End of the American Era?

[ender4]

Empires rise & fall...

The original Chinese empire, the Ottaman empire, the Persian empire, the Greek era, the Romans, the British empire, and finally the American era over the past 100 years or so.

Is the American way of life now coming to an end?

Is it going to be a Chinese future for us all?

Is that good or bad for us in the western world?

[mjmooney]

Too soon to say.

[The_Rev]

Every era ends. I think the Yanks have got a while remaining as the dominant superpower, their sphere of influence over the western world is very strong. The American era hasnt been that long either really, certainly nowhere near a hundred years. You could argue the USA was little more than a regional power at around the time of the first world war. They were one of two superpowers at the end of the second world war, but it wasnt really until the end of the Cold War and breakup of the Soviet Union about twenty years ago that they have been top dogs.

They certainly wont be as dominant at the end of the 21st century as they were at the start of it but barring a completely unexpected (and highly unlikely) world war, we wont all be speaking Mandarin or Urdu just yet.

[chrisp65]

Not whilst the Chinese et al aspire to be mini Americans.

The driving force in China at the moment is not a desire to teach the world about co-operative farming or fabricating wheat yield statistics. It is a desire to have a nicer house, a funky phone and dvd’s of the Lethal Weapon franchise. As such, even though your tv says ‘made in China’ on the back, it is still showing ‘Britains Got Funny Mental Patients’. You could possibly argue that the USA has won the cold war. OK so China owns all our debt and could foreclose. But they appear more interested in joining in the race to achieve peak oil and acquire pointless crap they hadn’t even realised they needed until they saw it advertised. As such, the funky phone bling, pop music videos and desire to get Olympic excellence over universal well being suggests the American era is going from strength to strength.

It’s just got a new funny accent.

[RunRickyRun]

This is worth a read regarding the future for China

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

I'll bring an end to it.

Muahahahahahha

[OutByEaster?]

Is the world getting too small for countries to have eras?

I think the American empire will be replaced with the Tescos empire.

[TheSufferingVilla]

The End. I give society as we know it ten years. Hostilities will begin in Europe, specifically France before spreading to the Netherlands and Britain. With year upon year of unemployment on the rise and no sign of recovery the natives will begin to turn on immigrant groups and the descendants of immigrant groups the rioting will be bloody and relentless, borders will be closed and vast numbers of people will be profiled and deported based on race. Meanwhile in America a large section of the population will have turned militant against the Hispanic, Asian and African American communities. Domestic terrorists will be on the rampage destroying government property and killing anyone they perceive as threatening their freedom. In both the US and Europe Governments in a knee jerk reaction will attempt to exert a tighter control over the population intensifying the unrest. Trade between the East and the West will effectively come to a standstill causing massive damage to the economies of both China and India who will start calling in the loans and debt owed to them from the West. Without the resources to meet demand from the East international hostilities grow fueled by Russia doing it's best to take advantage of the situation. The Middle East erupts into a state of war quickly followed by India and Pakistan. Soon it is realized that Russia and China have signed a pact to take control of much of Europe and North America and the conflict escalates to levels never imagined before ending as quickly as it began under the relentless barrage of nuclear explosions. 15 years pass the World is mostly silent billions are dead and nature where it can is beginning to reclaim what mankind had done its best to destroy. Aston Villa become champions of the newly reformed Football League beating New Preston 2-0 in the final game of the season. The Beginning.

[bickster]

I think the American empire will be replaced with the Tescos empire.

Nah Internationally Walmart will kick their ass

[maqroll]

The End. I give society as we know it ten years. Hostilities will begin in Europe, specifically France before spreading to the Netherlands and Britain. With year upon year of unemployment on the rise and no sign of recovery the natives will begin to turn on immigrant groups and the descendants of immigrant groups the rioting will be bloody and relentless, borders will be closed and vast numbers of people will be profiled and deported based on race. Meanwhile in America a large section of the population will have turned militant against the Hispanic, Asian and African American communities. Domestic terrorists will be on the rampage destroying government property and killing anyone they perceive as threatening their freedom. In both the US and Europe Governments in a knee jerk reaction will attempt to exert a tighter control over the population intensifying the unrest. Trade between the East and the West will effectively come to a standstill causing massive damage to the economies of both China and India who will start calling in the loans and debt owed to them from the West. Without the resources to meet demand from the East international hostilities grow fueled by Russia doing it's best to take advantage of the situation. The Middle East erupts into a state of war quickly followed by India and Pakistan. Soon it is realized that Russia and China have signed a pact to take control of much of Europe and North America and the conflict escalates to levels never imagined before ending as quickly as it began under the relentless barrage of nuclear explosions. 15 years pass the World is mostly silent billions are dead and nature where it can is beginning to reclaim what mankind had done its best to destroy. Aston Villa become champions of the newly reformed Football League beating New Preston 2-0 in the final game of the season. The Beginning.

