Dean Smith

[sne]

It's the alternate universe manager thread 

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

2 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

That’s a good question. I love Smith and am grateful for everything he has done for the club. But I do wonder at times if he is the man to take us to the next level.  I would never want him sacked but I wouldn’t be upset if the owners opted for a change either.  

I know what you mean.

Ideally I want him here for the Long haul, but if the board had a top class manager to replace him, I don't know if I'd be upset about it.

I have said before though I kinda feel if he feels he can't do anymore with us, he'd probably resign himself.

Anyway, let's just hope it works out for Deano!

[TRO]

7 hours ago, Dave-R said:

I'd Smith went I'd rather go all out for pic.

I just think no matter where we are next season that Smith will still be here, untill it happens there is no point floating that around, we may as well get behind the guy and support all the way.

Next transfer window should be better for us, we will be able to concentrate on other areas like midfield and bring some decent quality in to play beside Jack, John and Luiz because I think he will really start producing better soon. If we're to carry on this Winger rubbish, then I want to see real quality added there and in midfield next to a couple others, until we do I think we're going yo have trouble the way were playing because there's no consistency in our midfield playing well apart from Jack. Between 2 Wingers, 1 cdm, 3 midfielders it's abit of a wreck at the  moment so no wonder why were struggling in games and the defence and keeper is a strained area most matches, next season should be better and improved.

If we survive, I'd look to sell some players on next season and replace with better, Lansbury, Hogan, Davis, Taylor, Elmo, Ghazi, Jota, sarkic, would be my first choices to make money off. For one reason or another many of those are not working out and can be improved on alot.

I think Dean is well supported Dave and well liked.

I have my reservations, but that doesn't mean, I want him sacked.

I would like to hear, him come out and acknowledge these poor defensive statistics and reassure us he is aware of the need to remedy it.

without any reference to it, its tantamount to condoning it as an attacking football trade off.

thats what worries me.

[TRO]

7 hours ago, Kiwivillan said:

Players have to be wanted by another team and not take a pay cut which is why we're stuck with some Bruce big wage signings. Thanks again Potato Head 

I'm not trying to be rude but many posters seem to be living in fantasy land regarding how easy it is to sign players in our current status or offload Championship level players on big wages. 

Check the Transfermarkt......its been an issue for the last 20 years, Bruce is an easy target, to just pick him out alone......many , many staff have presided over this mediocrity.

over the last 20 years and all the dealings, we are where we are, so we have achieved, precisely what?......I just think its not very good at all.....we have in the main, just treaded water, by buying no better than what we had or done nothing with them and just rinse & repeat.

Players indeed need to be wanted by other clubs and for a considerable amount of time now, we have not hade the best record of developing them....some clubs are very good at enhancing player value, it seems we have not or we pay through the nose, its one or the other or both.

 I think fans are entitled to question our ability in the transfer market....its a really important feature of any future success.

buying players is not easy, but its not easy for other clubs either, but its one of the most important and critical things to get right in a football club.....its central to success along with getting the right manager.

[TRO]

2 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

That’s a good question. I love Smith and am grateful for everything he has done for the club. But I do wonder at times if he is the man to take us to the next level.  I would never want him sacked but I wouldn’t be upset if the owners opted for a change either.  

I find it difficult to reconcile that....you love him.....presumably, you mean you love what he is doing....but in the same breath wonder if he is the man to take us forward, but don't want him sacked, but wouldn't be upset if the owners wanted a change.

I couldn't honestly tell you what i think your real feelings is on Dean.

I think you are well and truly on the fence.

[Laughable Chimp]

1 hour ago, Dave-R said:

If the bloke has us survive this season there is no question about it you kind of have to stick with the guy as yet again we'd of improved on the season before.

Now if we drop that's the question I think. In one hand has he's done it already he could take us back up, on the other it could fail it's a 50/50 isn't it.

Survive he has really earnt his chance and I think really that's the sweet spot because he did what was asked of him.

We get rid of Smith though in the championship and who do we then turn to because there's no pulling a Poc or Benitez in that is a fact.

Either way I think the answer is clear and cut, stay with Smith. At most next season Smith may not produce the results he's asked to produce and we do have to say goodbye.

Think it also depends on how we get relegated if we do. We better be right on that border of safety for the rest of the season at the very least. I can accept getting relegated in the final week of the season still battling it out. I can't really accept being relegated before that. I'd rather just part ways with him in that case.

