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January Transfer Window 2024


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8 minutes ago, Shaun Teales Moustache said:

Anyone know the actual details about signing youth players and FFP?

I tried briefly to look it up, but the details were a bit nebulous. Seemed like if you sign an u-21 player and they go into your academy rather than straight into the first team, they don't impact FFP, but there were some caveats to that as well. Basically though, whatever we spent on the young Serb mighn't count against FFP, which might explain a big outlay if we are tight for FFP. Anyone actually know though? If not, someone get Chris Purslow on the case!

Other thing I read was that wages were a bigger issue for FFP than transfer fees for us right now, as the wage bill has ballooned relative to a fairly moderate net spend. Dendonker, Chambers, Olsen, Traore, are all on big money without contributing equivocally. We couldn't have signed Pau, Tielemans or Diaby without offering them a massive pay increase. Lenglet and Zaniolo were not planned, but are on big money, replacing injured players already on big money.

Emery wants 2 elevens, and doesn't want deadwood, but we currently have deadwood on big money and can't afford to replace them all with big money signing due to FFP, so a couple of signings like the ones suggested might be necessary. 

The Middlesbrough guy seems a wierd target, but Finn Azaz was also a weird signing that went entirely against the grain of everything the club was doing at the time. He was older than most of the guys they were cutting from the academy, and they immediately sent him out on loan, so they didn't seem to want to train him up. I don't know if they ever thought he'd be good enough for the PL, but someone (probably from his West Brom days) obviously thought he was worth more than what he was at the time. So with the West Brom connection, I can only assume it's a similar deal with this guy. 

In regards ffp and our transfers plans I think you have hit the nail on the head. Higher earners that aren't really suited to the team's set up or aren't considered good enough for where we want to be are available for transfer.

Traore isn't likely to be sold this window, as his contract expires at the end of the season, but a loan could well suit all parties. Sanson is up for sale and on in region of 50k pw, so we need him gone. Dendonker is on around 80k but doesn't have the technical qualities we need in our DM's. Chambers is on good money, but simply not good enough, so he has to go. That lot is over 250k pw in wages. That's 2 high quality players wages they're taking up. Then there is Coutinho who is on over 120k pw who is also surplus to requirements. Another high quality player wage. Plus I forgot Hause, who is probably on about 40k pw.

Then there are cases like Digne who is very good, but also on high wages 125k pw and we have a player as good and experienced as he on half those wages. So it makes sense to find him a new club while he is still a saleable asset. 

Probably only Dendonker, and Digne would get a reasonable fee the rest will basically go for free, as some wage supplementation will probably be necessary to move the likes of Coutinho and Sanson on. Lucky they will only have a year left on their contracts at the end of the season. 20 mill for these sales at best really. But they free up over 400k pw from the wage bill, which is huge!

In regards to the youth team, the model we are going for is where our youth development is geared toward developing players good enough to be sold on to clubs at championship level and above. The youth team expediture is exempt from ffp, so if we can follow Chelsea's model of developing young player for sale, we can create more money for first team use. Since the Youth setup is exempt from ffp, the sale of the youth players appears as pure profit on the books, which can be used to offset transfer fees for senior players.

Finn Azzaz was probably seen as a player we could sign cheaply, that wouldn't count towards ffp, as he was signed as a youth player, whom we expected to be able to sell on for a fee. We spent 1mill on him apparently, he been on loan almost the whole (so his wages have been at least contributed to by the loaning clubs) and leaves for 2 Mill plus adds ons. That's 2mill profit on the books, and 1mill (minus wages) in actuality.

The ideal for the youth teams is to develop enough players good enough for the first team so that we can maintain at least 4 Villa produced players and selling the rest for pure profit. 4 of 25 squad places for European competition are reserved only for own club developed players. We only have JJ so, our European squad only has 22 players. Also all Villa trained players under 21 can play in Europe without being registered.

So in 3 and a half years when Kosta is 20 he will be considered as Villa trained, and can play in europe for us without being registered. I suspect Tim being kept with us this season is for him to qualify as Villa trained. I believe he is in Emery's plans.

A highly productive youth setup is essential to the success of our project. Both in football terms and in regards to profit and sustainability.

