Jump to content

Relegation


Amo69

The Drop  

609 members have voted

  1. 1. Will Villa Go Down?

    • Yes
      238
    • No
      283
    • Unsure
      88


Recommended Posts

I'm not one for overdramatising games but the QPR and Reading games are the biggest back to back games in the clubs history.

Do you know what I may be inclined to sympathise with that point of view

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Next 3 games are massive now. We have had a fantastic weekend and if, somehow, we can get at least a point tonight we will be in a great position to push on and hopefully get at least 4 points from the Reading (a) and QPR (h) games that follow.

 

Anything less than 3 points from our next 3 games would be a disaster.

Was watching a program we have on TV here called "Premier League Review" and apparently out of the last 23 games that we have played in the month of March we have only won 2.

 

that was mainly down to our manager from 06-10. am sure we even won a game in March last season under Eck

Can't quite get those figures to work (although they are more or less accurate) but poor performance in March has actually been a problem since the days of GT Mk2. If you count in cup matches (can't see why you wouldn't) the record is as follows:

 

GT Mk2

pl8 w1 d2 l5

 

DOL
pl10 w4 d1 l5
 
MON
pl18 w2 d8 l8
 
Foolier
Pl3 w0 d0 l3
 
Eck
Pl4 w1 d1 l2
 
I see no basis for saying this odd and embarrassing record is "mainly down to our manager from 06-10" apart from the obvious and rather uninteresting (statistically, that is) fact that he managed us for the largest single number of matches during the time. I hardly think any manager has covered themselves with glory in matches in March since 2002. DOL probably did best but I guess we don't want him back on that basis.
 
One thing is for sure: if Lambert doesn't buck this trend in March 2013 and get us to beat Reading and QPR, we will be in very very serious trouble.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

after some research we won 1 league game in 17 in March under MON as thats what Puss E Katt was referring to. it was pathetic

 

his other victory was a cup win vs a 2nd division team

Link to comment
Share on other sites

after some research we won 1 league game in 17 in March under MON as thats what Puss E Katt was referring to. it was pathetic

 

his other victory was a cup win vs a 2nd division team

That's clearly not what PussEKat was referring to since his figures were 2 wins in 23 matches.  :P

 

He was referring to a stat that I think was first put out by the Opta Twitter feed, which reflected on our performance in March since R Lerner took over. My figures showed the March nightmare goes back a bit further than that and started with GTMk2.

 

We've been pathetic in March since 2002. It's a bizarre record that I would rather we didn't have. The difference is that some managers have achieved better results for the rest of the season and got us to positions like 6th, while others, such as Eck, whom you praised for achieving one win in March, managed 16th. I guess it's a question of whether you judge a manager by what he achieves whole season or just in March.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

after some research we won 1 league game in 17 in March under MON as thats what Puss E Katt was referring to. it was pathetic

 

his other victory was a cup win vs a 2nd division team

Yeah but it's O'Neill so we're not allowed to criticise such a dismal record.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest Monte Carlo simulation (n=10,000)

QPR: 4% stay up, 8% 18th, 19% 19th, 70% 20th

Wigan: 38% stay up, 26% 18th, 25% 19th, 11% 20th

Villa: 40% stay up, 23% 18th, 27% 19th, 10% 20th

Reading: 43% stay up, 26% 18th, 23% 19th, 8% 20th

Southampton: 79% stay up, 14% 18th, 6% 19th, 1% 20th

Sunderland: 98% stay up, 1% 18th

Norwich 99% stay up, 1% 18th

Newcastle: 99% stay up, 1% 18th

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We need a minimum of 4 points from the next two. 6 would put us in a decent postion. Southampton are definitely in this with us as well. If they get a couple more dodgy results then appointing a manager who can't speak English will seem and increasingly strange decision.

 

Gosh it's tense.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In spite of results not going our way we're considerably better than we were a couple of months ago I think. I look at our run in now and except for Man Utd (A) there's points for us in every fixture. If we cut out the silly mistakes and stay composed we can definitely do this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yup that was our chance to take a little pressure off the next two & very unsurprisingly we missed it.. Now we cannot lose & have to win at least one against either Reading or QPR or else that's it for me... Draw both & we will have to beat either Chelsea, Man U or Liverpool to regain the lost ground which i think we all know ain't gonna happen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think had we gotten a point out of tonight's match, we'd run the risk of the players not playing with the required urgency against Reading and QPR. That's the best way to look at the loss tonight, methinks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Surprised by so much optimism. For me the season was over after the club surrendered in January during the transfer window. Our spine was broken by the three terrible games of December. We have never recovered. No amount of "must win" games is going to change that. This team cannot recover because it does not have the players to recover.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The difference today was a Tevez clearance and a Clark blunder. Subtract those two pieces of play, and Villa win 1-0. The team showed good spirit tonight, and if they turn up with similar spirit against our relegation rivals, we should manage to stay up.

Edited by maqroll
Link to comment
Share on other sites

At least it wasn't 8

Agreed. After Wigan's big margin of defeat this weekend, we've narrowed the goal difference gap by 3. I really hope Wigan keep reeling.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Like a few others have said, absolutely nothing has changed since the win over WHU. A point from either would have been great, but you had to expect nothing. And tbh, the performances in the past couple of matches have been decent. If we can keep playing at this level I truly think we can at least win 4 of the remaining 10 which would keep us up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...
Â