 

Edited February 7, 2020 by Laughable Chimp

[TRO]

1 hour ago, Dave-R said:

There is always pay off like we did to Ross and Micah right?? if worst thing comes to worse and we cant shift some players then at least getting them off the books is better than keeping them here. They may even take a small pay cut if it's a whole sum straight away.

Not sure how long Hogs, Lansbo and Taylor have left on there contracts, those are the three I'd want to shift as fast as possible if we survive.

Better due diligence in signing players, would be nifty, in not having to fully amortise players to get rid of them.

we have been creating our own problems in the past.

[Vive_La_Villa]

5 minutes ago, TRO said:

I find it difficult to reconcile that....you love him.....presumably, you mean you love what he is doing....but in the same breath wonder if he is the man to take us forward, but don't want him sacked, but wouldn't be upset if the owners wanted a change.

I couldn't honestly tell you what i think your real feelings is on Dean.

I think you are well and truly on the fence.

I love him for what he has done for the club. I also think he is doing a good job considering the circumstances. I’d just like to think the owners will be around a lot longer than Dean will so if they feel a change of management was the right think to do id back it.  
 

Maybe I am on the fence. 

[Vive_La_Villa]

5 minutes ago, Laughable Chimp said:

Think it also depends on how we get relegated if we do. We better be right on that border of safety for the rest of the season at the very least. I can accept getting relegated in the final week of the season still battling it out. I can't really accept being relegated before that. I'd rather just part ways with him in that case.

 

When this happens it can normally mean the coaches have lost the players and a change is inevitable. 

[TRO]

1 hour ago, Dave-R said:

If the bloke has us survive this season there is no question about it you kind of have to stick with the guy as yet again we'd of improved on the season before.

Now if we drop that's the question I think. In one hand has he's done it already he could take us back up, on the other it could fail it's a 50/50 isn't it.

Survive he has really earnt his chance and I think really that's the sweet spot because he did what was asked of him.

We get rid of Smith though in the championship and who do we then turn to because there's no pulling a Poc or Benitez in that is a fact.

Either way I think the answer is clear and cut, stay with Smith. At most next season Smith may not produce the results he's asked to produce and we do have to say goodbye.

So far, I am not convinced, Dean would take us up automatically, play offs maybe.

His teams are not rounded enough( defensively & offensively) to occupy the top 2 spots.

his ability to preside over 49 goals against, with no likely fix on the horizon has suggested this to me....its why we are flirting with relegation.

[Laughable Chimp]

So, did some calculations on what would be our expected points total based purely on the money we've spent in total transfer expenditure and total wage bill and it would be 44 points. There's a decently strong correlation between points and sum of total wage bill and total transfer fees(stronger than just looking at the wage bill and transfer fees by themselves).The wage bill I'm using is estimated as well since we have a significant amount of our players who haven't had their salary reported yet. I just found the average salary of all our players that do have their salary reported and assumed that's the salary for all the players that don't have it reported. I also used data from only the 2017-18 PL season.

The standard deviation between predicted points and actual points talley is 9 points. Would it be fair to say then, if we finish at less than 35 points then that Dean Smith has done an unnacceptably poor job and we should cut our losses with him?

 

Edited February 7, 2020 by Laughable Chimp

[TRO]

12 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

I love him for what he has done for the club. I also think he is doing a good job considering the circumstances. I’d just like to think the owners will be around a lot longer than Dean will so if they feel a change of management was the right think to do id back it.  
 

Maybe I am on the fence. 

So what is your feelings on us conceding nearly 2 goals every game on average.

How does that fit in with doing a good job?

[sne]

13 minutes ago, TRO said:

So far, I am not convinced, Dean would take us up automatically, play offs maybe.

His teams are not rounded enough( defensively & offensively) to occupy the top 2 spots.

his ability to preside over 49 goals against, with no likely fix on the horizon has suggested this to me....its why we are flirting with relegation.

Bit early to be speculating about this surely as we do not know what our squad would look like, which teams we would be facing, what managers those clubs would have or what squads those clubs would have  

[TRO]

10 minutes ago, Laughable Chimp said:

So, did some calculations on what would be our expected points total based purely on the money we've spent in total transfer fees and total wage bill and it would be 44 points. There's a decently strong correlation between points and sum of total wage bill and total transfer fees(stronger than just looking at the wage bill and transfer fees by themselves).The wage bill I'm using is estimated as well since we have a significant amount of our players who haven't had their salary reported yet. I just found the average salary of all our players that do have their salary reported and assumed that's the salary for all the players that don't have it reported. I also used data from only the 2017-18 PL season.

