Horse Racing: Jumps

[AvfcRigo82]

15 hours ago, Brumerican said:

I'll be sticking to my go big approach so I'll stay away from anything under 10's.

Agree with this especially at the festival, Generally when I back E/W at the festivals it has to be odds of 12/1 or bigger to make it worthwhile, anything less and it just gets singled as a win bet.

 

[choffer]

1 hour ago, Stevo985 said:

I'm going to Cheltenham next Friday.

I have absolutely no clue about horse racing, so any tips would be more than welcome  

I asked the same question a page or so ago. Flick back and pick up some of the favourites.

[Kingman]

Going is said to be soft/heavy so a lot of the current form will go out the window. 

Look out for proven mud monkeys that love swamps and never let the price put you off. 

Will probably be as many double priced winners as single figures. 

Edited March 8, 2018 by Kingman

[villa89]

1 hour ago, Stevo985 said:

I'm going to Cheltenham next Friday.

I have absolutely no clue about horse racing, so any tips would be more than welcome  

You'll hear about 4 or 5 of the horses for the Gold cup all tipped next week because it's so open. I'll probably back Sizing John E/W because I can't see him out of the places. If the weather turns bad and it's raining/heavy ground native river will be there or thereabouts.

[imavillan]

23 hours ago, choffer said:

I'm going on Tuesday. Only my second time ever to the races. No doubt I'll return with empty pockets.

 

1 hour ago, Stevo985 said:

I'm going to Cheltenham next Friday.

I have absolutely no clue about horse racing, so any tips would be more than welcome  

 

35 minutes ago, choffer said:

I asked the same question a page or so ago. Flick back and pick up some of the favourites.

 

Here are two betting forums which give out ''tips''

https://www.olbg.com/forum/

https://www.punterslounge.com/

 

You will go so many different opinions you will probably get confused. But at the end of the day its your money and your 'vote' as to which horse to back.

 

[snowychap]

51 minutes ago, choffer said:

I asked the same question a page or so ago. Flick back and pick up some of the favourites.

I imagine people will be putting up their tips/selections nearer the time when there's a clearer indication of the going (accepting the post above from Kingman), the final declarations (24 hours before racing), &c.

I normally wang my selections up the evening before but only take note of them because they're mainly to be best avoided. (Last horse I tipped in this thread didn't make it off the course alive)

Edited March 8, 2018 by snowychap

[AVFCDAN]

Cheltenham is one of the best meetings to go to, I'm sure you will both have a great time.

With all the revamps over the last 5 years its looking a lot better now as well.

Ironically this is the first festival meeting I will miss in about 6 years, i'll be watching and drinking in Birmingham instead this year.

I'll be backing Altior, Foodpad and Un De Sceaux, everything else I will be deciding next week.

Also in terms of betting your best options will be to do it online on your phone, theres loads of bookies with offers like money back as a free bet if the favourite wins, also having a betfair account will help as you will definitely get the best odds available on the exchanges. The worst value will be using the on course bookies although its a nice feeling actually being handed your winnings in cold hard cash of course.

Edited March 8, 2018 by AVFCDAN

[snowychap]

21 minutes ago, AVFCDAN said:

Also in terms of betting your best options will be to do it online on your phone, theres loads of bookies with offers like money back as a free bet if the favourite wins, also having a betfair account will help as you will definitely get the best odds available on the exchanges. The worst value will be using the on course bookies although its a nice feeling actually being handed your winnings in cold hard cash of course.

That's all fine if you're a regular punter looking for the best value and so on but if you're just an occasional punter or someone looking for the experience of the day out at the races then I'd definitely say take cash and  bet on course as that's part of the fun (including trying to search out the best price for the horse you want to back) though I'd probably avoid e/w betting for this reason (I guess most of them are still offering 1/5 the odds a place and just for standard places?).

My advice always is to set yourself an amount on each race (say a tenner on each of the seven races so seventy quid) and stick to it no matter how drunk you get.

[AvfcRigo82]

5 minutes ago, snowychap said:

Though I'd probably avoid e/w betting for this reason (I guess most of them are still offering 1/5 the odds a place and just for standard places?).

Is this just for on course betting you menion Snowy?

Apologies if I have mis-read this, but depends what bookmaker/website you use some generally offer 1/4 the odds, others do 1/5 odds on E/Ws that pay out on 5 places in a 4 places result etc.

Generally 1/4 odds payouts are nicer when you have 100/1 coming 2nd.  

[snowychap]

1 minute ago, AvfcRigo82 said:

Is this just for on course betting you menion Snowy?

Apologies if I have mis-read this, but depends what bookmaker/website you use some generally offer 1/4 the odds, others do 1/5 odds on E/Ws that pay out on 5 places in a 4 places result etc.

Generally 1/4 odds payouts are nicer when you have 100/1 coming 2nd.  

It was just in respect of the blokes in the ring on course, yes. My point was that if you're just out to bet with cash on course then probably stick to backing on the nose as, unless it's changed much recently, the each way terms you'll get are going to be very poor compared to shops and websites.

If I were due to be going to Cheltenham for a day then I;d do my e/w punting beforehand on the internet and stick to win only stuff (and betting without) on course.

[AvfcRigo82]

1 minute ago, snowychap said:

It was just in respect of the blokes in the ring on course, yes. My point was that if you're just out to bet with cash on course then probably stick to backing on the nose as, unless it's changed much recently, the each way terms you'll get are going to be very poor compared to shops and websites.

