NeilS Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 I will not believe we are safe until it is mathmatically certain that we'll stay up. As BOF says the other teams around us still picking up points or have time to turn things around, and I think there are only two clubs that have one foot out of the door, Reading and QPR. We looked dead and buried a few weeks ago, and it is not beyond the realms of possibility that the others can turn it around as well. It is silly season in the league where teams will unexpectedly win games that they normally wouldn't. See Wigan last season. If we can beat Sunderland and Fulham then I will start to believe we're going to stay up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted April 8, 2013 Moderator Share Posted April 8, 2013 Why are we so much better away than at home, We have had better away records than home for 4 of the last 5 seasons, only under Houllier was we better at home, this season we have the 9th bets away record, but the 3rd worst home recordBecause the players are nervous that the crowd will get on their backs if they mess up at home, so they end up not playing with the freedom that they get away from home. It's not unique to us although we seem fairly consistent with it.One encouraging thing is that we seem to be better at handling the poorer sides who come to VP to sit back. We used to struggle to break them down. Now granted we're still poor overall and have a great deal of room for improvement, but we garner almost as many points per game at home to the bottom sides as away to them. Our real problem is home to top half sides... So, next up, Fulham at home ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SikhInTrinity Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 If we have 11 remaining on the field after Dowd's appointment that seems unlikely, but we should really beat Fulham at home, they have quality players and on their day they are very dangerous, I just think they don't seem to like teams being physical with them and Benteke will trouble them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted April 8, 2013 Moderator Share Posted April 8, 2013 And as bad as we are at home, they're worse away (although only just). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SikhInTrinity Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 I think if we play like we have been in the past few games we should be fine, I think Sidwell is a big miss for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ponky Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Not only will we beat Fulham, I predict this will be our first clean sheet since Matt Lowton last wet the bed 13 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KjParton Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Fulham are poor away from home, but they're a tough side to break down. As we saw yesterday Newcastle struggled to break them down. I saw enough in the highlights of their game yesterday however to see that we have a chance of picking up some points. During parts Newcastle were all over them and probably should have scored 2/3 goals. We need to show the never say die attitude like Newcastle did and like we did last year against them, 3 1/2 minutes in to 4 added on, only for Weimann to bundle home. What a first goal to score for your club! Hoping we can get a result, but we have to get at them. I loved the analysis of our players vs Stoke. We were harrying and harassing their players constantly nipping at their heels to try and get the ball back. Gabby tracked back and made a great tackle to win the ball back (which eventually I believe set Weimann up for hitting the post). We need to show that attitude to try and beat them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biskitt Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 The thing that encourages me most is that we have 4 players in Gabby, Benteke, Wiemann and Bent who can score goals. We've only failed to score in 2 games since the start of the year and 1 of those games was against Man City who comfortably have the best defensive record in the league. Sunderland have failed to score in 5 games (in all competitions) in the same period, have lost their main goal threat and have an untested Wickham and an out of form Danny Graham as their striking options. Stoke have failed to score in 9 games since January and bar their goal, looked as threatening as a 3 day old kitten on Saturday. Norwich have failed to score in 8 games in the same period and have won 1 league game since the start of the year. I'm not saying its all rosy but I do think we're on an upwards trajectory which you can't say about the other 3 teams above and I think we've got enough about us to stay up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amo69 Posted April 8, 2013 Author Share Posted April 8, 2013 Come on guys amend those votes. Surely a majority still doesn't think we'll go down after what we've see in the last few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TezzRexx Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Mines set to going down but I'm not changing the vote just yet as I appear to be a massive jinx! So that's all I'll say for the time being 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaAlex Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 I don't understand why the players get so nervous this season. The crowd has at large been generally supportive, and the only criticism you could give is the lack of atmosphere. It's a lot different to last season when every game you could feel negativity in the air around the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Why are we so much better away than at home, We have had better away records than home for 4 of the last 5 seasons, only under Houllier was we better at home, this season we have the 9th bets away record, but the 3rd worst home record Someday when I'm REALLY bored and have no prospect of any fun for about 2 weeks, I'm going to have a go at estimating the number of points we've lost over the seasons due to the pressure and air of criticism from the fans that pervades at Villa Park. In my view it's been a serious issue for some time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaForever1970 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 And as bad as we are at home, they're worse away (although only just).Jesus, they sound shitter than Reading! