Generic Virus Thread

[sidcow]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

The bolded bits have always been true haven't they?

I thought the reason it was more infectious AND the reason it was milder was because it lives in the throat and not the lungs

Yes it's always been true but now it's it's even quicker to become infectious and even more transmissible for the reasons you state.  That's my understanding from the news reports anyway. 

[Genie]

10 minutes ago, robby b said:

So are you telling me that vaccines are usually developed and trialled in less than a year? I thought they were usually developed over about five years or more? Thanks again for helping me with my washing machine, it's been a dream machine!

The amount of testing was the same, just condensed into 12 or so months. The 3-5 year norm includes things like recruiting staff and candidates for the testing, business case work, gathering investment and grants, submitting results and waiting for them to be ratified etc etc. There’s loads of detailed videos and reports that explain how the testing was completed in full in a short period of time if you’re genuinely interested.

[robby b]

4 hours ago, Genie said:

The amount of testing was the same, just condensed into 12 or so months. The 3-5 year norm includes things like recruiting staff and candidates for the testing, business case work, gathering investment and grants, submitting results and waiting for them to be ratified etc etc. There’s loads of detailed videos and reports that explain how the testing was completed in full in a short period of time if you’re genuinely interested.

Hi Genie, that's a very good explanation, thank you, and I am genuinely very interested, I'm reading a few reports at the moment. As I said earlier today, I've had the vaccine myself, I was one of the first people in my age-group to have it, in March. And I strongly encourage others to have it too. All I was saying was that the research and analysis had to be done very quickly, in about 3/4 of a year, I read about the scientists working flat out, very long hours, the vaccines and test results produced so fast, so I can see why some people might have worried a bit about that: e.g. In the race against time with all the pressure could a serious oversight/mistake potentially happen? But that didn't happen because the covid vaccine clinical trials had to be conducted in a standard way with no shortcuts, as thoroughly as previous clinical trials for other vaccines, e.g. with the three trial stages and the standard/adequate number of participants. The scientists involved plus all the pre-covid vaccine research were all amazing. An amazing achievement.

And the Astra-zenecka blood clots showed that there had been a little risk... however, thankfully just a tiny risk, a few in a million (which is why it didn't show up in the trial, which was tens of thousands, not a million).

I absolutely think people should get a covid vaccine, like I have done, to reduce the number of serious long term illnesses and deaths from covid and to help society and the economy to get back to normal again.

Thanks again for your washing machine advice, it has been great since you and Blandy got the water supply back on and the little leak fixed! 

Edited December 18, 2021 by robby b

[JoshVilla]

2 hours ago, sidcow said:

With Omicron it seems people are infectious much quicker and before they really develop symptoms which is one of the reasons why it's so transmissible. 

I'm not sure it's a case of blaming anyone really.  Probably more a question of if games should be played behind closed doors again. 

We'll have more data on Omicron on the coming days so we'll know for sure if it's significantly less harmful or not.  That'll drive a lot of decision making I would think. 

I agree on the Omricon stuff.

RE: the cases though, we know full well that if there's a huge spike then we'll see lots of "it's all those unvaccinated pricks" posts all over social media, when I just can't see how that's the case when they're the only ones testing. I just don't agree how the blame is all being pinned on a single group. (Though the government would definitely prefer if we direct all our anger at the unvaccinated and say it's all their fault so that we don't hold them to account for their own failings)

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

Just gone into the hardest and fastest lockdown in the Netherlands.  No shops or anything open except essential.

Cases are going down which is odd.

[Genie]

2 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

Just gone into the hardest and fastest lockdown in the Netherlands.  No shops or anything open except essential.

Cases are going down which is odd.

It only a matter of time though, the storm is on its way. Currently sweeping through France.

Edit: Ref the severity of the lockdown though, it does sound quite harsh. 

Edited December 18, 2021 by Genie

[wilko154]

I completely understand why people don't want to get vaccinated, they understand the risks involved, they understand that the virus could be worse for them and that hospitalisations could be higher. But if they don't want it they don't have to have it.

I also understand the Governments worries, they are worried that the hospitals beds will become full on scale of the first lockdown. Mainly by unvaccinated people whose effects will be greater.

But... many people in this country have now played their part. They've locked down, they've socially distanced, and they've now fully vaccinated.

Germany for me have it spot on, crack on and limit the unvaccinated people for a few months during the winter period. It's harsh, but why should everyone now face restrictions to keep those unvaccinated safe. Covid passports can be used, take away the lateral flow tests from any one of vaccination age. U18's don't need to prove any status.

No mandatory vaccinations, but a level of control allowing those who have played their part to continue their lives.

[Morley_crosses_to_Withe]

Quote

Is there any good news at all on Omicron? Yes, there are small signs of hope

Quote

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/dec/18/is-there-any-good-news-at-all-on-omicron-yes-there-are-small-signs-of-hope

 

[choffer]

 

[LondonLax]

3 hours ago, sidcow said:

With Omicron it seems people are infectious much quicker and before they really develop symptoms which is one of the reasons why it's so transmissible. 

I'm not sure it's a case of blaming anyone really.  Probably more a question of if games should be played behind closed doors again. 

