The Randy Lerner thread

[TrentVilla]

El-Reacho wrote:

Just my take on what's going on.

Why? Because it appears as if you've not the first clue.

Fair enough, I don't know what's going on behind the scenes and you don't know what's going on behind the scenes but I'll withhold my views because you're right.

Well yes I am right about the debt for a start. We are in a far worse financial position than we were when Randy arrived.

You are perfectly entitled to post your opinions but when your opinions are factually incorrect such as saying we are in the same position as when he arrived you are likely to get challenged on it.

Although apologies that does come across as rude and I didn't intend it to.

[blandy]

When you've failed so spectacularly, the best course of action is to get out while your investment is still worth something.

Like Mike Ashley did at Newcas....Oh wait!

And as advice goes, I have to say that yours above, and Richard's view "just find an even richer bloke to throw loads of money at it" sort of comes across as a bit less than fully thought through - leaving out just one or two bits of detail, like what do you do if you've limited money right now, or if a search takes, like, "a long time".

The issue here is a disconnect between what we consider to be underperforming and what the owner considers to be underperforming.

In the Chelsea case the owner and the fans were celarly on the same page, it's very clear what's expected and the funds are in place o ensure that is possible.

At Villa we tend be reluctant to accept that due to financial contraints we have fallen behind other clubs we were regulary finishing above previously. There is a much larger grey area around what is wanted and what is the minimum that is sustainable. Whilst i honestly belive the board thought we should (and I agree) be higher up the table, I dont think they're prepared to sack the guy for finishing 15th. I also think they will have remembered us being around the drop zone for a while last season until a strong finish had us up to 9th. I'm not saying that will def happen again but I think the owner would be reluctant to sack McLeish at this point given our position of relative safety.

Where we finish on the last day of the season may or may not give Lerner a tough decision to make, and I think if we're any closer to the drop zone he may look to replace the manager, but a lot of that will depend on what has been said between the 2 behind closed doors and what managers might be available to us if we were to sack McLeish.

That is an excellent post.

I think it is excellent too but as an excellent example of the kind of passive acceptance that Lerner is getting. The kind that was never afforded to Ellis.

I will not excuse Lerner, as some do in my opinion, because he is not Ellis....

We would never have excused the managerial decisions taken by Lerner if Ellis had taken them, and certainly not in the way described by the initial post here.

The reason I think stan's post was excellent is because it's a rare example of someone looking at the thing from a different perspective. It's not (to me) an "excuse" for Randy Lerner, or even an "acceptance" of some kind. It reads to me like a good attempt to try and see how things appear from the board's perspective. It doesn't anywhere say things are just peachy, or excuse decisions taken. It just tries to explain from a different angle.

As far as I can see no one is "excusing" the appointment of McLeish. Everyone I know thought it was a bonkers decision that would end badly. There's not, to my knowledge a single Villa fan outside the board that thought it was a good idea, and we universally said so. While most everyone hoped it would work out, because that would mean the team and club would consequently also do well, no-one really believed it would.

I notice the repeating of your opinion that people excuse Lerner because he's not Ellis, but I think you're wrong. I think he got credit for not being Ellis (who wouldn't) and he subsequently got credit for many of the good things he has done. But equally people criticise him when he gets things wrong. In other words, from my perspective, people recognise he's far from perfect, that he's made mistakes, but also give him credit for where he's done well. It's fine if you or anyone else has had enough of him, wants him out, or whatever. Me. I'd like him to stop making bad decisions and start making good ones again. I put a great deal of weight behind someone's motivation - why they do what they do, and what they want to do. Randy's motivation, to me seems a lot more appealing than HDE's ever did. In simple terms with HDE it was all about how to get himself on the FA, or on the telly, or in the media - self promotion and aggrandisement. With RL it's the opposite - he seems to want the club to do well and do the right thing for the Club's sake, for the community and for the fans, not for himself. It might make no odds, but it's preferable to me. Ultimately it's results that he is judged by, and right now, they're dire. The club is getting a lot more wrong than right. No one is happy.

They took a huge, huge risk appointing McLeish and it unsurprisingly blew up in their faces and they clearly didn't and don't understand the fans perspective on the appointment and all that's followed it. Worse, they can't use the manager to communicate (as they did with MO'N) because the current manager is pretty much reviled universally by the fans for his results, style of football and past employers and no-one listens to him or trusts or believes in him.

They've stopped doing what they were good at, and unfortunately taken from all the other clubs the worst of what is the norm (in the abnormal world of football). Ignoring supporters concerns and views, pricing, and taking for granted the driving reasons people go to games and so on. They don't communicate and when they do, they do it badly and through the wrong channels. They don't seem to get good advice, and they seem to get it from the wrong people.

