ender4 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 30 minutes ago, villanmac said: Well it doesnt. You take those 3 games out for both clubs and then you compare the fixtures. Thats a good way to look at it. If we take out every team we still both need to play, plus each other, what are the 5-6 unique fixtures left for each team? And who has harder or easier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayEm Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 24 minutes ago, ender4 said: Thats a good way to look at it. If we take out every team we still both need to play, plus each other, what are the 5-6 unique fixtures left for each team? And who has harder or easier? Discounting 'same' fixtures: We have Brentford, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Brighton. They have Fulham, Forest, Newcastle, Burnley, and Sheffield United. They have slightly easier fixtures, especially as Burnley and Sheffield will probably be relegated by then. But Bournemouth, Chelsea, and maybe even Brighton could have little to play for when we get them too. Just don't know yet. They face City and Arsenal at home while we have them away, and they have to go to Anfield for what I assume is Klopp's penultimate, and title-chasing, game, while we have them at home the week after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rubberman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Wildcard factor is the potential/probable point deductions for Everton and Forest. That could put them right in the relegation mix with Burnley and Sheffield (lots of 6-pointers between those clubs in the last few weeks). Burnley and Sheffield might suddenly find they have an (unlikely) chance of survival by getting something from Spurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmygreaves Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Don't spurs need 2 wins more than us to overtake us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 8 minutes ago, jimmygreaves said: Don't spurs need 2 wins more than us to overtake us? Yep but ones a game in hand isn’t it? It’s important we don’t lose to them at Villa park to keep a gap. Win and 4th should be ours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 59 minutes ago, rubberman said: Wildcard factor is the potential/probable point deductions for Everton and Forest. That could put them right in the relegation mix with Burnley and Sheffield (lots of 6-pointers between those clubs in the last few weeks). Burnley and Sheffield might suddenly find they have an (unlikely) chance of survival by getting something from Spurs. I thought Everton’s has been reduced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Follyfoot Posted February 27 VT Supporter Share Posted February 27 7 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: I thought Everton’s has been reduced. It has, but now they’re on about another points, deduction potentially for another breach. I can’t keep up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PieFacE Posted February 27 VT Supporter Share Posted February 27 Win on Saturday then it's very very difficult to see a scenario where we don't finish at least 5th. And 4th is very much on too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSvillain Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Spurs just lost to wolves at home, trying to pick and choose ‘easy’ or ‘hard’ fixtures is nonsensical. Also the below chart as at 13th feb seems to indicate similar difficulty to spurs in terms of remaining fixtures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 3 hours ago, villanmac said: Well it doesnt. You take those 3 games out for both clubs and then you compare the fixtures. We've both got West Ham away (although ours is straight after the Europa second leg so you feel we'll put in a flat performance in one of the two games so rather we were full pelt v Spurs). Spurs have Fulham and Chelsea away still while we've won at both. On last day we go to Palace and they have Sheffield United away. Obviously we have the harder game there....however if Palace are safe then you feel we'll get what we need out of that game. One thing we have to be careful about is making sure we don't lose a game by a big score in the run in. Spurs still have Burnley and Luton at home and Sheffield United away so the decent GD lead we have over them could soon evaporate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSvillain Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Interesting thread on twitter for any data nerds. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Need to keep Barkley and Doughty quiet on Saturday. Such a big game in terms of putting pressure on the other teams 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post oishiiniku_uk Posted February 27 Popular Post Share Posted February 27 (edited) I'd not appreciated that we're five points better off than Newcastle were after the same number of games last season (and same points as Man Utd had in 3rd after 26 played). Impressive! Just need to keep as close to 2 ppg as we can until the end of the season. Edited February 27 by oishiiniku_uk 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrBlack Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 10 hours ago, oishiiniku_uk said: I'd not appreciated that we're five points better off than Newcastle were after the same number of games last season (and same points as Man Utd had in 3rd after 26 played). Impressive! Just need to keep as close to 2 ppg as we can until the end of the season. It's due to the number of really poor teams in the bottom half of the PL. Even the 7th-10rh place teams are underperforming relative to previous years. It's why we can't look at previous points totals to help guide our hopes. Look at the reality of the current table and the fixtures we and our opposition have. We should continue to play as we have done all season and, if we do, we'll stay top 4. A slight tail off and we're top 5. It needs a monumental drop to finish lower. Beat spurs at home and we're nearly there. Even if we don't beat Luton this weekend. The season has a long way to run and there'll be more twists in our race for top 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 On 27/02/2024 at 11:07, jayEm said: Guy on Claret and Blue podcast reckoned that if we beat Luton, and United lose to City, provided we just win 5 of our 11 remaining fixtures (a lower PPG than we've ever managed under Emery at 'just' 1.36) United need to win 9 out of 11 to overtake us. There's some ifs in there, but it helped put it in perspective. When it's put like that, I can't see how United will get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayEm Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 35 minutes ago, duke313 said: When it's put like that, I can't see how United will get that. The big 'if' is us beating Luton, City beating United, and then us winning five more. Basically from our last 12, if we win X games, United need to win X + 3 (ignoring draws / assuming we draw equally.) Once you factor in the most likely results this weekend, it becomes X + 4 from 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 20 hours ago, jayEm said: Discounting 'same' fixtures: We have Brentford, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Brighton. They have Fulham, Forest, Newcastle, Burnley, and Sheffield United. Hard to say who will get more points from that list. Feels like we need to be at least 4 points ahead of them heading into the last 2 games of the season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrBlack Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 14 minutes ago, ender4 said: Hard to say who will get more points from that list. Feels like we need to be at least 4 points ahead of them heading into the last 2 games of the season. Which if we beat them at home, we should be.... Luton seem to be a bit of an enigma at the moment, but we should beat them and they'll be tired after their efforts against Man City in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Think it’s a good thing that United won last night. They were crap but now have one more game to plan for. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted February 29 VT Supporter Share Posted February 29 On 26/02/2024 at 21:23, DCJonah said: I want champions league so much. We've almost certainly got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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