End of the American Era?

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China has naval fleets parked in the Indian Ocean

Ha ha!

China does not have a true blue water navy and has no naval power projection of any quality. An old Russian hand me down carrier does not a fleet make. If you want to know what a fleet is, then take a look at the US 7th Fleet in Yokosuka, nicely placed to give the Chinese one hell of a problem should they wish to take Taiwan by force.

[maqroll]

Ha Ha!

They've got one of the largest naval forces in the world, and if they didn't actually have a fleet of ships off Africa at one point, they had many. Haha.

[maqroll]

I cannot see Anglo-Saxon cultural dominance receding any time in the next couple hundred years. While the American MIC is far, far more powerful than anything the planet has ever seen. It would take the Chinese a significant amount of time to even attempt to overturn the imbalance, if it is indeed possible at all to do so.

It's recession has already begun. It started with the slow disintegration of the British Empire, and continues with the slow decline of American power.

[Awol]

Ha Ha!

They've got one of the largest naval forces in the world, and if they didn't actually have a fleet of ships off Africa at one point, they had many. Haha.

They also have the biggest airforce and are going hell for leather building a true blue water fleet. Like the US now and the British before them, China know that their own economic security can only be guaranteed through naval power projection across the global trade arteries.

I read that the Chinese economy is on course to become the largest in the world by 2030(ish) but the people who should be scared of them are the Russians - who incidentally are sitting on a demographic timebomb. Siberia will look like a very juicy target from Beijing's perspective when they start running a little low on natural resources.

[The_Rev]

In the second half of this century, the USA will be the third country to pass a billion people (it may even have more people than China in 2100).

How so, I thought US population was pretty steady at around 300,000,000, what's going to make it triple?

Pretty steady? Whatever gave you that idea? The population of the USA was about 280m at their last census in 2000, it was about 250m in 1990 (dunno if you remember the episode of the Simpsons with George Bush sr in it, but he makes specific reference to the fact that he has "250 million bosses" when they are playing the sickly sweet patriotic card) and the population at the moment is about 310m. The population of the States is increasing by about 30m a decade and that increase will only get bigger as the years go by.

[OutByEaster?]

In the second half of this century, the USA will be the third country to pass a billion people (it may even have more people than China in 2100).

How so, I thought US population was pretty steady at around 300,000,000, what's going to make it triple?

Pretty steady? Whatever gave you that idea? The population of the USA was about 280m at their last census in 2000, it was about 250m in 1990 (dunno if you remember the episode of the Simpsons with George Bush sr in it, but he makes specific reference to the fact that he has "250 million bosses" when they are playing the sickly sweet patriotic card) and the population at the moment is about 310m. The population of the States is increasing by about 30m a decade and that increase will only get bigger as the years go by.

I hadn't realised it was such a grower, I thought immigration was pretty strictly controlled. There's plenty of room though, it's a country with some amazing geography.

China is incredible. I remember a couple of years back reading that more than one quarter of all of the concrete ever produced in history was at that moment being used in Chinese construction. Their Cities are unbelievable and the engineering projects they're carrying out are on an unprecedented scale.

Incidentally, is it still true that Disney have the fifth biggest Navy in the world?

[maqroll]

In the second half of this century, the USA will be the third country to pass a billion people (it may even have more people than China in 2100).

How so, I thought US population was pretty steady at around 300,000,000, what's going to make it triple?

Pretty steady? Whatever gave you that idea? The population of the USA was about 280m at their last census in 2000, it was about 250m in 1990 (dunno if you remember the episode of the Simpsons with George Bush sr in it, but he makes specific reference to the fact that he has "250 million bosses" when they are playing the sickly sweet patriotic card) and the population at the moment is about 310m. The population of the States is increasing by about 30m a decade and that increase will only get bigger as the years go by.

I hadn't realised it was such a grower, I thought immigration was pretty strictly controlled. There's plenty of room though, it's a country with some amazing geography.

China is incredible. I remember a couple of years back reading that more than one quarter of all of the concrete ever produced in history was at that moment being used in Chinese construction. Their Cities are unbelievable and the engineering projects they're carrying out are on an unprecedented scale.

Incidentally, is it still true that Disney have the fifth biggest Navy in the world?

I can't help but think many of these projects will end in literal collapse due to shoddy workmanship, cheap materials and little regulation/corruption in that sector.

[leviramsey]

I read that the Chinese economy is on course to become the largest in the world by 2030(ish) but the people who should be scared of them are the Russians - who incidentally are sitting on a demographic timebomb. Siberia will look like a very juicy target from Beijing's perspective when they start running a little low on natural resources.

