Tempering expectations

[cb_82]

9 minutes ago, MentalM said:

I would love to win the cup, but this year I would prefer if we focused mainly on the PL. Not because we have a CL/EL to preserve, but who knows, we could compete. And this season I am more scared of injuries to the tight program, and I would prefer rotations to happen in the cup. 

Cant we take advantage of that tight program though? We aren't going down so while others rest in the cup due to league/champions league commitments we progress? Im sure Liverpool will be much changed Friday so lets go and knock them out !

[VillaChris]

2 hours ago, MaVilla said:

To be brutally honest, i think MON failed in the top 4 scenario, he imo should have got us top 4 with the players and investment he had (specifically the 2008/09 season).

In 2008/09 we finished 6th on 62 points (4th was on 72 points), we were effectively in the top 4 right up until game week 29.

in the first 25 games we won 15, drew 6 and lost 4.

in the last 13 games we won 2, drew 5 and lost 6, we effectively bottled it that year, that year should have been a nailed on top 4.

lets not forget that was also the famous year where we played the B team in the UEFA cup to "give us a better chance in the league of finishing top 4".....right before that 13 game run.

2008/09, where our squad consisted of Friedel, Bouma, Cuellar, Barry, Milner, Petrov, Young, Carew etc.

Our players just ran our of steam. Gabby always used to play every minute of every game up to March and then he'd either pick up an injury or just stop scoring. Young level would always dip aswell as he was always brilliant around the xmas period. Even Milner needed to be rested for the odd game.

Under MON we'd always have strong first halves of the season and then peak at xmas/ January before performances and then eventually results would dip from middle of February. We never won a league game in March in any of his four seasons.

Team like Arsenal around that time would be opposite. They'd have dodgy first 20 games but then have a strong second half of the season and that's what tends to get you top 4.

It's important we give our players breathers when possible. If that means leaving Jack, SJM and Ollie all on the bench v Liverpool so be it.

[VillaChris]

1 hour ago, lexicon said:

It definitely would have made the transition easier, but it was never really his style - I think by the time the Heskey transfer came in, we probably didn't have a lot of cash left either and that kind of player was a lot more expensive then. On a side note, really amazing how much the overall quality of the league has improved in the last 10 years or so. 

I would say the opposite, peak of premier league was imo 2006-10. Look how strong the top teams were with their keepers, defences and midfields and that was reflected in european cup where you regularly had 3 English semi finalists. Fulham also made europa final in 2010 and we could've done that around the time if we hadn't just given up once we reached the knock outs.

If we'd had the Lerner takeover a few years earlier around 2003/04 we could've finished top 4 a couple of times really. Or even in the post 2010 period where Liverpool fell off the the cliff for a few seasons, Spurs took advantage of that one.

[VillaChris]

1 hour ago, est1874 said:

Personally I think that what's being interpreted here as entitlement is actually more like anxiety coupled with impatience.

A lot of it is born out of the fact that we are witnessing a rarity in Jack Grealish: a once-in-a-generation talent who is good enough to play for anyone in the world (genuinely), but is in fact a local lad who bleeds Villa and wants to succeed with us if he can help it.

I think there's a realisation, however, that as much as Jack loves us and wants to succeed here, he will leave if that doesn't happen.

So the times when we've had opportunities to cement ourselves in the top 3/4 this season and haven't done so (or been robbed by VAR) have bred a lot of frustration and emotional response as a result.

I think a lot of people do have the sense that if we don't finish in European positions this year, Jack will inevitably leave. Not because finishing 10th isn't a sign of great progress in the space of one season (it is), but because Jack is good enough to win titles - either in England or elsewhere.

There may be other factors too, of course. Maybe some individuals really are entitled. But that's how I read it -- essentially this season is our best opportunity in a decade to really push on and show we mean business as a club, so when we lose it somehow hurts all the more.

I'm confident Jack will be still here next season. If he hadn't signed the new deal we'd have had to sell him in 6 months as he'd only have a year left but he will still have 4 years left in the summer so we're in a very strong position.

In the short term his goals have been met, we've become competitive in top half of the league and he's in every England squad now and will go to euros bar injury. That should be enough for him to give us next season unless there's a buyout clause.

Think when he gets to 27 though that's when the big decision will have to take place as Barry was around that age when he first started wanting to leave and go to Liverpool. If we're not in europa by then I suspect he'll go.

[paul514]

On 03/01/2021 at 11:00, Greenfly said:

I've been thinking about this a lot lately, especially after browsing Villa twitter. I know that place is an absolute cesspool, but there's a running theme of our fans getting spoilt by our good form this season.