Sounds like a decent film, tbh....

[leviramsey]

I think the American empire will be replaced with the Tescos empire.

Nah Internationally Walmart will kick their ass

Tesco has generally pwned Wal-Mart wherever they've done battle (though I haven't heard anything about the "Fresh & Easy" stores in SoCal lately).

As for the thesis, China will never achieve full superpower status. Within a couple of decades, China will have an older population than the USA, and combined with their general disinterest in naval or air power they're not going to be a major military power anytime soon. Compare China to Japan 20-25 years ago (when the Nikkei was on its way to 38k) and there are a lot of parallels.

India is more interesting, but even then, the case isn't that clear-cut. Even then, it more than likely will be similar to the handoff of western power from the British empire to the USA, one more or less capitalist democracy with a legal system based on English common law handing power gradually to another more or less capitalist democracy with a legal system based on English common law.

In the second half of this century, the USA will be the third country to pass a billion people (it may even have more people than China in 2100), and it will be the only one that did it while properly feeding the vast majority of them. Indeed, as long as the USA is the Saudi Arabia of food it will retain a substantial amount of power in the world.

[OutByEaster?]

In the second half of this century, the USA will be the third country to pass a billion people (it may even have more people than China in 2100).

How so, I thought US population was pretty steady at around 300,000,000, what's going to make it triple?

[MrWeedMcGrass]

In the second half of this century, the USA will be the third country to pass a billion people (it may even have more people than China in 2100).

How so, I thought US population was pretty steady at around 300,000,000, what's going to make it triple?

Mehico 8)

[maqroll]

I think the American empire will be replaced with the Tescos empire.

Nah Internationally Walmart will kick their ass

Tesco has generally pwned Wal-Mart wherever they've done battle (though I haven't heard anything about the "Fresh & Easy" stores in SoCal lately).

As for the thesis, China will never achieve full superpower status. Within a couple of decades, China will have an older population than the USA, and combined with their general disinterest in naval or air power they're not going to be a major military power anytime soon. Compare China to Japan 20-25 years ago (when the Nikkei was on its way to 38k) and there are a lot of parallels.

India is more interesting, but even then, the case isn't that clear-cut. Even then, it more than likely will be similar to the handoff of western power from the British empire to the USA, one more or less capitalist democracy with a legal system based on English common law handing power gradually to another more or less capitalist democracy with a legal system based on English common law.

In the second half of this century, the USA will be the third country to pass a billion people (it may even have more people than China in 2100), and it will be the only one that did it while properly feeding the vast majority of them. Indeed, as long as the USA is the Saudi Arabia of food it will retain a substantial amount of power in the world.

China has naval fleets parked in the Indian Ocean, and they're buying up Africa quicker than Cecil Rhodes could have dreamed.

[leviramsey]

China has naval fleets parked in the Indian Ocean, and they're buying up Africa quicker than Cecil Rhodes could have dreamed.

They still aren't really interested in anything beyond being a regional naval power.

[maqroll]

China has naval fleets parked in the Indian Ocean, and they're buying up Africa quicker than Cecil Rhodes could have dreamed.

They still aren't really interested in anything beyond being a regional naval power.

So were the Japanese at one point :winkold:

[leviramsey]

China has naval fleets parked in the Indian Ocean, and they're buying up Africa quicker than Cecil Rhodes could have dreamed.

They still aren't really interested in anything beyond being a regional naval power.

So were the Japanese at one point :winkold:

But in 20-30 years, the Chinese aren't going to have a large enough/young enough population to support being a military superpower (the USA will probably have a greater population under 30 by that point), unless the Chinese suddenly become more open to immigration, which is a major cultural shift... when you're greatest engineering achievement is a wall to keep outsiders out, it says something.

[maqroll]

China has naval fleets parked in the Indian Ocean, and they're buying up Africa quicker than Cecil Rhodes could have dreamed.

They still aren't really interested in anything beyond being a regional naval power.

So were the Japanese at one point :winkold:

But in 20-30 years, the Chinese aren't going to have a large enough/young enough population to support being a military superpower (the USA will probably have a greater population under 30 by that point), unless the Chinese suddenly become more open to immigration, which is a major cultural shift... when you're greatest engineering achievement is a wall to keep outsiders out, it says something.

They could just annex N. Korea

Which is actually fathomable...

[CVByrne]

American empire? I'd have called it era of American influence as they hardly had an Empire now did they. Also their strong influence is only post World War 2 which is 65 year, so that nowhere near 100's or so.

[Ads]

I cannot see Anglo-Saxon cultural dominance receding any time in the next couple hundred years. While the American MIC is far, far more powerful than anything the planet has ever seen. It would take the Chinese a significant amount of time to even attempt to overturn the imbalance, if it is indeed possible at all to do so.