The Chinese are sitting on a demographic timebomb as well... one child per family and (as with most of the east asian cultures for the past few decades) not much in the way of girls being born. Among under-20s, which is the age group that will be putting out young-uns for the next couple of decades, there's 3-ish boys for every 2 girls (and there's no evidence in other figures of a large amount of girls whose existence isn't being reported due to the one-child rules). And that's for a comparatively small generation in a rapidly aging society to begin with. That level of gender imbalance is simply stunning, since reproductive capacity is far more limited by the number of females than the number of males (since a female is effectively limited to about 1 live birth per year... stillbirths/miscarriages/etc. and time between successive births and conceptions balances out multiple births). Now, if China was at all a society that exhibited openness to foreigners and immigration, that's solvable. They could also try to boost the population by taking over neighbors with younger populations, though Chinese views on racial superiority (there's a reason the name for the country translates as "The Middle Kingdom (between heaven and earth)") may make that a nonstarter. There's also the pesky fact that a large population of young men with little chance of ever getting any* isn't exactly the most stabilizing force on society, and given the tendency of women to prefer men with money and/or power, it raises the interesting possibility of major internal revolts in China over the next couple of decades.

*: there's a strong argument that the Arab world's tendency towards polygyny feeds extremism... I don't know about you, but if I'm able to come home at night to a lovely young lady with whom I'm getting my dick wet once or twice a week and maybe getting a blowjob or three a month, I'm not strapping on an explosive vest any time soon.

[leviramsey]

Nearly every argument in favor of China being the next superpower also applies to India, and India also has the added benefits of democracy/Rule of Law/capitalism and far less of a demographic time-bomb. In a war between China and India, China would probably win for now, but by the time US power declines to a level sufficient to not be able to wipe the floor with China, India will probably be able to beat China.

[maqroll]

I read that the Chinese economy is on course to become the largest in the world by 2030(ish) but the people who should be scared of them are the Russians - who incidentally are sitting on a demographic timebomb. Siberia will look like a very juicy target from Beijing's perspective when they start running a little low on natural resources.

The Chinese are sitting on a demographic timebomb as well... one child per family and (as with most of the east asian cultures for the past few decades) not much in the way of girls being born. Among under-20s, which is the age group that will be putting out young-uns for the next couple of decades, there's 3-ish boys for every 2 girls (and there's no evidence in other figures of a large amount of girls whose existence isn't being reported due to the one-child rules). And that's for a comparatively small generation in a rapidly aging society to begin with. That level of gender imbalance is simply stunning, since reproductive capacity is far more limited by the number of females than the number of males (since a female is effectively limited to about 1 live birth per year... stillbirths/miscarriages/etc. and time between successive births and conceptions balances out multiple births). Now, if China was at all a society that exhibited openness to foreigners and immigration, that's solvable. They could also try to boost the population by taking over neighbors with younger populations, though Chinese views on racial superiority (there's a reason the name for the country translates as "The Middle Kingdom (between heaven and earth)") may make that a nonstarter. There's also the pesky fact that a large population of young men with little chance of ever getting any* isn't exactly the most stabilizing force on society, and given the tendency of women to prefer men with money and/or power, it raises the interesting possibility of major internal revolts in China over the next couple of decades.

*: there's a strong argument that the Arab world's tendency towards polygyny feeds extremism... I don't know about you, but if I'm able to come home at night to a lovely young lady with whom I'm getting my dick wet once or twice a week and maybe getting a blowjob or three a month, I'm not strapping on an explosive vest any time soon.

Levi, how crude

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Ha Ha!

They've got one of the largest naval forces in the world, and if they didn't actually have a fleet of ships off Africa at one point, they had many. Haha.

I don’t think you understand the difference between hull numbers and capability. If you’re going to have a blue water navy, then it is because you want to project power via it. The only way to do that is by carriers, as many of them as you can get, with escorts and amphibious assault ships and so on. The Chinese lack this completely- they are unable to project power this way.

All their hulls combined don’t even provide a smidgeon of the force projection one US fleet has based in Japan. That’s just one fleet. The USN has 12 carriers. It’s one of the most powerful military forces the world has ever known and that is just one branch of the US MIC.

Right now the only way China can project power is via her nuclear deterrent, which is dwarfed by her neighbours and rivals. Sticking one (very nice looking I must admit) LPD off the coast of Africa isn’t the force empires are built from.