The standard deviation between predicted points and actual points talley is 9 points. Would it be fair to say then, if we finish at less than 35 points then that Dean Smith has done an unnacceptably poor job and we should cut our losses with him?

 

When you look at Southampton and how they have come back from their mullering by Leicester, anything is possible if you dig deep, get organised and apply tenacity and urgency to overcome the opposition.

easier said than done...me thinks.

We are in a scrap for the next 13 games......we need to show, we have the appetite for it.

Edited February 7, 2020 by TRO

[TRO]

5 minutes ago, sne said:

Bit early to be speculating about this surely as we do not know what our squad would look like, which teams we would be facing, what managers those clubs would have or what squads those clubs would have  

Well there is enough speculating on this site, I thought i would join in.

its no different than saying our players will be better next year...no one really knows that either.

Its just my perception.....sorry for putting my head above the parapet.

Edited February 7, 2020 by TRO

[Sam-AVFC]

10 minutes ago, Laughable Chimp said:

Would it be fair to say then, if we finish at less than 35 points then that Dean Smith has done an unnacceptably poor job and we should cut our losses with him?

 

It depends. Did you adjust for inflation of transfer fees?

[sne]

1 minute ago, TRO said:

Well there is enough speculating on this site, I thought i would join in.

its no different than saying our players will be better next year...no one really knows that either.

Its just my perception.....sorry for putting my head above the parapet.

Fair enough, which 2 teams (or more) do you think will finish above us in the Championship next season?

[TRO]

I am not suggesting we sack Dean Smith....we still have 13 games to go.

buts lets just look at the mentality of Liverpool....as an example of attitude and drive.

• Brendan Rodgers was not doing a bad job, would we have sacked him? not likely.....but their bar is much higher than ours in terms of winning and success and their pursuit of it.
• Shankly said when he put his arm around Ron Yeats and said "its time up big man" it was the hardest thing he ever had to do, in view of his service to Liverpool...but he also said" it had to be done".

successful teams are ruthless.....we can't keep looking back and patting our selves on the back of what we have done, we have showed our appreciation already.....time to move on.

ps I think Man U have lost their ruthless streak too since Fergie left. And we lost ours after Sir Ron.

 

Edited February 7, 2020 by TRO

[Laughable Chimp]

27 minutes ago, Sam-AVFC said:

It depends. Did you adjust for inflation of transfer fees?

I'm fairly confident you do not need to adjust for inflation of transfer fees here. So long as inflation is constant for all clubs in a single season which it is. I will gain the same values even if I did adjust it for inflation because of this.

Edit: Actually you know what, hold that thought. I might be wrong here.

Edit2: Yeah, you're right. I'm probably wrong here. I'll try and adjust for inflation.

Edit3: Actually, PL clubs have spent less this year compared to 2017-18. They spent 1.96bil in 2017-18 but spent 1.60bil in 2019-20. That's an 18% decrease.

Adjusting for deflation then puts us at 47 points instead. I didn't bother calculating any inflation for the wage bills however which might affect it.

Edit4: Nvm, I should've compared expenditure per player. Not total expenditures. After excluding loan players, its 10.8mil per player in 2017-18 and 11.3 mil in 2019-20. So a 5% increase in price per player. That puts Villa at somewhere arounud 43 points if my calculations are correct.

Edited February 7, 2020 by Laughable Chimp

[DCJonah]

33 minutes ago, TRO said:

So what is your feelings on us conceding nearly 2 goals every game on average.

How does that fit in with doing a good job?

It's hard to take your concerns seriously. 

You wouldn't hear a bad word against the guy who finished 13th in the championship and then failed to get promotion with arguably the best team in the league. 

And now we are meeting the target of survival and in a cup final and all you do is criticise. 

I don't understand how anyone could be passionately for Steve Bruce as manager and not be for Dean Smith. I can't wrap my head around it. 

And I think some of your concerns are valid but he hasn't failed yet. He's done nothing but achieve since arriving. 

Edited February 7, 2020 by DCJonah