If I were due to be going to Cheltenham for a day then I;d do my e/w punting beforehand on the internet and stick to win only stuff (and betting without) on course.

Yeah absolutely spot on and couldn't agree more.

Most of the big Handicaps (from an online betting perspective) offer 1/4 odds, most of the other races offering the 1/5 odds on e/w I find it is hardly worth backing in these E/W anyway as generally one of the top 5 in the betting usually wins these type of races and prices tend to be 8/1 or less at times.

[AvfcRigo82]

1 hour ago, villa89 said:

You'll hear about 4 or 5 of the horses for the Gold cup all tipped next week because it's so open. I'll probably back Sizing John E/W because I can't see him out of the places. If the weather turns bad and it's raining/heavy ground native river will be there or thereabouts.

I thought initially about Mite Bite but as time goes on and more studying researched.. another 4 have appeared on the short list for this race.

After the snow had gone I hoped it would be a clear run to Cheltenham weatherwise allowing the course to dry naturally and develop perfect going Gd-Sft (Soft in places) hopefully the weather holds out and nothing drastic happens from now till Tues but I hear they are expecting significant rain. 

[Kingman]

Going Update!.. 

Speaking on Thursday morning, clerk of the course Simon Claisse said: "It stayed dry on Wednesday and then we had just one and a half millimetres overnight, so I'm leaving the going as it was, and the same on the Old, New and Cross Country courses.
"We might get a light shower today and then rain is coming tomorrow and Saturday which could amount to around 14 millimetres in total by Sunday. If that's the case we may go soft, heavy in places for a bit, but then Monday and Tuesday are looking pretty dry." 

[AvfcRigo82]

8 hours ago, villa89 said:

I'll probably back Sizing John E/W because I can't see him out of the places.

Withdrawn from the Gold Cup with injury.

Also yesterday Willie Mullins has retired the racing career of mare Vroum Vroum Mag.

[Brumerican]

1 hour ago, AvfcRigo82 said:

Withdrawn from the Gold Cup with injury.

Also yesterday Willie Mullins has retired the racing career of mare Vroum Vroum Mag.

Yup. Apple's Jade's price shortened to 8/13 for the Mares Hurdle straight after they announced that. 

[andym]

Did Gold Cup day last year but going for the opening day this year.

Got a few NRNB ante-post bets in-place, mostly taking on the favs with some bigger price punts - Mengli Khan in the supreme, Petit Mouchoir in the Arkle, Wicklow Brave and Faugheen (couldn't resist the chance of a glorious swansong lol) in the Champion hurdle, Cloudy Dream in the Ryanair and Minella Rocco and Edwulf in the Gold Cup.

One who may be worth keeping an eye on market wise is Penhill in the Stayers Hurdle. Won the Albert Bartlett at last years festival. Lack of prep run a concern, but owned by Tony Bloom (Brighton Chairman) who is a serious gambler - if he starts getting smashed up in the betting morning of the race, you will know they think he has a great chance. Bloom landed a serious gamble with one of his horses last year (Withold in the Cesarewitch).

 

[Brumerican]

On 08/03/2018 at 21:41, andym said:

 

One who may be worth keeping an eye on market wise is Penhill in the Stayers Hurdle. 

 

Noted. I like the look of La Bague Au Roi in that too.

Edited March 12, 2018 by Brumerican

[Villarocker]

For me, Native River is the certainty of the week at Cheltenham. 

He was only beaten a few lengths in last season's Gold Cup and that was after two massive races in winning the Hennessy over 3m 2f at Newbury and then followed that up with an unbelievable front-running performance to win the Welsh National, carrying top weight, in the mud, over 3m 5f at Chepstow. The runner up in that race came back to win it this year so that showed how gutsy a performance that was by Native River. 

This season has been easier for him and he looks like he'll get softer ground so won't be outpaced on the run-in this time. I just hope Richard Johnson takes it up when they turn for home and runs the finish out of the others. Native River proved his battling stamina qualities in the Welsh National so Johnson needs to make full use of them this time. 

I still cannot believe he's 5/1 and I'm chuffed to have gotten on him at 10s back in January 

Edited March 8, 2018 by villarocker

[Villarocker]

Sam Spinner in the Stayers for me. That's a tough horse and he'll love the soft ground if it stays that way. Kalashnikov would be another with a great chance on soft ground in the Supreme Novices. Both of them are trading around 5/1.

[Villarocker]

1 hour ago, andym said:

Did Gold Cup day last year but going for the opening day this year.

Got a few NRNB ante-post bets in-place, mostly taking on the favs with some bigger price punts - Mengli Khan in the supreme, Petit Mouchoir in the Arkle, Wicklow Brave and Faugheen (couldn't resist the chance of a glorious swansong lol) in the Champion hurdle, Cloudy Dream in the Ryanair and Minella Rocco and Edwulf in the Gold Cup.

One who may be worth keeping an eye on market wise is Penhill in the Stayers Hurdle. Won the Albert Bartlett at last years festival. Lack of prep run a concern, but owned by Tony Bloom (Brighton Chairman) who is a serious gambler - if he starts getting smashed up in the betting morning of the race, you will know they think he has a great chance. Bloom landed a serious gamble with one of his horses last year (Withold in the Cesarewitch).

 

I've always thought that Jonjo O'Neil is a schemer and I've got a feeling Minella Rocco will be the one to be on in the National this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see it miss the Gold Cup.