Everton

[chrissmith921]

Except a team that's in a relegation battle won't miraculously make a come back and be in contention for 4th place... it's just not gonna happen. The only reason they caught us level on points (but had better GD) last season was because we didn't win a game for 2 months whilst they went on a very good run - no way can the same thing happen this season and I can't see them finishing close to either Tottenham or Citeh... even if Spurs do implode.

Like I said, considering the awful start they've had this season (although getting good results against us, Spurs and Chelsea) I think they'll do well to finish in the top half, but if they don't sort themselves out very soon they'll have more concerning things to think about rather than catching us in the league.

I'm not being bias, and I do acknowledge anything can happen, but I'm just looking at it from a realistic point of view and unless we self-distruct going two months without a win whilst Everton go on a winning romp at the same time, I just can't see them getting close to us.

Everton are more of a threat to us this year than Small Heath.

You even said yourself Everton will finish above them - thats exactly what I mean. Everton are a better side, but not as on form. Birmingham will slide in the coming weeks/months but if they take points off sides who can rival us with a few wins back-to-back (especially over the xmas period) then all is good.

Over 38 games Birmingham are not a threat - theyre on form now and the table shows that. End of the year they'll be 12th-14th, which as a newly promoted side with their off-field turmoil, is a good finish.

Everton will be in the 6-8 bracket, which we will be if we experience a poor run of form (certainly not ruling that out).

Hence why, more points they lose now, the better for us in the long term look over the course of the season, especially if they lose them to sides who wont be within touching distance of us come Easter.

[LondonLax]

Birmingham could spend some money in Jan to support their squad. I could see them finish as high as 10th.

[chrissmith921]

Still, we wont be outside the top 8. Even with their highest finish, coupled with our lowest (likely, of course!) we'll still finish above them.

Everton - that simply aint the case.

Their team, and squad, as shown recently despite injuries.... is good enough to tussle up around the top 4 in the same way as we are. Dont rule them out.

[kurtsimonw]

Meh, write Everton off if you like, it's certainly not a smart thing to do. They had a shocking start last season and seemed to do quite well. I also wouldn't say we're immune to collapsing again. Don't get carried away in thinking we're much better than other teams. We're not Spurs fans.

[Qwpzxjor1]

Birmingham could spend some money in Jan to support their squad. I could see them finish as high as 10th.

Their last 7 games have been draws with Man City and Liverpool (which we should be very thankful for) and then wins against Fulham, Wolves, Wigan, West Ham and Blackburn. Certainly not the hardest run of games, but their next 4 are Everton, Chelsea, Stoke and Man Utd... Be interesting to see what they can get out of these games..

If they want to claim they are 'European contenders' I don't think we can laugh at them or believe them until we see where they are after these games. After Man Utd they then go away to Portsmouth, before playing Spurs and Chelsea again.

They certainly could slide right back down again, but I certainly don't think we can question that they deserve their current league position.

Edit: Just noticed this is the Everton thread, not the Blues one..

So come on you Toffee's! Smash these **** at the weekend please. Thanks

[Vojskovoda]

Hey Chris... I know in the long-term Everton will be more of a 'threat' to us than small heath, but it depends how far you stretch the word 'threat'. Like me and you say, I do think Everton will come good eventually this season and will overtake small heath but like I said, will Everton be more of a threat only if they finish a few points ahead of small heath at the end of the season? Only because they finish above small heath doesn't really make them a threat to us if we're still in and around the mix come April time whilst they're dwindling around mid-table.

Right now, saying "don't write Everton off now" is the equivalent to saying "don't write off Liverpool winning the league now". Bottom line is Liverpool won't win the league because they're too far behind, are not being consistent and they're severely lacking confidence etc... It's exactly the same with Everton except they're down at the bottom, which is even more difficult for them so saying they'll be a threat to us for 4th place is just a bizarre frankly.

[kurtsimonw]

I don't know if anyone (BOF, basically) can find out the biggest gap between ourselves and Everton in terms of points last season? I wouldn't be surprised if we had a lead somewhat similar to the one we have now to be honest.

[chrissmith921]

Right now, saying "don't write Everton off now" is the equivalent to saying "don't write off Liverpool winning the league now".

I disagree - teams in 5th-8th will drop a lot more points between now and the end of the season than 1st will.

In fact, I'd guess whoever wins the league will drop half the amount of points we do between now and then at the very most.

Clearly Liverpool are a lot further off winning the league than Everton are off challenging the top 4.

If Everton string together 8-10 results (not all wins, but say 25 points over 10 games which is doable) they will close right in on those top 6 places.

Everton are a threat to us because they have the ability to improve and really get some results - there arent many teams who you can say that about - Spurs - probably at their peak - argue the same about us - Man City could improve as could both Merseyside teams.

Yes Everton have a larger gap to close - but they did last year too.... we were 10 clear of Arsenal at one point last year and even more of Everton, yet they did it.

[Vojskovoda]

That's a fair point Kurt, but can you honestly see us making that disastrous mistake we made last season again this season? That's what it took for Everton to get near us last season... if they're to get near us again this season, it's going to take another 2-month **** up by us.

[kurtsimonw]

That's a fair point Kurt, but can you honestly see us making that disastrous mistake we made last season again this season? That's what it took for Everton to get near us last season... if they're to get near us again this season, it's going to take another 2-month **** up by us.