But it is rectifiable and I do believe that they could rectify it. Whether they will anyones guess, but I give them the benefit of the doubt, personally.

Things they could do are

1. Get back onto Keith Harris and the other advisers they used at the start and identify the next manager, and second choice and so on. We all know what type we want/need given the budget and while we're never going to agree on every name, that's neither here nor there. Identify a list of e.g. Lambert/Martinez/Poyet/whoever... and get rid of McLeish, whatever division we're in, as soon as the season is finished and the loose ends are tidied up.

2. Talk to the players and fans about what the hell is going on - be honest, talk about the mistakes they've made, what they're going to do differently, what they want to see on and off the pitch, what the plan is on and off the pitch.

3. Make a major effort, in a non-corporate speak way to define what the club is about, what it's for, what they want from us and the players and manager and staff and fans and sponsors and commercial partners and media and vice versa.

4. Listen. Then listen some more. Act on what they're told as far as they are able as to what the players, manager, fans and sponsors and commercial partners and want from them.

If they don't they're gonna lose big style - financially, reputationally, and personally.

Leadership is needed along with humility, flexibility, effort and honesty.

[sne]

Sure it's been posted before but here is a list of the transfer spendings in the PL between 2006 (when Randy took over) and 2011.

http://www.transferleague.co.uk/league-tables/2006-2011.html

Only 4 teams have higher nett spendings than us during this period so any way you look at it we are massivly underperforming in the league.

Before anyone points to Arsenal as the shining example to follow they have not won a title at all during this period so the only ones who are happy at Arsenal are the shareholders

[Big_John_10]

With RL it's the opposite - he seems to want the club to do well and do the right thing for the Club's sake, for the community and for the fans, not for himself.

And yet both his sports teams are performing badly and seem to have nothing but a mediocre future to look forward to.

Surely in the world of competitive sports good intentions is not enough. I'm sure Heskey is a good guy who wants to do well for us and wants the club to do well but would you like to see him start every game because he has good intentions?

[Bazdavies79]

Meh, if he gets a decent manager in everyone will love him again. Football is quite fickle.

[Risso]

When you've failed so spectacularly, the best course of action is to get out while your investment is still worth something.

Like Mike Ashley did at Newcas....Oh wait!

And as advice goes, I have to say that yours above, and Richard's view "just find an even richer bloke to throw loads of money at it" sort of comes across as a bit less than fully thought through - leaving out just one or two bits of detail, like what do you do if you've limited money right now, or if a search takes, like, "a long time".

Quite a bit of putting words in mouths there Pete. Where did I mention "an even richer bloke". That's just a repetition of the ill thought out "but how many oil barons are waiting in the wings?" type posts that appear whenever anybody questions Lerner. Lots of clubs above us in the league are owned by less well-off but seemingly much more switched on owners.

Also the club is worth less than when Lerner bought it, such is the huge amount of debt he's saddled us with.

As for Randy's motivation, I think his whole approach from the word go has been deeply cynical, with a concerted "hearts and minds" approach that is nothing to do with having the right motives, and everything to do with underhand attempts to get the fans on side. Everything from the General on here, to letting slip bits of info to the likes of Mysteryman, to Paul Faulkner being "bessie mates" with key people from here, Vital Villa and H&V. It's all bollocks, and if you're right about something it's that I've had a bellyful of Lerner. He's a busted flush, and can't and won't put things right.

[CI]

Does anyone have the figures on how much Lerner has taken OUT of the club in £m's

[OutByEaster?]

Does anyone have the figures on how much Lerner has taken OUT of the club in £m's

I think there are some sort of management charges or similar listed in the accounts which amount to five or six million pounds a year, but they are much outweighed by the amounts he's putting in still. I think in the last (awful) set of accounts he'd put in another twenty million pounds out of his own pocket during that year. (About twice the value of our season ticket sales.)

I am in no way sure and I'm in a bit of a hurry and can't check these numbers but very roughly and off the top of my head, I suspect the answer to your question is that he's put in about £80m of his own money during the time he's been here and he's loan the club about £100m on top of that.

[CI]

Yeah that does ring a bell, I think he put £25m in as a one off for example during 10/11 just to keep things turning over

Nothing makes sense on any level

[PieFacE]

Yeah that does ring a bell, I think he put £25m in as a one off for example during 10/11 just to keep things turning over

Nothing makes sense on any level

What doesnt make sense?

