Sliding door moments

[VillaChris]

Wonder who'd be managing us now if we'd held on to beat Wolves 2-0 in October 2021?

 

[El-Reacho]

Wonder who’d be managing us now if Martin O’Neill had been offered the England job before he came to us in 2006?

[VillaChris]

2 minutes ago, El-Reacho said:

Wonder who’d be managing us now if Martin O’Neill had been offered the England job before he came to us in 2006?

Wasn't Jurgen Klinsmann rumoured when Lerner first took over before they were pulled in the direction of MON?

[mikeyp102]

Covid, before the fixtures got stopped, it looked like we were in serious trouble and I don’t think we’d have recovered. Going back down to championship, may have seen the owners leave and then god knows where we’d be. 

[Mantis]

1 minute ago, mikeyp102 said:

Covid, before the fixtures got stopped, it looked like we were in serious trouble and I don’t think we’d have recovered. Going back down to championship, may have seen the owners leave and then god knows where we’d be. 

That's sort of like a butterfly effect thing. If Covid really was an accidental lab leak (not entirely unplausible), then some random Chinese virologist in Wuhan could effectively be responsible for saving us from relegation.

[tomav84]

1 hour ago, Mantis said:

June 2020 - the infamous goal-line technology blunder. Of course we could well have fought back and got something from the game, although at the time it's worth remembering how fragile we were. If we'd lost that game, it does seem unlikely that we would've stayed up that season due to how close it ended up being. Relegation would've meant Grealish leaving a year earlier, and the project being set back years. No Martinez, no Emery etc.

this one i disagree with. sheff utd were poor and IMO we'd have come back anyway in the 2nd half if that goal stood (plus it feeds the narrative of rival fans that say we only stayed up because hawk eye failed). speaking more broadly, a massive sliding door moment was COVID. we'd have lost that chelsea game, smith would've been sacked (as reported in the media around that time), and god only knows who would've taken us over...but i don't think whomever would've come in would've saved us.

the leicester one is a really interesting one...do we get relegated if we win that game? and as a side note, do leicester win the league? a definite no on the latter IMO...

i actually think we've just had a sliding door moment. spurs losing and us winning a valuable point...if we make it to europe this season, we'll point to the weekend just gone as the moment it happened.

[Mantis]

Just now, tomav84 said:

this one i disagree with. sheff utd were poor and IMO we'd have come back anyway in the 2nd half if that goal stood (plus it feeds the narrative of rival fans that say we only stayed up because hawk eye failed). speaking more broadly, a massive sliding door moment was COVID. we'd have lost that chelsea game, smith would've been sacked (as reported in the media around that time), and god only knows who would've taken us over...but i don't think whomever would've come in would've saved us.

the leicester one is a really interesting one...do we get relegated if we win that game? and as a side note, do leicester win the league? a definite no on the latter IMO...

i actually think we've just had a sliding door moment. spurs losing and us winning a valuable point...if we make it to europe this season, we'll point to the weekend just gone as the moment it happened.

There were a lot of factors and I think rival fans massively overstate its significance but it's still a key moment for me, and one that really does rest on a single moment/matter of inches rather than say, an entire game.

[tomav84]

1 minute ago, Mantis said:

There were a lot of factors and I think rival fans massively overstate its significance but it's still a key moment for me, and one that really does rest on a single moment/matter of inches rather than say, an entire game.

i hear ya...i think a more apt moment in terms of inches IMO was the ball coming back off the inside of the post at 1-0 vs arsenal and into reina's hands

[HalfTimePost]

35 minutes ago, El-Reacho said:

If Levy hadn't tried to be so clever that summer we were in financial trouble he could've got Grealish for an absolute song. His own stingyness cost Spurs the opportunity to have Grealish up front with Kane and Son. We'd have never been promoted without Grealish that following season.

Great one. £3m and Josh Onomah... What was he thinking

[HalfTimePost]

January 22nd 2009 - 4th place, 3 points off of 1st.

What if we'd signed Radamel Falcao instead of Emile Heskey, who instead signed for Porto 6 months later scoring 41 goals in 51 apps.. I loved late-stage Heskey at Villa but his 9 goals in 92 apps isn't quite the same

[Tom13]

6 minutes ago, HalfTimePost said:

January 22nd 2009 - 4th place, 3 points off of 1st.

What if we'd signed Radamel Falcao instead of Emile Heskey, who instead signed for Porto 6 months later scoring 41 goals in 51 apps.. I loved late-stage Heskey at Villa but his 9 goals in 92 apps isn't quite the same

What a number 9 Falcao was! Whether we actually genuinely had the opportunity to get him is another thing though...

[ozvillafan]

Not signing Rashica

[Mark Albrighton]

35 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Wonder who'd be managing us now if we'd held on to beat Wolves 2-0 in October 2021?

 

My gut feeling is it would be Gerrard. Or maybe, it would be an interim manager in place following Gerrard’s recent sacking (in this alternative 2023). So Danks maybe.

I think if we don’t have those five defeats in a row, Smith isn’t sacked then, we stagger over the finish line in 15th. The club decides to say “Thanks for all your work, Dean” the day after the season finishes (a bit like they did with McLeish but with more affection). 

We then go down the Gerrard route as that seemingly was an itch that had to be scratched. The season follows suit. We probably have that little manger bounce he had when he was first appointed, it just takes place in this season, rather than last. It soon fades and we’re around 15th again.

[Mantis]

10 minutes ago, Mark Albrighton said:

My gut feeling is it would be Gerrard. Or maybe, it would be an interim manager in place following Gerrard’s recent sacking (in this alternative 2023). So Danks maybe.

