Political Ramifications of Covid-19 Pandemic

[chrisp65]

Yeah that’s true actually, we are seeing a bit of a split between the casual I’m alrighter that doesn’t really think about it, but knows they want a tax cut not a homeless hostel, and the hardcore why should my pound save your mum’s life type of conservative.

In the interest of balance, imagine if we had an effective opposition. Who did win that Labour leader thing back in the day?

 

[LondonLax]

I am worried it will make people more fearful and retreat further into isolationist politics when I think we need to see the opposite, more global cooperation and coordination.

A collective sharing of information and data is required to work out a global ‘best practice’ (and not just for pandemic response but a lot of aspects of society could benefit from greater sharing of knowledge). 

[snowychap]

 

[blandy]

56 minutes ago, Chindie said:

It's perfectly in line with conservatism.

I'm alright Jack, until I'm not alright, then you make sure I'm alright.

Of course we are now seeing the new form of conservatism where it's more of a callous let em die it might save a penny form, but generally it's a good fit.

Kind of, but it's not quite how I see it. I mean it "fits", but I think it misses the kind of underlying truth, perhaps. It's taken this kind of pandemic for people to maybe see some error in their ways.

I look at it as (in normal times) conservatives and right wingers are quite wedded to the idea of "help people who help themselves" - a sort of rewarding of "effort" (with all the flaws inherent in that, but that's how I perceive it). And the left wing are more about (again I'm talking "normal times") "help those who are unable to help themselves". So the tories normally have a dislike of those they see as "scroungers" and "lazy". And the left normally have a dislike of "grabbers" and "selfish".

But this virus thing has changed normal circumstances. People, especially the tories, have realised that they can't "help themselves", that they are dependent on help from the state, in part because of what the state has done (e.g closed down their business activity, or whatever). So they are now in a position where the left wing "help those who can't help themselves" applies. BUT, only because it's not normal times. This episode might make some change their outlook a bit, but I suspect that it won't, for most. People rationalise their views - making a version of the world in their minds that fits with their ideas.

Many tories, especially the politicians give off an air of "I'm all right Jack", but many others don't. They see it as "I've DONE stuff to get what I've got and I DESERVE it, because I did the stuff, and others want what I've got without putting the effort in, and that isn't right or fair"

And the left wing view is sometimes a bit "They did diddly squat to get what they've got, they just got lucky, and they don't want others to have any share of their undeserved stuff"

There's something in both of those different takes, I think. There are scroungers, there are undeserving, selfish "let 'em die" folk. But there are also people who worked hard to get their wealth, who are conservative, but caring. There are those who despite working just as hard, have little to show for it.

So the stereotype of Brexity tory, I'm all right, let 'em die types is just....easy, and there are examples aplenty, but they are not the mass they're portrayed as. Of the (relatively small number) of tory types I know, almost none are like that. The one or two that are, well, I don't really have anything to do with them, anyway, because of it. The real difficulty, perhaps is that politicians can appeal to the tory instincts and drag them towards a bad direction. They can say things which are a kind of code for an underlying nastiness of outlook and cloak it in a layer of "common sense" to make it seem "obvious". And that task is made easier if the opposition is either inept, or very starkly very opposite , or "extreme". Which has been the case with Labour for far too long. And Labour has massively helped, too with their recent manifestos. People have liked a fair chunk of their ideas, at face value, but when they actually think about the nature of a lot of it, they turn away, because while (for example) "publicly owned water" seems a "good thing", if they are asked whether people who have a pension, or a few shares, or savings invested in a company are asked "should the government be able to take their money, their pension or savings from them", they think "No, that's not fair".

It's the variable concept of fairness that is the thing which drives which way the political spectrum and actions swing, really. So the government gets approval for the furlough scheme (if not the implementation) because if the government closes down a factory because virus, to protect people then "it's only fair" they pay the workers affected. The government will come out of this well if they are competent, and badly if they are not competent. They will come out well if they are seen as "fair" and badly if their actions are unfair (either by dint of being badly executed, or because the policies are inherently unfair).

[mjmooney]

Very good post, @blandy. 

[chrisp65]

2 hours ago, snowychap said:

 

 

How long before some of these defence committees identify Jews and gypsies as the main spreaders of infection?

[chrisp65]

Niche subject matter here.

Neil Hamilton currently campaigning to abolish the Senedd (Welsh Assembly) and just have a Westminster Parliament.

For those of you that don’t remember what he looks like, he’s the one with a Welsh independence flag in the background.

[maqroll]

6 hours ago, Stevo985 said:

I'm amazed at the amount of people desperate for us to now plough money into public services that have voted Conservative for the last 10 years.

And all the GOP voters who are clamoring for relief checks. Cognitive dissonance at it's finest.

[LondonLax]

I think a true crisis like this really shows up the limitations and lack of actual competency of populist politicians, from Trump to the Brexitier wing of the Tory party in power in the UK to Bolsonaro to the Italian coalition to Duterte (who is ordering his military to shoot to kill people who leave their houses!?).

Unfortunately however they will likely be very competent at spinning their way out of culpability after the event. 

Edited April 2, 2020 by LondonLax

[Awol]

The banks seem very reluctant to lend to SMEs despite the government’s scheme, insisting business owners personally guarantee the remaining 20%.

Faced with your business potentially  failing through no fault of your own, I think asking folks to put their home on the line as collateral is a bit much. 

Question for anyone in banking/high finance: Could the government stand up a new national bank, capitalised directly by the BoE to cut out the commercial sharks and lend at cost (say 0.5% interest) to keep these companies afloat until we return to normal trading conditions? 
 