It's pretty simple.. Randy gambled on Champions League, didnt get it, now can't afford to keep pushing for it. So he hires McLeish 'cos he's a manager who will work under a tight budget, and now we're skint and losing money each year until we sort wages out, which is what McLeish has been instructed to do and is what he is doing. Untill the wages and finances have been sorted out Randy will probably keep putting his own money into the club.

It is that simple.

Unless i've misunderstood what you meant?

[CI]

I was using the cynical assumption he was just using the club as a bank and charging inflated interest rates for all the loans

I still think once the books are balanced he will refinance the £200m against a huge mortgage that the club will be straddled with while RL gets his outlay back plus whatever interest he's "earned" over the 5 or 6 years

Not that outlandish or difficult to comprehend no

[barry'sboots]

When you've failed so spectacularly, the best course of action is to get out while your investment is still worth something.

Like Mike Ashley did at Newcas....Oh wait!

And as advice goes, I have to say that yours above, and Richard's view "just find an even richer bloke to throw loads of money at it" sort of comes across as a bit less than fully thought through - leaving out just one or two bits of detail, like what do you do if you've limited money right now, or if a search takes, like, "a long time".

Agree with Risso above. No-one is asking for a moneybags, just someone who understands how to run a football club and has a broader approach than just appointing a board of cronies/"yes" men and a manager that ..... well I am struggling to define McTool in managerial terms!

The issue here is a disconnect between what we consider to be underperforming and what the owner considers to be underperforming.

In the Chelsea case the owner and the fans were celarly on the same page, it's very clear what's expected and the funds are in place o ensure that is possible.

At Villa we tend be reluctant to accept that due to financial contraints we have fallen behind other clubs we were regulary finishing above previously. There is a much larger grey area around what is wanted and what is the minimum that is sustainable. Whilst i honestly belive the board thought we should (and I agree) be higher up the table, I dont think they're prepared to sack the guy for finishing 15th. I also think they will have remembered us being around the drop zone for a while last season until a strong finish had us up to 9th. I'm not saying that will def happen again but I think the owner would be reluctant to sack McLeish at this point given our position of relative safety.

Where we finish on the last day of the season may or may not give Lerner a tough decision to make, and I think if we're any closer to the drop zone he may look to replace the manager, but a lot of that will depend on what has been said between the 2 behind closed doors and what managers might be available to us if we were to sack McLeish.

That is an excellent post.

I think it is excellent too but as an excellent example of the kind of passive acceptance that Lerner is getting. The kind that was never afforded to Ellis.

I will not excuse Lerner, as some do in my opinion, because he is not Ellis....

We would never have excused the managerial decisions taken by Lerner if Ellis had taken them, and certainly not in the way described by the initial post here.

The reason I think stan's post was excellent is because it's a rare example of someone looking at the thing from a different perspective. It's not (to me) an "excuse" for Randy Lerner, or even an "acceptance" of some kind. It reads to me like a good attempt to try and see how things appear from the board's perspective. It doesn't anywhere say things are just peachy, or excuse decisions taken. It just tries to explain from a different angle.

As far as I can see no one is "excusing" the appointment of McLeish. Everyone I know thought it was a bonkers decision that would end badly. There's not, to my knowledge a single Villa fan outside the board that thought it was a good idea, and we universally said so. While most everyone hoped it would work out, because that would mean the team and club would consequently also do well, no-one really believed it would.

I notice the repeating of your opinion that people excuse Lerner because he's not Ellis, but I think you're wrong. I think he got credit for not being Ellis (who wouldn't) and he subsequently got credit for many of the good things he has done. But equally people criticise him when he gets things wrong. In other words, from my perspective, people recognise he's far from perfect, that he's made mistakes, but also give him credit for where he's done well. It's fine if you or anyone else has had enough of him, wants him out, or whatever. Me. I'd like him to stop making bad decisions and start making good ones again. I put a great deal of weight behind someone's motivation - why they do what they do, and what they want to do. Randy's motivation, to me seems a lot more appealing than HDE's ever did. In simple terms with HDE it was all about how to get himself on the FA, or on the telly, or in the media - self promotion and aggrandisement. With RL it's the opposite - he seems to want the club to do well and do the right thing for the Club's sake, for the community and for the fans, not for himself. It might make no odds, but it's preferable to me. Ultimately it's results that he is judged by, and right now, they're dire. The club is getting a lot more wrong than right. No one is happy.

They took a huge, huge risk appointing McLeish and it unsurprisingly blew up in their faces and they clearly didn't and don't understand the fans perspective on the appointment and all that's followed it. Worse, they can't use the manager to communicate (as they did with MO'N) because the current manager is pretty much reviled universally by the fans for his results, style of football and past employers and no-one listens to him or trusts or believes in him.

