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Will 35 points be enough?


MONCABA
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I have been having a look at our remaining games.

Trying to be objective and not letting my heart rule my head, I have come up with the following possible results:

Everton - draw

West Ham - Villa win

Arsenal - Villa loss

Man City - Villa loss

Reading - Villa win

QPR - Villa win

Liverpool - draw

Stoke - Villa loss

Fulham - Villa win

Man Utd - Villa loss

Sunderland - draw

Norwich - Villa loss

Chelsea - Villa loss

Wigan - Villa loss

This would leave us finishing our league campaign on 35 points.

Is that enough?

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Everton - Villa loss
West Ham - Villa win
Arsenal - Villa loss
Man City - Villa loss
Reading - Villa win
QPR - Villa draw
Liverpool - loss
Stoke - Villa loss
Fulham - Villa draw
Man Utd - Villa loss
Sunderland - Villa draw
Norwich - Villa win
Chelsea - Villa loss
Wigan - Villa draw

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I look at the fixtures now and I don't see any games where I think "We'll win that"

 

I'm sure we will some, but I couldn't tell you which ones.

 

I literally fear everyone at the moment.

 

But to answer the OP's question, yes I reckon it will be enough. Whether we'll get there is another question.

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Right now we won't win any more games with the manager playing the current system 3-5-2.

 

We've won just 4 matches in total this year and we're not going to win another playing 3 defenders.

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The aim should be 18 points - 6 wins - in our remaining games.

 

The sooner we get a win the better, and maybe if we sneak a result against one of the big boys and can build confidence from there, who knows.

 

Looking at it objectively, however, it is incredibly unlikely and this past month has buggered us completely and I don't think it can be repaired.

 

We can only hope that a few teams collapse around us and it remains a dog fight until the end, rather than us imploding completely and having our fate sealed by April.

Edited by CarewsEyebrowDesigner
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Victories against Reading, West Ham, Sunderland and Fulham

Draws against Stoke, QPR and Norwich.

Will go to the last game of the season at Wigan and we'll win to stay up.

 

38 points - Job done !

 

that's 35 points.

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No - i beleive 39 pts will be the magic number this year based on statistical projections i ran earlier today.

 

However, GD will play a factor, and according to my projections we will go down on the basis of a -2 worse GD than wigan.

 

How d'ya like them apples?

 

This however doesn't take into account a two game win streak in the next 8 games, which if we achieve, blows my projections to bits.

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No - i beleive 39 pts will be the magic number this year based on statistical projections i ran earlier today.

 

However, GD will play a factor, and according to my projections we will go down on the basis of a -2 worse GD than wigan.

 

How d'ya like them apples?

 

This however doesn't take into account a two game win streak in the next 8 games, which if we achieve, blows my projections to bits.

To get 39 points:

QPR would need to get 23 points from their remaining 14 games (equivalent of 7 wins and 2 draws)

Villa would need to get 19 (equivalent of 6 wins and a draw)

Wigan would need to get 19 (equivalent of 6 wins and a draw)

Reading would need to get 19 (equivalent of 6 wins and a draw)

And Southampton would need 16 (5 wins and a draw)

For 39 to be the magic number, 3 of those 5 scenarios need to happen.

I don't see that at all.

I think it will be a few points less than 39 for sure.

Edited by Stevo985
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To get 39 points:

QPR would need to get 23 points from their remaining 14 games (equivalent of 7 wins and 2 draws)

Villa would need to get 19 (equivalent of 6 wins and a draw)

Wigan would need to get 19 (equivalent of 6 wins and a draw)

Reading would need to get 19 (equivalent of 6 wins and a draw)

And Southampton would need 16 (5 wins and a draw)

For 39 to be the magic number, 3 of those 5 scenarios need to happen.

I don't see that at all.

I think it will be a few points less than 39 for sure.

 

My projections suggest otherwise

 

tumblr_mde5awWBdc1r1gapro1_400.gif

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35 points will probably be enough but on current form I don't think we'll get them!

 

If you had started this forecast a couple of weeks ago would you have written in home defeats to Southampton and Newcastle? I doubt it! This team is sinking to lows even we find it hard to imagine. 

 

Of the games left  I think you can write off Everton, Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool, Man Utd, and Chelsea. (That's not to say we may not sneak one or two points here and there but it would be wrong to count on anything from them)

 

So we need 15 points from the remaining 8: 5 wins or 4 wins and 3 draws.

 

Maybe Sylla and Dawkins will stabilise things, inspire their new colleagues to a step change in performance and drive us forward to  an improvement of nearly 30 percent in our performance so far this season. We can but hope...

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