 

[blandy]

1 hour ago, Awol said:

Could the government stand up a new national bank, capitalised directly by the BoE to cut out the commercial sharks and lend at cost (say 0.5% interest) to keep these companies afloat until we return to normal trading conditions? 

I'm an engineer, not a banker, but didn't the LibDem/Tory lot set up a lib dem idea - a Green investment bank? I think the tory part of the coalition sort of strangled it, but it seems the principle is definitely do-able in practice. Or they could do Government direct loans or bonds or whatever. They had no problem helping the banks 12 years ago, after all, when they were hit.

[Davkaus]

1 hour ago, Awol said:

The banks seem very reluctant to lend to SMEs despite the government’s scheme, insisting business owners personally guarantee the remaining 20%.

Faced with your business potentially  failing through no fault of your own, I think asking folks to put their home on the line as collateral is a bit much. 

Question for anyone in banking/high finance: Could the government stand up a new national bank, capitalised directly by the BoE to cut out the commercial sharks and lend at cost (say 0.5% interest) to keep these companies afloat until we return to normal trading conditions? 
 

 

The banks go through a crisis, we bail them out and go through a decade of austerity.

We have a crisis, the banks say "up yours" and exploit the tragedy to make a fortune. 

If they can't afford to weather the next financial crisis, we should let them fail, they should have bought fewer avocados.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Davkaus

[Xela]

As someone who works in banking, we are definitely not saying "up yours" to people. Most people I know in the commercial/corporate banking industry are working long hours/weekends to assist businesses in this crisis. Restructuring debt, extending overdrafts, payment holidays on mortgages/loans/asset finance, etc. I've had a lot of feedback from business owners thanking us for helping them so quickly and getting stuff sorted. Obviously there will always be the odd bad news headline and they are the only ones people hear about. 

 

[maqroll]

On 01/04/2020 at 08:26, LondonLax said:

I am worried it will make people more fearful and retreat further into isolationist politics when I think we need to see the opposite, more global cooperation and coordination.

A collective sharing of information and data is required to work out a global ‘best practice’ (and not just for pandemic response but a lot of aspects of society could benefit from greater sharing of knowledge). 

A paradigm shift is needed now. No more wars, no more fossil fuels. We need to leave all that behind and cooperate. The alternative is perpetual hell.

[maqroll]

16 minutes ago, Xela said:

As someone who works in banking, we are definitely not saying "up yours" to people. Most people I know in the commercial/corporate banking industry are working long hours/weekends to assist businesses in this crisis. Restructuring debt, extending overdrafts, payment holidays on mortgages/loans/asset finance, etc. I've had a lot of feedback from business owners thanking us for helping them so quickly and getting stuff sorted. Obviously there will always be the odd bad news headline and they are the only ones people hear about. 

 

Mortgage holders here seem to be getting relief but not so much renters, big shocker.

[Awol]

2 hours ago, Xela said:

As someone who works in banking, we are definitely not saying "up yours" to people. Most people I know in the commercial/corporate banking industry are working long hours/weekends to assist businesses in this crisis. Restructuring debt, extending overdrafts, payment holidays on mortgages/loans/asset finance, etc. I've had a lot of feedback from business owners thanking us for helping them so quickly and getting stuff sorted. Obviously there will always be the odd bad news headline and they are the only ones people hear about. 

 

I’ve no doubt your industry is bridging many firms through this, but anecdotally it does appear many others are not getting access to the finance they need - hence my question. 

The banking industry more broadly may be less keen to take risks than it used to be (and given the local and global outlook that’s perhaps not surprising) but @Davkaus is clearly right that society took a decade long hit to pay off the debts of bad corporate behaviour. That’s not to blame any individual, but it’s still true.

Given the urgency I think there’s a strong case to go around the commercial banks, even if it means a new long-term financial sector model that includes the state as a lender. 

[chrisp65]

2 hours ago, Xela said:

As someone who works in banking, we are definitely not saying "up yours" to people. Most people I know in the commercial/corporate banking industry are working long hours/weekends to assist businesses in this crisis. Restructuring debt, extending overdrafts, payment holidays on mortgages/loans/asset finance, etc. I've had a lot of feedback from business owners thanking us for helping them so quickly and getting stuff sorted. Obviously there will always be the odd bad news headline and they are the only ones people hear about. 

 

From a couple of friends that have sole trader type small businesses, they aren’t being told ‘up yours’. They’re still being told they’ll be got around to once more detail is known.

I think maybe there’s quite a time lag between a government announcement that there is funding and banks are being told to help ... and banks actually offering anything other than holding statements.

...and as I was writing that, the tv news has just said of the £230 Million of aid for small businesses promised by the govt., banks have given out £90 Million. So there is clearly a bottleneck or commas issue somewhere.

 

Edited April 2, 2020 by chrisp65

[chrisp65]

...or we could just be seen to be clapping every Wednesday (weather permitting)

[Xela]

17 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

 

...and as I was writing that, the tv news has just said of the £230 Million of aid for small businesses promised by the govt., banks have given out £90 Million. So there is clearly a bottleneck or commas issue somewhere.

 

Huge bottleneck of work. Imagine 75% of your clients ringing you up asking urgently for assistance and trying to squeeze it all into a 60-70 hour week? Not gonna happen. Just have to prioritise the most critical cases and work from there (much like the NHS!)

Years of 'streamlining' workforces in banks are now coming back to bite the powers that be on the arse as there isn't enough people left to cope with the influx of work 

 

[chrisp65]

MP’s have agreed to match the charity donations of Premier League footballers and take a 20% pay cut in solidarity with the country.

My mistake, they’ve been granted an additional £10,000 of expenses so they can work from home, because famously, MP’s houses don’t already have WiFi or a laptop or a mobile phone.