I see it differently to be honest. I don't think we "**** up". We had a run of games which included Chelsea, Stoke, United, Liverpool, Everton, City and Spurs.. I hardly think going down to teams like this is **** up. I think we're capable of dropping points to these same teams this season, just obviously not in 1 big run, more spread out. I believe after this run, we had 6 games left, of which we lost only 1.

So I think Everton are more than capable of catching us personally. I'm not writing them off. It's a silly thing to do and there's really no need to.

[Qwpzxjor1]

Bottom line is Liverpool won't win the league because they're too far behind, are not being consistent and they're severely lacking confidence etc... It's exactly the same with Everton

I wouldn't say Everton aren't being inconsistent and aren't lacking confidence.. they have half their team out injured and are still picking up precious points.

[PauloBarnesi]

Liverpool have developed a new consistency; losing and being average and a manager constantly declaring the season starts now. Sadly I can’t seeing them continuing this form. Something must turn for them. With Everton I expect what they always do; they will start to get results and move up the table.

[Artetasgirl]

According to South American press, and the lad himself, we signing some 17yr old kid from Bolivia called Samuel Galindo. Fook knows how we gettin a work permit for him.

[NabilH]

i really respect everton. haha, i remember 2007/2008 season was it when we won 2-0, Gabby, Carew.

I WAS IN THE EVERTON STAND AT VILLAPARK AND WAS CHANTING SHIT ON EVERTON, SHIT ON EVERTON, i was only 15 but the looks i got........hahaha priceless.

[Wainy316]

[kurtsimonw]

Riiiiiiight.

[Qwpzxjor1]

Thanks for that NabiH, I believe this thread can be closed now you've answered everything we needed to know about Everton.

On a similar note, did I mention I once looked at a hedge?

[leviramsey]

My database goes by gameweeks (since it's adapted from an NFL database I keep), with the week beginning on Tuesday and periods without league football skipped in the numbering.

Week #1: Villa win (3 pts), Everton lose (0 pts) => Gap=3

Week #2: Villa lose (3 pts), Everton win (3 pts) => Gap=0

Week #3: Villa draw (4 pts), Everton lose (3 pts) => Gap=1

Week #4: Villa win (7 pts), Everton win (6 pts) => Gap=1

Week #5: Villa win (10 pts), Everton draw (7 pts) => Gap=3

Week #6: Villa win (13 pts), Everton lose (7 pts) => Gap=6

Week #7: Villa lose (13 pts), Everton draw (8 pts) => Gap=5

Week #8: Villa draw (14 pts), Everton lose (8 pts) => Gap=6

Week #9: Villa win (17 pts), Everton draw (9 pts) => Gap=8

Week #10: Villa win and lose (20 pts), Everton win twice (15 pts) => Gap=5

Week #11: Villa lose (20 pts), Everton win (18 pts) => Gap=2

Week #12: Villa win (23 pts), Everton draw (19 pts) => Gap=4

Week #13: Villa draw (24 pts), Everton lose (19 pts) => Gap=5

Week #14: Villa draw (25 pts), Everton win (22 pts) => Gap=3

Week #15: Villa win (28 pts), Everton lose (22 pts) => Gap=6

Week #16: Villa win (31 pts), Everton win (25 pts) => Gap=6

Week #17: Villa win (34 pts), Everton draw (26 pts) => Gap=8

Week #18: Villa draw and win (38 pts), Everton win twice (32 pts) => Gap=6

Week #19: Villa win (41 pts), Everton win (35 pts) => Gap=6

Week #21: Villa win (44 pts), Everton draw (36 pts) => Gap=8

Week #22: Villa win and draw (48 pts), Everton draw and lose (37 pts) => Gap=11

Week #23: Villa win (51 pts), Everton win (40 pts), Gap=11

Week #25: Villa lose (51 pts), Everton draw (41 pts), Gap=10

Week #26: Villa draw (52 pts), Everton win (44 pts), Gap=8

Week #27: Villa lose (52 pts), Everton draw (45 pts), Gap=7

Week #28: Villa lose (52 pts), Everton win (48 pts), Gap=4

Week #29: Villa lose (52 pts), Everton lose (48 pts), Gap=4

Week #30: Villa lose (52 pts), Everton win (51 pts), Gap=1

Week #31: Villa draw (53 pts), Everton draw (52 pts), Gap=1

Week #32: Villa draw (54 pts), Everton inactive (52 pts), Gap=2 (Everton GIH)

Week #33: Villa inactive (54 pts), Everton draw (53 pts), Gap=1

Week #34: Villa draw (55 pts), Everton lose (53 pts), Gap=2

Week #35: Villa win (58 pts), Everton win (56 pts), Gap=2

Week #36: Villa lose (58 pts), Everton draw (57 pts), Gap=1

Week #37: Villa draw (59 pts), Everton win (60 pts), Gap=-1

Week #38: Villa win (62 pts), Everton win (63 pts), Gap=-1

The biggest gap was 11 points.

[kurtsimonw]

Thanks Levi, much appreciated.

So the biggest gap was 11 points, they finished above us by a point so that brings it up to 12. Currently they're 15 points behind, but with a game in hand (Against Stoke?). So if they were to win that, it could very well be a 12 point gap, the same amount of points they ultimately recovered on us last season. So it's certainly not out of the question that they could catch us, especially with over 20 games to go. (Though I do personally think we'll finish above them).

[leviramsey]

OTOH, the gap over Everton maxed out about 2 months further into the season, so they were doing a better job of keeping pace with us last year... it's going to be much more of an improvement in form required to catch us this year.