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pongotastic Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 I think Blues might have thought they had a home banker when in the midst of a relegation scrap Fulham visited St Andrew's 2 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qwpzxjor1 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 The fixture list is still a little worrying. If we fail to beat Fulham then we have Man Utd away next up - could easily see us back in the drop zone and pressure is back on. Stoke have some very winnable games, after Man Utd this weekend (who will hopefully be looking to bounce back after last night's result). Sunderland play us, Stoke and Southampton - so their fate is very much in their own hands. We're looking in better shape than we were - but Fulham at home is our most important game since the last one, which in turn was our biggest game since the one before that, which in turn was... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lexicon Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 I deleted my vote but I'm too worried about jinxing us by selecting no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SikhInTrinity Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 I think it all depends on Saturdays result of whether we go down or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaCas Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 I think we'll need the full 40pts this season. Everyone around us is picking up points and of the ones who are struggling, I would expect Stoke and Sunderland to do something between now and the end of the season. Form is temporary and they'll break out of it sooner or later. We've won 3 in 4 and yet we're still only 2pts off the drop. If we can beat Fulham then I'll begin to breathe more easily but that game is far from a sure thing. They're playing very well and we're crap at home. But given next week's fixtures, if we did beat them then I think we'd find ourselves quite far from the relegation zone with our rivals having mostly tripped up. 1) "I think we'll need the full 40pts this season" - No way will we need 40 pts this season - It looks so tight that it might be possible to avoid relegation with as low as 35 pts this time round 2) "Everyone around us is picking up points" - No they're not. Stoke have picked up 1 from the last 15, Stoke 2 from the last 15 and Norwich 3 from the last 15. They're all dropping like stones 3) "Form is temporary" - the rest of this quote is "...and class is permanent" Stoke, Sunderland and Norwich are not class teams, they're below average journeymen 4) "they'll break out of it sooner or later" - based on what We're not out the woods yet, but a win against Fulham and we can begin to relax. That would put us 3 points behind Fulham with five to play, so if as you say "they're playing very well", on that basis we must be too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Why are we so much better away than at home, We have had better away records than home for 4 of the last 5 seasons, only under Houllier was we better at home, this season we have the 9th bets away record, but the 3rd worst home record Because the players are nervous that the crowd will get on their backs if they mess up at home, so they end up not playing with the freedom that they get away from home. It's not unique to us although we seem fairly consistent with it. One encouraging thing is that we seem to be better at handling the poorer sides who come to VP to sit back. We used to struggle to break them down. Now granted we're still poor overall and have a great deal of room for improvement, but we garner almost as many points per game at home to the bottom sides as away to them. Our real problem is home to top half sides... So, next up, Fulham at home ... I think a big factor is that we set up as a counter attcking side, being good on the break, and we have done since O'Neil arrived. That works well away where teams push forward leaving gaps but at home where teams are more cautous and pick their moments to attack we struggle to break them down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted April 9, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted April 9, 2013 I think we'll need the full 40pts this season. Everyone around us is picking up points and of the ones who are struggling, I would expect Stoke and Sunderland to do something between now and the end of the season. Form is temporary and they'll break out of it sooner or later. We've won 3 in 4 and yet we're still only 2pts off the drop. If we can beat Fulham then I'll begin to breathe more easily but that game is far from a sure thing. They're playing very well and we're crap at home. But given next week's fixtures, if we did beat them then I think we'd find ourselves quite far from the relegation zone with our rivals having mostly tripped up. 1) "I think we'll need the full 40pts this season" - No way will we need 40 pts this season - It looks so tight that it might be possible to avoid relegation with as low as 35 pts this time round 2) "Everyone around us is picking up points" - No they're not. Stoke have picked up 1 from the last 15, Stoke 2 from the last 15 and Norwich 3 from the last 15. They're all dropping like stones 3) "Form is temporary" - the rest of this quote is "...and class is permanent" Stoke, Sunderland and Norwich are not class teams, they're below average journeymen 4) "they'll break out of it sooner or later" - based on what We're not out the woods yet, but a win against Fulham and we can begin to relax. That would put us 3 points behind Fulham with five to play, so if as you say "they're playing very well", on that basis we must be too I think you're mad if you honestly think 35 will be enough. 2 months ago I'd have agreed. But even Wigan and Sunderland are already on 31. I think the full 40 may well be needed. Certainly more than 35 anyway. If we get to 38 points I'd say we have a good chance. If we break the magic 40 we'll stay up for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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