Chinese military thinking is still focussed on its army- which is still an infantry focused machine. To get nerdy about it, judging by their recent exercise, they displayed some shocking tactical errors with their armour. Tanks silhouetted and all sorts of fundamental floors that is a sharp way to get them scrapped by the enemy in no time. While their exercises seem to focus on the strange belief that they’ll always know where the enemy is and what he plans to do. Oh well.

Edit: just to give you a visual idea of what I was talking about above.

Mr Abrams says thanking you muchly. Boom!

Edit 2: just to give you a visual idea of what I was talking about above with regards to carriers. Here’s the Ruski hand-me-down Varyag in modification. Its roughly the same sort of carrier that we’re getting (only we’ll have two hulls) and is essentially a medium sized carrier at about 65k tons.

It wouldn't last five minutes up against the USN, but they're trying.

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I cannot see Anglo-Saxon cultural dominance receding any time in the next couple hundred years. While the American MIC is far, far more powerful than anything the planet has ever seen. It would take the Chinese a significant amount of time to even attempt to overturn the imbalance, if it is indeed possible at all to do so.

It's recession has already begun. It started with the slow disintegration of the British Empire, and continues with the slow decline of American power.

Tell that to Ronald McDonald. I hear they have a lovely branch in Bejing.

[legov]

I cannot see Anglo-Saxon cultural dominance receding any time in the next couple hundred years. While the American MIC is far, far more powerful than anything the planet has ever seen. It would take the Chinese a significant amount of time to even attempt to overturn the imbalance, if it is indeed possible at all to do so.

It's recession has already begun. It started with the slow disintegration of the British Empire, and continues with the slow decline of American power.

Tell that to Ronald McDonald. I hear they have a lovely branch in Bejing.

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You could eat your Big Mac while you settle down to watch the latest Hollywood blockbuster on STAR Chinese Movies.

[maqroll]

I cannot see Anglo-Saxon cultural dominance receding any time in the next couple hundred years. While the American MIC is far, far more powerful than anything the planet has ever seen. It would take the Chinese a significant amount of time to even attempt to overturn the imbalance, if it is indeed possible at all to do so.

It's recession has already begun. It started with the slow disintegration of the British Empire, and continues with the slow decline of American power.

Tell that to Ronald McDonald. I hear they have a lovely branch in Bejing.

I love a good branch

[maqroll]

They have a a navy that has begun, over the last few years, to exert itself upon the world stage, sailing to east Africa to protect its interests....it's only a matter of time before they have the biggest and best navy in the world.

[leviramsey]

They have a a navy that has begun, over the last few years, to exert itself upon the world stage, sailing to east Africa to protect its interests....it's only a matter of time before they have the biggest and best navy in the world.

They're 50-60 years behind the USN technologically. They've got about 20 years before the window closes.

[OutByEaster?]

Surely they can't be 50-60 years behind, that would give them technology from the 50's?

[Awol]

there's a strong argument that the Arab world's tendency towards polygyny feeds extremism...

One wife drives me mad sometimes, if you've got four of them then suicide would be a blessed release.

I don't know about you, but if I'm able to come home at night to a lovely young lady with whom I'm getting my dick wet once or twice a week and maybe getting a blowjob or three a month, I'm not strapping on an explosive vest any time soon.

You'd think so, but if you look at the terrorists from Britain who've tried to off themselves in suicide attacks many of them had young families.

Nearly every argument in favor of China being the next superpower also applies to India, and India also has the added benefits of democracy/Rule of Law/capitalism and far less of a demographic time-bomb. In a war between China and India, China would probably win for now, but by the time US power declines to a level sufficient to not be able to wipe the floor with China, India will probably be able to beat China.

Absolutely and man for man I think the Indian military are already far more capable than the Chinese by virtue of their frequent spats with Pakistan, whereas the Chinese haven't has a serious rumble since Korea. India is another country currently buying up carriers, escorts and SSN's to give them true blue water capability, fortunately their assets will be joining the ORBAT of the free world.

I certainly don't buy into the decline of Pax America theory though, Obama and friends might not serious advocates of hard power but that's an abberation in US policy, not a trend. Add to that the vast technological gap and the USN will maintain full spectrum dominance over the East for the foreseeable.

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They have a a navy that has begun, over the last few years, to exert itself upon the world stage, sailing to east Africa to protect its interests....it's only a matter of time before they have the biggest and best navy in the world.

As I say, you don’t quite understand what you’re talking about.

Edit: Awol latest I read on the Indian sub programme was that they were ordering diesel subs for nuclear prices. But I agree that there is a lot of room for growth there and with indigenous design too. For all the Chinese industrial power, all their major weapon systems are Russian clones.