They've stopped doing what they were good at, and unfortunately taken from all the other clubs the worst of what is the norm (in the abnormal world of football). Ignoring supporters concerns and views, pricing, and taking for granted the driving reasons people go to games and so on. They don't communicate and when they do, they do it badly and through the wrong channels. They don't seem to get good advice, and they seem to get it from the wrong people.

But it is rectifiable and I do believe that they could rectify it. Whether they will anyones guess, but I give them the benefit of the doubt, personally.

Things they could do are

1. Get back onto Keith Harris and the other advisers they used at the start and identify the next manager, and second choice and so on. We all know what type we want/need given the budget and while we're never going to agree on every name, that's neither here nor there. Identify a list of e.g. Lambert/Martinez/Poyet/whoever... and get rid of McLeish, whatever division we're in, as soon as the season is finished and the loose ends are tidied up.

2. Talk to the players and fans about what the hell is going on - be honest, talk about the mistakes they've made, what they're going to do differently, what they want to see on and off the pitch, what the plan is on and off the pitch.

3. Make a major effort, in a non-corporate speak way to define what the club is about, what it's for, what they want from us and the players and manager and staff and fans and sponsors and commercial partners and media and vice versa.

4. Listen. Then listen some more. Act on what they're told as far as they are able as to what the players, manager, fans and sponsors and commercial partners and want from them.

If they don't they're gonna lose big style - financially, reputationally, and personally.

Leadership is needed along with humility, flexibility, effort and honesty.

I think most Villa fans accept that we are not currently financially able to compete with the Sky 4 + Citeh and probably, to a lesser extent, with Spurs. But there is no reason we shouldn't be trying to Newcastle, Everton and Sunderland. And there is definitely no reason why we shouldn't be competing with Norwich and Swansea.

It seems to me that Newcastle and the two promoted clubs referred to have a plan. They have a style of play and recruitment strategy that works for them. They all have decent managers. I don't think we have anything resembling a plan?

As for your list, I am not sure about Keith Harris. I thought he was a broker and not necessarily someone that would appreciate a good manager? For me it would be as follows:

1. Get the board right first. We need a football person - David Dien would be ideal but I wouldn't mind BFR or Graham Taylor - and if we had the latter we need a Chief Executive with gravitas who has run a £100m niche consumer business.

2. That board then needs to set a strategic framework for the development of the club - including wages, balanced squad, youth development (loan etc.), style of play, recruitment etc. and then pick a manager that suits and can work within these parameters or even challenge and improve the strategy.

I think your point about communication is spot on and the development of 2 above should allow them to do this. This strategy and the communication would address your third point and the fourth point quite clearly needs to be considered in setting, and constantly re-evaluating, that strategy.

Whilst I agree with much of what you say, I see absolutely no evidence to date in RL's amateurish running of the club (a board that consists of all of his cronies with no external input and incredibly poor managerial appointments) that he will be able to deliver any of this.

[blandy]

When you've failed so spectacularly, the best course of action is to get out while your investment is still worth something.

Like Mike Ashley did at Newcas....Oh wait!

And as advice goes, I have to say that yours above, and Richard's view "just find an even richer bloke to throw loads of money at it" sort of comes across as a bit less than fully thought through - leaving out just one or two bits of detail, like what do you do if you've limited money right now, or if a search takes, like, "a long time".

Quite a bit of putting words in mouths there Pete. Where did I mention "an even richer bloke". That's just a repetition of the ill thought out "but how many oil barons are waiting in the wings?" type posts that appear whenever anybody questions Lerner. Lots of clubs above us in the league are owned by less well-off but seemingly much more switched on owners.

Also the club is nominally worth less than when Lerner bought it, such is the huge amount of debt he's saddled us with.

As for Randy's motivation, I think his whole approach from the word go has been deeply cynical, with a concerted "hearts and minds" approach that is nothing to do with having the right motives, and everything to do with underhand attempts to get the fans on side. Everything from the General on here, to letting slip bits of info to the likes of Mysteryman, to Paul Faulkner being "bessie mates" with key people from here, Vital Villa and H&V. It's all bollocks, and if you're right about something it's that I've had a bellyful of Lerner. He's a busted flush, and can't and won't put things right.

Sorry, Risso, I thought that your advice to "get out while your investment is still worth something" was along similar lines to Richard's post where he said he wanted Randy to find someone with more money.

The question I asked was what should he do now. I thought you meant "sell up" when you wrote that. If you didn't, then sorry, but it does look like that's what you meant. And if you did, surely the buyer would have to be richer? Selling to someone with less money available seems, er, counter-productive.

I don't think he's cynical, though I agree about the way they communicate, but each to their own.