We'll have more data on Omicron on the coming days so we'll know for sure if it's significantly less harmful or not.  That'll drive a lot of decision making I would think. 

The U.K. reported 90,000 new cases but only 10,000 were Omicron. The 80,000 Delta infections would still be a record. This is a Delta wave from the Christmas party season. 

[nick76]

25 minutes ago, wilko154 said:

I completely understand why people don't want to get vaccinated, they understand the risks involved, they understand that the virus could be worse for them and that hospitalisations could be higher. But if they don't want it they don't have to have it.

I also understand the Governments worries, they are worried that the hospitals beds will become full on scale of the first lockdown. Mainly by unvaccinated people whose effects will be greater.

But... many people in this country have now played their part. They've locked down, they've socially distanced, and they've now fully vaccinated.

Germany for me have it spot on, crack on and limit the unvaccinated people for a few months during the winter period. It's harsh, but why should everyone now face restrictions to keep those unvaccinated safe. Covid passports can be used, take away the lateral flow tests from any one of vaccination age. U18's don't need to prove any status.

No mandatory vaccinations, but a level of control allowing those who have played their part to continue their lives.

Because while those that are still vaccinated, the vaccine only slightly reduces transmission.  Currently it’s main job is to dramatically decrease the chance of severe symptoms.

If we continue normal life, the virus has more opportunity to spread, which increases the chances of mutation.  Further mutation can be mild but also can be really problematic and potentially partially resistant/avoidance of vaccines, which is incredibly dangerous obviously.  That was the worry initially of Omicron in that could it have markers that avoided the vaccine, because it had 32 changes. If it did we could’ve be close to going back to square one of the pandemic, thankfully it doesn’t look like it.  The next variant we might not be so lucky.

 

 

 

[sidcow]

22 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

The U.K. reported 90,000 new cases but only 10,000 were Omicron. The 80,000 Delta infections would still be a record. This is a Delta wave from the Christmas party season. 

10,000 CONFIRMED Omicron but not all results are tested.  The true number of Omicron will be far higher than 10,000.

They've already confirmed it's the most common form in London and will be in England 8n a couple of days. 

[Mic09]

33 minutes ago, sidcow said:

10,000 CONFIRMED Omicron but not all results are tested.  The true number of Omicron will be far higher than 10,000.

They've already confirmed it's the most common form in London and will be in England 8n a couple of days. 

Honest question - what happens with Delta? Is it simply pushed out? If someone encounters delta/omricon are they simply more likely to catch the latter? 

Is Alpha (soooo 2020) completely gone now?

[robby b]

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/covid-coronavirus-vaccine-development-speed/amp

"How Covid-19 vaccines were made so quickly without cutting corners".

Interesting report.

[sidcow]

1 hour ago, Mic09 said:

Honest question - what happens with Delta? Is it simply pushed out? If someone encounters delta/omricon are they simply more likely to catch the latter? 

Is Alpha (soooo 2020) completely gone now?

I believe that if Omicron takes over Delta does get pushed out.  One of the reasons why everyone is hoping this really is a very mild version. 

However I guess it depends on if Delta can reinfect someone who's had Omicron or not.  Delta was more potent than previous variants so I guess they found it difficult to infect people who have already had a more virulent version. 

[Mic09]

3 minutes ago, sidcow said:

I believe that if Omicron takes over Delta does get pushed out.  One of the reasons why everyone is hoping this really is a very mild version. 

However I guess it depends on if Delta can reinfect someone who's had Omicron or not.  Delta was more potent than previous variants so I guess they found it difficult to infect people who have already had a more virulent version. 

So, is it safe to assume our only hope is that, fingers crossed, there won't be another "major" mutation?

[sidcow]

Just now, Mic09 said:

So, is it safe to assume our only hope is that, fingers crossed, there won't be another "major" mutation?

Well all bets are off then. 

However the current vaccines are 2 years out of date based on the original Covid-19 strain but coped with the Alpha and Beta mutations well enough, and can just about deal with Omicron which is massively mutated. 

The new vaccines are in development now and once they're in a groove we're unlikely to ever be 2 years behind the curve again so you would expect them to perform much better in future and keep pace with mutations like they do with the annual flu vaccine. 

[sidcow]

Plus of course the history of viruses is GENERALLY that when they mutate they're more virulent and less deadly. 

Who knows, maybe most common cold viruses today were like Covid-19 1,000 years ago. 

[robby b]

13 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Plus of course the history of viruses is GENERALLY that when they mutate they're more virulent and less deadly. 

Who knows, maybe most common cold viruses today were like Covid-19 1,000 years ago. 

So the Alpha, Beta and Delta mutations have been exceptions to that then (as they've been more deadly than the original Covid-19)? I'm guessing that's why you put generally in capitals.

Edited December 18, 2021 by robby b

[sidcow]

1 minute ago, robby b said:

So the Alpha, Beta and Delta mutations have been exceptions to that then (as they've been more deadly than the original Covid-19)?

Yes, which is why I put GENERALLY in capital letters. 

Maybe it goes a bit up and down on the way but GENERALLY that's how they mutate.