I think if we don’t have those five defeats in a row, Smith isn’t sacked then, we stagger over the finish line in 15th. The club decides to say “Thanks for all your work, Dean” the day after the season finishes (a bit like they did with McLeish but with more affection). 

We then go down the Gerrard route as that seemingly was an itch that had to be scratched. The season follows suit. We probably have that little manger bounce he had when he was first appointed, it just takes place in this season, rather than last. It soon fades and we’re around 15th again.

But would Gerrard be available in this alternative timeline?

[wishywashy]

Heaton just ever so slightly landing awkwardly during a routine save and tearing his ACL led to Argentina winning the Copa America and World Cup

Edited May 23, 2023 by wishywashy

[ozvillafan]

Gareth Barry leaving.

You could argue it didn't do much, as we still finished 6th in 2010 but we had peaked under MON and the cracks were starting to show. Gareth went on to win the FA Cup with Man Citeh that season, followed by the League the next.

[HKP90]

It's the off season in 2000.

The year before we finished 6th in the league despite our strike force consisting of a tenacious but aging Dion Dublin, and a pacey, instinctive, but ultimately limited Julian Joachim.

It's time to step up and put the club where it should be. One of the top teams, forever and in perpetuity.

We turned to a player with international credibility. A player who scored 110 goals in 164 matches for PSV, who had played in the Champions League the previous season, and who had been capped 54 times for Belgium. A cultured technical player that you might see at Arsenal, or Liverpool.

I give you..Luc Nilis

He's the last piece in the puzzle. The offensive weapon to match the stubborn defence we already have.

We all know what happened next. He scored on his Villa debut in the intertoto Cup. He scored on his league debut against Chelsea. And then we knew we could compete against the big boys.

Two games later against Ipswich, after a quiet first half, Luc scored a brace, which was the catalyst for a run of 8 games unbeaten. He finishes with 19 league goals, firing Villa to 3rd, and Europe. The next few years Villa consolidated, using our European qualification to attract talent from France and Spain, which led in 2007 to Villa's first league title since 1981. And the rest, as they say is history.

(Dion Dublin was our top scorer in 2000-2001 with 9 goals in 35 games. Despite that, because of our stubborn defence we finish 8th, but never quite capitalise on our opportunity)

[wishywashy]

As aforementioned, winning the 2018 playoff could have genuinely been the worst thing to ever happen to Villa. Xia et al. could barely build a functioning Championship with a budget miles ahead of competitors (with non existent funding). They'd have likely have hedged all their bets on staying up, finished 20th with a woefully built squad, and Villa would have gone into the Championship again in a likely irrecoverable, or at least jaw droppingly awful financial state. No more NSWE or lottery owner at that point, so I assume we'd either go under and/or death spiral down the Football League. Getting promoted could quite feasibly have killed Aston Villa.

In a similarish vein, the 2019 playoff final was a sliding doors moment, but for Derby rather than us: losing that playoff final screwed up their financial position and they almost went bust.

Edited May 23, 2023 by wishywashy

[Kiwivillan]

3 hours ago, Mantis said:

Always been fascinated by the "what could have happened" timelines. Basically, what moments in recent (or ancient) Villa history stand out as being especially decisive? And by moments I'm talking about specific games or even specific moments in games which could've ultimately had a huge impact on our trajectory, for better or worse.

Examples:

March 2009 - the 2-2 draw at home against Stoke where we threw away a 2 goal lead in the last 5 minutes. If we'd have won we'd have been 8 points clear in 4th, admittedly with still a lot of games to go but after that game we went on a 4 game losing streak and would only win 2 more games that season. We haven't really been as close to CL qualification since.

February 2010 - the League Cup final defeat to Man U. That was where things started to unravel and you have to wonder if our trajectory would've been different had we won it

April 2011 - Ok this isn't a match, but Houllier's heart problems forcing him into retirement definitely had a huge impact. We had actually just started turning a corner and IIRC we were set to land Cabaye that summer if he'd stayed. To replace Houllier Lerner eventually appointed McLeish of course and we all know how that turned out. Definitely felt like this was the year when Lerner fully gave up.

September 2015 - the 3-2 collapse at Leicester under Sherwood. We may well have gone down regardless of the outcome (we'd replaced the entire spine of the team that summer with vastly inferior players and had a terrible manager), but if we'd had seen out this game we'd have had 7 points from 5 games, not great but not the catastrophic form we would end up slumping into that season.

May 2018 - One of the few moments in football where you can say with reasonable certainty that us losing a major game ended up helping us out massively in the long run. If we'd won, we'd have been promoted in the Premier League but no doubt splurged more money under Bruce and been in even deeper financial problems further down the line. Of course we lost the match, almost went broke and were saved by NSWE, and now 5 years later we're on the cusp of European football again.

June 2020 - the infamous goal-line technology blunder. Of course we could well have fought back and got something from the game, although at the time it's worth remembering how fragile we were. If we'd lost that game, it does seem unlikely that we would've stayed up that season due to how close it ended up being. Relegation would've meant Grealish leaving a year earlier, and the project being set back years. No Martinez, no Emery etc.

October 2021 - The collapse against Wolves, still the most furious and sick I've ever felt after a Villa game. There were already problems with Smith by that stage (we'd been in quite poor form in 2021) but if we'd have won this game as we should've done, Smith could still be here today.

 

Any others that stand out?

The obvious one is Gerrard imploding when Emery was ready to take PL job having turned down Newcastle offer as wasn't ready because son still at college

[zab6359]

1 hour ago, mikeyp102 said:

Covid, before the fixtures got stopped, it looked like we were in serious trouble and I don’t think we’d have recovered. Going back down to championship, may have seen the owners leave and then god knows where we’d be. 

Totally agree, we were in freefall and Covid gave us a breather and time to regroup. It could be a very different picture now if that had been a normal season.