[villaajax]

When you've failed so spectacularly, the best course of action is to get out while your investment is still worth something.

Like Mike Ashley did at Newcas....Oh wait!

And as advice goes, I have to say that yours above, and Richard's view "just find an even richer bloke to throw loads of money at it" sort of comes across as a bit less than fully thought through - leaving out just one or two bits of detail, like what do you do if you've limited money right now, or if a search takes, like, "a long time".

Quite a bit of putting words in mouths there Pete. Where did I mention "an even richer bloke". That's just a repetition of the ill thought out "but how many oil barons are waiting in the wings?" type posts that appear whenever anybody questions Lerner. Lots of clubs above us in the league are owned by less well-off but seemingly much more switched on owners.

Also the club is nominally worth less than when Lerner bought it, such is the huge amount of debt he's saddled us with.

As for Randy's motivation, I think his whole approach from the word go has been deeply cynical, with a concerted "hearts and minds" approach that is nothing to do with having the right motives, and everything to do with underhand attempts to get the fans on side. Everything from the General on here, to letting slip bits of info to the likes of Mysteryman, to Paul Faulkner being "bessie mates" with key people from here, Vital Villa and H&V. It's all bollocks, and if you're right about something it's that I've had a bellyful of Lerner. He's a busted flush, and can't and won't put things right.

Sorry, Risso, I thought that your advice to "get out while your investment is still worth something" was along similar lines to Richard's post where he said he wanted Randy to find someone with more money.

The question I asked was what should he do now. I thought you meant "sell up" when you wrote that. If you didn't, then sorry, but it does look like that's what you meant. And if you did, surely the buyer would have to be richer? Selling to someone with less money available seems, er, counter-productive.

I don't think he's cynical, though I agree about the way they communicate, but each to their own.

You never know, signing a manager with less ability is counter productive

[PompeyVillan]

To those who say we should sell. Who do we sell to?

Of course, the club has been run poorly in a financial sense, and a lot could be done to do things more sustainably. However, the fact remains that without significant investment each year, Aston Villa are at best a top 10 club.

From a purely financial viewpoint, it very much seems to me that it's a case of better the devil you know. I don't realistically see anyone wealthier than Randy swooping in and taking the club forward, and it would seem a great risk for a less wealthy owner to take the club on. I don't claim to know much about who is interested in buying a football team, but this is how it appears to me.

Would I be correct in thinking that alot of the money that is being lost is Randy's in any case?

[CI]

I think history will show Lerner doesn't lose a penny

It's the club ultimately that will be left hanging

[smetrov]

did his attendance at VP season ever get past 1 ?

[TRO]

The club is like a piece of driftwood, just being tossed around in the waves.

No direction, no drive.... just a crowd of meal ticket hunters, that's all we have become.

[OutByEaster?]

It's a strange one - Lerner is like a man who has bought an old house, and every year he pays a lot of money to have a little bit more of it done up, it gets painted, re-wired and re-plastered and it costs him a fortune - you'd think by now that the house would be looking good, but unfortunately he's chosen to let a group of drug crazed travelers live in it so for the last three years all he's been doing is having to redecorate and replace the carpets.

He's invested a fortune in recent years and it seems he's still putting it in, but until he can find a way to make that money matter, it's been completely wasted - I think the interest is still there, I think the investment is still available - I just think he's doing it wrong.

[blandy]

He's invested a fortune in recent years and it seems he's still putting it in, but until he can find a way to make that money matter, it's been completely wasted - I think the interest is still there, I think the investment is still available - I just think he's doing it wrong.

Exactly. He's made some significant mistakes, and we need him to stop making them and start making good decisions again. Clearly a lot of people have decided they just want him out, but personally I'd be very happy for him to stay and "get it right". Like you say, the interest is there and I feel the motivation and motives are good.

The key thing from both a fans point of view and a players point of view is the choice of manager. Get that right and you'll sell tickets and merchandise and corporate boxes and sponsorship and so on, and you'll also have someone take care of the "image" of the club and then it's a case of the background stuff being left to people who are capable, and who don't need to be steeped in the traditions of football - just capable businessmen and administrators and so on.

The other thing that's being addressed is the wages, but while it's being addressed the club is not going to be competitive, whoever the manager is. WHat has to happen while the squad is being re-shaped is that the mentality instilled has to be right and the style of football has to be right. That's where IMO McLeish has failed.

People will go to games if they have hope - hope that they will see a good game, be entertained get value for their hard earned cash and/or see the team win. None of those things are present at the moment, nor have they been for 90% of the season, perhaps all of it.

The board and Randy could really do with bringing back some hope into the thing.