I'm seeing it all over; talk of some players not being good enough, despite us residing in the top six half a season after avoiding the drop by one point. People saying anything less than an EL spot this season would be a failure, considering the general consensus originally was an upper bottom half finish with no relegation concerns would be a successful season.

We're in danger of becoming a spoilt fanbase, and I'm worried it's going to happen soon. Look at Wolves - they've tasted some success, now they've hit hard times there all turning in Nuno. That could easily happen to us too.

I don't know where I'm going with this, but it's something that needs to be said and remembered. We're doing extremely well. This next month will be very tough, probably the toughest period of the whole season. Things might not go well, but it does not erase the good work we've already done.

Let's just temper or expectations a little, ok? 10th would've been a fantastic finish at the start of the season, and that hasn't changed.

I will be happy once we have hit 50 points.

It is a significant increase on last year and in a normal year would have you anywhere between 13 and 9.
 

We all hope for more given our start but in my mind that is what is success this year.

[PaulC]

7 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Our players just ran our of steam. Gabby always used to play every minute of every game up to March and then he'd either pick up an injury or just stop scoring. Young level would always dip aswell as he was always brilliant around the xmas period. Even Milner needed to be rested for the odd game.

Under MON we'd always have strong first halves of the season and then peak at xmas/ January before performances and then eventually results would dip from middle of February. We never won a league game in March in any of his four seasons.

Team like Arsenal around that time would be opposite. They'd have dodgy first 20 games but then have a strong second half of the season and that's what tends to get you top 4.

It's important we give our players breathers when possible. If that means leaving Jack, SJM and Ollie all on the bench v Liverpool so be it.

He got criticised for fielding a weakened team in the europa league in the hope we could finish top 4. Gabby was looking at breaking the 20 goal barrier and couldnt score a goal after february. He could have utilsed the squad better instead of picking the same 11 every game. Smith faces a similar problem this season although expectation are not the same. 

I hold the FA cup as very important. At the end of the day are we playing for trophies or league position. Leave out the players who need a rest but field as strong a team as possible. 

[bobzy]

Possibly mentioned before (I haven't read everything) but worth noting that the teams we are yet to face this season are Tottenham, Man City, Everton and Newcastle.  Obviously we'd hope to beat Newcastle, but this could easily see us on 29 points after half the season and sitting in 12th place.

The main thing is that we're looking better as a team and are competitive against every other team in the league.  If we hadn't thrown away some daft games (Brighton, Burnley and to an extent Southampton and Leeds) we could actually be in title contention  

[Stevo985]

1 hour ago, WooJung said:

As well as this we should also keep in mind that at the time the likes of Man City and Spurs were nowhere near the level they are now, and leicester or its equivalent wasn't really a thing.

Point being, the league wasn't as competitive as it is now, even considering Arsenal's recent form

We still had that "Top 4" division. It was like two separate leagues. The top 4 were competitive with each other and the rest of the league were competitive with themselves.

But that meant that if we had bridged that gap, which we should have, we'd have had a good chance of staying there.

[Kingman]

12 hours ago, Spoony said:

That was actually a little different though. Comparative to other teams at the time we were hurling money at the squad which ultimately underperformed through his poor management and ridiculous signings for huge huge sums. 

Wouldn't say we were hurling money as the 3 seasons we finished 6th we were the 6th highest Net spenders. If anything I think we over achieved finishing 6th 3 times in a row with a number of average players. 

We will never know the granular details of who sanctionsed the signing fees, Ultimately Faulkner and Kurlak have to be held accountable just as much as the trend continued after MON. 

See Given, Ireland, Nzog etc.

 

Edited January 4, 2021 by Kingman

[paul514]

1 hour ago, PaulC said:

He got criticised for fielding a weakened team in the europa league in the hope we could finish top 4. Gabby was looking at breaking the 20 goal barrier and couldnt score a goal after february. He could have utilsed the squad better instead of picking the same 11 every game. Smith faces a similar problem this season although expectation are not the same. 

I hold the FA cup as very important. At the end of the day are we playing for trophies or league position. Leave out the players who need a rest but field as strong a team as possible. 

Couldn’t disagree more, the players have lots of games this month, the fa cup is an opportunity to rest this year

[wilko154]

Do we think we will win the league by March or do you think May would be more realistic?

[PaulC]

1 hour ago, paul514 said:

Couldn’t disagree more, the players have lots of games this month, the fa cup is an opportunity to rest this year

So just throw in the towel devaluing one of the great competitions in English football history. 

[sne]

3 minutes ago, PaulC said:

So just throw in the towel devaluing one of the great competitions in English football history. 

