IrishVilla10 Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said: I still think Brighton and Liverpool will finish above us, but I also think Spurs may drop out of it all together. This would mean a 7th place finish which would be an incredible achievement. I'll still be gutted we didn't make the Europa League though! Next two games are massive. Win both and we can actually afford to lose a couple towards the end of the season. The next two games and wolves are must win games Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post SecretVillaScout Posted April 17, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted April 17, 2023 I want Newcastle to beat Spurs, I don't buy this wanting Spurs to win. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 1 minute ago, nick76 said: So it thinks we can’t beat any team above us or sky6 teams? We only win 2 of the next 7 on our current form? The Liverpool predictions are all over the place….drawing with Leicester and Leeds, losing to West Ham but beating Spurs and us. Weird! They aren't exact results as suggested by FiveThirtyEight. They have worked on an average expected points from the probabilites they've calculated for each result. Eg they have Liverpool getting 18 points for remainder of season, but the site actually has them as favourites for every single remaining game. The lowest win probabilty they have is West Ham away at 50%. So I've had to judge where they are more likely to drop the 9 points they are expected to somewhere, and have the other teams' predicted final tallies work as well. (I've just edited it to change the Brentford and Southampton results around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Delphinho123 Posted April 17, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted April 17, 2023 (edited) 2 minutes ago, SecretVillaScout said: I want Newcastle to beat Spurs, I don't buy this wanting Spurs to win. Any result 'suits' us. Newcastle win, it means Spurs are right back in the mix. Spurs win and Newcastle are suddenly in 'freefall' and a top 4 spot may become available again for those chasing. It's the perfect fixture for us as any result can be construed as positive for us. We just need to concentrate on winning. Edited April 17, 2023 by Delphinho123 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobzy Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 9 minutes ago, Kiwivillan said: Really no plus many have them figured out and nullified old threats Have they, though? Bar the blip against Bournemouth, recent results have been largely as you’d expect. They’ve beaten Newcastle away, hammered Man Utd at home, looked good coming back against Arsenal. Can’t help but feel their decline is being somewhat exaggerated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 Just now, bobzy said: Have they, though? Bar the blip against Bournemouth, recent results have been largely as you’d expect. They’ve beaten Newcastle away, hammered Man Utd at home, looked good coming back against Arsenal. Can’t help but feel their decline is being somewhat exaggerated. 3 away wins all season. What did they get last year, 12 or 13? That's a huge drop off. Even in 20/21 (which was of course without any fans) they won 10 away games. Hopefully that holds up in last few games. Leeds already won at Anfield this season so shouldn't have any psychological hold ups for tonight and West Ham will probably fancy getting home win v Liverpool based on what they did yesterday. DS needs to help us aswell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pinebro Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 Call me entitled or whatever. Conference is a crap competition. If we can't get europa or CL I'd rather finish 8th 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zhan_Zhuang Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 1 hour ago, HeyAnty said: Spurs to beat Newcastle best result for us? I think it might be but it depends of our thoughts on making top 4 or top 6. Yeah it's a tough one, there are so many points still to play for so our chances do not just rest on this one result...I'm thinking a draw would be best for Villa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishVilla10 Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Pinebro said: Call me entitled or whatever. Conference is a crap competition. If we can't get europa or CL I'd rather finish 8th Conference would still be huge. For the players and the club considering we were 17th in October. And winner gets into the Europa as well and we’d probably be one of the favourites to win it. 8th and another season of potentially not making top 6? Give me 7th and the conference now any day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 1 minute ago, IrishVilla10 said: Conference would still be huge. For the players and the club considering we were 17th in October. And winner gets into the Europa as well and we’d probably be one of the favourites to win it. 8th and another season of potentially not making top 6? Give me 7th and the conference now any day. Conference is also good to keep Tim and Archer around next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 (edited) 49 minutes ago, nick76 said: So it thinks we can’t beat any team above us or sky6 teams? We only win 2 of the next 7 on our current form? The Liverpool predictions are all over the place….drawing with Leicester and Leeds, losing to West Ham but beating Spurs and us. Weird! In other words total shit. No way Manure get those returns with SEVEN fixtures in 18 days and crap defence Edited April 17, 2023 by Kiwivillan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishVilla10 Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, Zhan_Zhuang said: Yeah it's a tough one, there are so many points still to play for so our chances do not just rest on this one result...I'm thinking a draw would be best for Villa. Look who Newcastle have left to play, bottom half teams mostly. I don’t see us catching them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, Pinebro said: Call me entitled or whatever. Conference is a crap competition. If we can't get europa or CL I'd rather finish 8th Even if you don't care about the competetion, mad to ignore the potential additional revenue, even if it doesn't compare to CL money. Likely to be far more than anything we'd get from domestic cups next season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 1 minute ago, IrishVilla10 said: Look who Newcastle have left to play, bottom half teams mostly. I don’t see us catching them So no use wanting Spurs to beat them. I want Spurs to drop out and us go ahead of them by the time we play and beat them 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zab6359 Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 2 hours ago, Tayls said: Never. I don’t think we’d won 5 until the other day. We did 5 in a row in 1998 apparantly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said: Even if you don't care about the competetion, mad to ignore the potential additional revenue, even if it doesn't compare to CL money. Likely to be far more than anything we'd get from domestic cups next season. The minimum a team would earn from the group stage to winning the final is €13,329,000, maximum of €15,190,000. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 These prediction models are complete garbage. They probably use historical data and don't factor in recent form or how many fixtures teams have to play all comps. What's the bet model had us down for loss vs Chelsea and Newcastle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wict01 Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 Just now, tomsky_11 said: Even if you don't care about the competetion, mad to ignore the potential additional revenue, even if it doesn't compare to CL money. Likely to be far more than anything we'd get from domestic cups next season. I think it's a cup we could feasibly win too. You look at who's in the last 8 this year and I don't think any of those sides would hold much fear for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 Just now, duke313 said: The minimum a team would earn from the group stage to winning the final is €13,329,000, maximum of €15,190,000. I think teams run at loss in these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 3 hours ago, Pinebro said: 8th?? We have massive momentum. I have my sights on Newcastle and 4th. 6 points is absolutely doable. It is but we need some luck for 6th. We literally have to win most of our games and hope others drop points (liverpool brighton) My point is if we finish 8th im not ever criticising emery or the players what they ahvw done to turn it alround has been absolutely incredible- id argue its been as impressive as smith taking ua from midtable to 5th in our promotion year. My final point no matter what happens emery ans thw boys are heroes for this season whether we get europe or not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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