 14:40 Top Gamble e/w 6/1 – This race is a Memorial race for the Pipe families close friend David Johnson, who David Pipe trained national winner Comply or Die for. So we’re looking to their only runner Top Gamble. Won his novice hurdle easily on his last start in Feb. Now rated 133 on h/c debut here, he is stepped up in trip and gets to race on good ground, given his Sire is Presenting both should see improvement. 15:50 Edmaaj e/w 7/1 – AP McCoy is doing 10-6 to ride this novice, I’ve no idea when the last time he did that weight was. His lowest in the past year is 10-3. Tip in itself that and the horse is available at pretty big odds. The first one is £25 e/w Next two are £20 e/w £10 win Edited November 14, 2013 by CVByrne 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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