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32 minutes ago, K-Carlsen said:

Seems like Tottenham is getting him for a fee around €30M. A steal and such a shame it is not us. You will see him tear up in PL next year. Better than Oscar Bobb and two years younger. This kid is Odegaard-esque, just as a winger.

Yep. They are shopping at a different level . 

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43 minutes ago, K-Carlsen said:

Seems like Tottenham is getting him for a fee around €30M. A steal and such a shame it is not us. You will see him tear up in PL next year. Better than Oscar Bobb and two years younger. This kid is Odegaard-esque, just as a winger.

Didn't know Spurs were in for him, would have been great under Emery.

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16 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said:

Looks like we are basically doing what we all do on Football Manager.  I've confidence our scouts are identifying the right talent.

I understand what you're saying 😄 I am normally of that attitude, but im involved in Norwegian youth football - and this kid tho! I have seen this type of gem only a few times. I saw it in Haaland while he was still playing here. Odegaard was amazing at 15, yet I doubted him a little as I thought Spain might have 10 of these talents for our one, but he proved me very wrong. Bobb I have seen from the age of 12, he was always going to make it professionally - the question was just how high the level. Nusa - WOW! I am excited to see just how good this guy can get. I believe he can go to the very top.

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Really like our approach, especially given the focus on FFP atm. We are trying to replace the squad fillers who are on high wages with younger players who have decent ability already, might have a high ceiling and who will be on considerably lower wages. There's a clear strategy here. If this is what January windows look like for us now, then I'm here for it. Perhaps summer windows will be the time for bigger signings, given we'll know what competitions we'll be competing in the following year. 

It's classic Emery so far: while everyone is running around with their hair on fire, he's methodically working out the next steps, not panicking, understanding his process. 

 

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26 minutes ago, MWARLEY2 said:

Yep. They are shopping at a different level . 

Are they really?

Werner is crap and Dragusin and Nusa are complete unknowns

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29 minutes ago, MWARLEY2 said:

Yep. They are shopping at a different level . 

Are they, I’m not convinced. Werner? Ermm not great for the last few years and the others are just speculative like we look like we are doing

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Seems like our strategy this January window is just to sign a load of unknowns and no one for the first 11.

 

Hopefully we make up for it in the summer or we won’t continue to mix with the elite for long. 

Edited by Leeroy
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12 minutes ago, nick76 said:

Are they, I’m not convinced. Werner? Ermm not great for the last few years and the others are just speculative like we look like we are doing

But paying more for them

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Spurs are so **** lucky. Any other club loses their superstar, regardless of how much they get for him, they have a dud season of rebuilding etc. Like we had with Jack leaving

Spurs sell Kane and somehow get better, and now get to reinvest all that money on the future. It's one rule for words removed and another for the rest of us.

Edited by est1874
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Just now, est1874 said:

Spurs are so **** lucky. Any other club loses their superstar, regardless of how much they get for him, they have a dud season of rebuilding etc. Like we had with Jack leaving

Spurs sell Kane and somehow get better, and now get to reinvest all that money on the future. It's one rule for words removed and another for the rest of us.

Maybe because the 3 or 4 other times they did it they failed when selling Berbatov, Bale and others

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5 minutes ago, Leeroy said:

Seems like our strategy is just to sign a load of unknowns and no one for the first 11.

 

Hopefully we make up for it in the summer or we won’t continue to mix with the elite for long. 

Like Nusa and Dragusin that Spurs are signing?

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18 minutes ago, nick76 said:

Are they, I’m not convinced. Werner? Ermm not great for the last few years and the others are just speculative like we look like we are doing

Spurs have made great signings apparently until they don't work out... like all the Kane backup strikers over several seasons or Richarlison, Johnson, Sessegnon etc etc

Edited by Kiwivillan
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Apologies if it's been covered off but was there ever official confirmation that both Ramsey and Archer are back with us if they go down?

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3 minutes ago, Zatman said:

Like Nusa and Dragusin that Spurs are signing?

They have a higher ceiling than the players we are going for. And they signed Werner too.

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Just now, Leeroy said:

They have a higher ceiling than the players we are going for.

Do they?

1 minute ago, Leeroy said:

And they signed Werner too.

Can’t tell whether you are saying that as a positive or negative? 😉

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