This year, yeah I would. I wouldn't if it was the semis or the final but we have invested nothing in the tournament this season.

Then again we have enough points already that we should be safe from relegation so I guess we could go for it in the cup and try to gain European football that way rather than the league.

[PaulC]

1 minute ago, sne said:

This year, yeah I would. I wouldn't if it was the semis or the final but we have invested nothing in the tournament this season.

Then again we have enough points already that we should be safe from relegation so I guess we could go for it in the cup and try to gain European football that way rather than the league.

We have to get the balance right. We should rest a few players but take the cup seriously. 

[sne]

5 minutes ago, PaulC said:

We have to get the balance right. We should rest a few players but take the cup seriously. 

Yeah, risk vs reward. Difficult.

[TRO]

5 hours ago, villa4europe said:

agree with everything apart from the last sentence

the problem is that only looks at us and not at everyone else, take liverpool, chelsea, city, spurs, utd out of it for a start, then you have leicester who have 5 or 6 players who were around £30m, and everton who have ancelotti and again 3 or 4 £30m players and James, so thats the top 7 done, so then chuck us in with southampton, west ham, wolves, arsenal if they turn it around and maybe leeds, from that wolves and southampton are better teams than what we are right now, west ham have an expensive squad but a shit manager, arsenal are an enigma because they could sign a £50m player in jan and pull their finger out of their ass making themselves not so bad anymore, leeds finishing above us id be disappointed with just because **** leeds

with that kind of context and assuming that we at least see progression in the football if not the results and position i would be ok with finishing 11th or 12th

We no longer look like an assembly of 11 players doing their individual thing.....We look like a team and that for me has been the biggest turnaround.....Dean is well aware of the improvement required despite the huge leaps forward, its certainly an interesting time.

spending 50m on a player is what we all dream of, but how many have we seen other clubs do that, only to have talent and no desire......as we progress ,the pool to pick from gets smaller, so we must be more dilligent and selective of who we bring in and for where in the team.

[lexicon]

8 minutes ago, sne said:

Yeah, risk vs reward. Difficult.

I think we should go one way or the other tbf - either go for it 100% or put a 2nd string out. Half-measures aren't going to beat Liverpool, so there's no point going that route IMO. 

[TRO]

3 hours ago, VillaChris said:

Our players just ran our of steam. Gabby always used to play every minute of every game up to March and then he'd either pick up an injury or just stop scoring. Young level would always dip aswell as he was always brilliant around the xmas period. Even Milner needed to be rested for the odd game.

Under MON we'd always have strong first halves of the season and then peak at xmas/ January before performances and then eventually results would dip from middle of February. We never won a league game in March in any of his four seasons.

Team like Arsenal around that time would be opposite. They'd have dodgy first 20 games but then have a strong second half of the season and that's what tends to get you top 4.

It's important we give our players breathers when possible. If that means leaving Jack, SJM and Ollie all on the bench v Liverpool so be it.

we wouldn't have had the stats from the weekend, in a MON team, sure he won many games on the road, using moments in a game, usually smash and grab....but not the controlled football we muster now.

We equalled or out performed Man U in most of the significant stats ....they was probably more aggressive with 22 fouls v our 9.....but possession was 50/50 ..corners we had 5 more, slightly more passes, some performance against a possession based team like Utd, away from home.....Mon would not have done that.

[paul514]

37 minutes ago, PaulC said:

So just throw in the towel devaluing one of the great competitions in English football history. 

Yea for this year

[TRO]

10 hours ago, Kiwivillan said:

I'm perennially over optimistic since we got Smith as manager. I was posting on Aussie/Kiwi PL Fantasy football group last season we were top 10 material and got loads of shit. Now with signings I feel we're legit top 6 material. Often having running battles on FB with people calling some of our players shit. I think a lot of Villa fans are doom and gloom around the corner because of years of shit but I'm definitely glass half full now regardless of the odd bump in the road

It would have taken confucius to have foreseen this turn around from the last game at Villa park, after the 0-4 reversal by Leicester.....but wonderful, it has been.

sure, things have gone great and winning breeds confidence, but the fight back has been remarkable.....sure Dean deserves all the praise for that, but the fans are not necessarily fickle, football, itself is whats fickle......form is brittle and easily drained, it takes huge inputs of desire, willingness, camaraderie, togetherness, to maintain it......talent is the tools to take us there, those former things are what keeps us there, the substance, the belief.

I would guess, some fans on here will not agree with Deans assessment of us in the first half at Old trafford....But Bravo Dean for having the insight to notice and the conkers to say it, in the dressing room at half time.

 

Edited January 4, 2021 by TRO