General Election 2017

[HanoiVillan]

Five opinion polls out tonight, all with fieldwork done after the Manchester bombing, and all showing quite different totals:

Opinium - CON +10

ComRes - CON +12

ORB - CON +6

YouGov - CON +7

ICM - CON +14

That's quite a lot of variation. A lot of polls may be some way off this year: they all did badly in 2015, and all have tried different ways to correct their over-sampling of enthusiastic young Labour supporters. Time will tell whether each pollster has over-corrected, under-corrected or corrected just about the right amount, but if we have to make some sort of conclusion about the state of the race, a decent presumption right now might be about a 10-point Tory lead based on nothing more than averaging. 

EDIT: Reference: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9896

Edited May 28, 2017 by HanoiVillan

[sharkyvilla]

Yes the bigger leads seem to come from those who are trying to account for the shy Tory/overly-engaged left effect.  It'd be interesting to see who turns out to be correct.  It's hard to see where the next eating into the Tory vote will come from now the manifesto reactions have calmed down.  I should think this next two weeks is where Crosby will earn his money for May.

[Awol]

7 hours ago, snowychap said:

That's not correct, is it?

That was what R4 reported when I heard it. Is it wrong, did the kids kill the terrorists? 

[PompeyVillan]

7 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

Five opinion polls out tonight, all with fieldwork done after the Manchester bombing, and all showing quite different totals:

Opinium - CON +10

ComRes - CON +12

ORB - CON +6

YouGov - CON +7

ICM - CON +14

That's quite a lot of variation. A lot of polls may be some way off this year: they all did badly in 2015, and all have tried different ways to correct their over-sampling of enthusiastic young Labour supporters. Time will tell whether each pollster has over-corrected, under-corrected or corrected just about the right amount, but if we have to make some sort of conclusion about the state of the race, a decent presumption right now might be about a 10-point Tory lead based on nothing more than averaging. 

EDIT: Reference: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9896

I think that's a fair assesment, but in truth we don't really know. With 2 million odd 'new' registered voters and a 3 million increase turnout for Brexit referendum it's impossible for pollsters to second guess I think. They don't really know what they are compensating for in my opinion.

I'm sceptical that Labours increases in polls will translate to votes. Labour votes are softer than Conservative, old people, robot-drone-voters. 

 

[snowychap]

2 hours ago, Awol said:

That was what R4 reported when I heard it. Is it wrong, did the kids kill the terrorists? 

No. The reports are that there were 28 coptic christians killed, the number of children varies from two to 'many'.

[Awol]

11 minutes ago, snowychap said:

No. The reports are that there were 28 coptic christians killed, the number of children varies from two to 'many'.

So why didn't you just correct my post...? The original report was a bus full of school children, but the point remains that a bunch of innocent people were slaughtered by Islamic terrorists for reasons unrelated to foreign policy. 

[markavfc40]

Just watching Diane Abbott on the Andrew Marr show. What a liability. When you think of all the good people in the Labour party who aren't shadow minsters and then you have someone like Abbott in the role of shadow home secretary you really do have to question Corbyn's judgement and ability to bring his party together to ensure he gets the best out of it and has the most competent MP's in the prominent roles.

[snowychap]

4 minutes ago, Awol said:

So why didn't you just correct my post...?

I was giving you the opportunity to look in to it.

3 minutes ago, Awol said:

the point remains that a bunch of innocent people were slaughtered by Islamic terrorists for reasons unrelated to foreign policy

I'm not sure it was a point in the first place.

Edited May 28, 2017 by snowychap

[Awol]

49 minutes ago, PompeyVillan said:

Labour votes are softer than Conservative, old people, robot-drone-voters. 

 

General point really, do you think we could manage to keep the slagging to the parties themselves and their policies rather than the people who vote for them? 

I and others could be spectacularly rude (not that you have been in your post, it's a general observation) about the mental capacity of anyone voting to put the likes of Diane Abbott into Office, but it doesn't really help the debate, imo.

Speaking of the Abopotamus she did brilliantly on Marr just now... 

[Jon]

2 minutes ago, Awol said:

 

Speaking of the Abopotamus she did brilliantly on Marr just now... 

I thought Labour had hidden her away in a broom cupboard until after the election. Seems she has got out to scupper any lingering electoral chances. 

[Awol]

7 minutes ago, snowychap said:

I was giving you the opportunity to look in to it.

I'm not sure it was a point in the first place.

Thank you for the opportunity to correct my homework.

If you didn't think it was a relevant point you could have just said so and explained why, it would certainly add more to the conversation. 

[Awol]

Just now, Jon said:

I thought Labour had hidden her away in a broom cupboard until after the election. Seems she has got out to scupper any lingering electoral chances. 

You know the motto, 'once in never out'. Up the 'Ra. 

[jon_c]

10 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

 ...competent MP's in the prominent roles.

This is absolutely Corbyn's biggest problem. Yes the Tories have similar issues (see Fallon) but Labour rarely put anyone on TV who isn't Abbott or McDonnell. They really need to push some of the other shadow cabinet. 

[chrisp65]

I can't help thinking that there would be a few changes if I woke up one morning and found myself appointed Labout campaign manager.

Such easy improvements too.

1. Any ex Blair cabinet member, do us a favour, go take a holiday for a couple of weeks. We're not asking for support or endorsement or a pledge of loyalty. Just **** off to where there is poor phone reception for 2 weeks.

2. Diane Abbott, I'm sorry you've just got struck down with laringitis, you just stay in doors and if any one asks you a question through the window, point at your throat and shrug apologetically.

3. Jeremy, love the new dark suit and white shirt, really really works. Now if someone asks you a tricky question about the IRA or nukes, close the question down. Say 'yes I did, but that was then and this is now, we have an incompetent foreign secretary, an incompetent defence secretary and a weak, tired and controlling PM that are about to make some really life changing errors for all of us'. 

4. Why are we taxing families more, to offer tax cuts for the mega rich and international tax evading corporations. It's simply not fair is it?

5. Why does May change her mind so much on everyting important as soon as there is any pressure? Flip flop tired old May.

6. Has flip flop no numbers tired old May changed anything in the manifesto today? I can't keep up. 

Edited May 28, 2017 by chrisp65

[snowychap]

4 minutes ago, Awol said:

Thank you for the opportunity to correct my homework.

Yes, well done.

Edit: The reports (that I looked at) may be wrong. It may have been 28 'schoolkids'. They are saying differently but they may not have got it right.

Edited May 28, 2017 by snowychap

[PompeyVillan]

26 minutes ago, Awol said:

General point really, do you think we could manage to keep the slagging to the parties themselves and their policies rather than the people who vote for them? 

I and others could be spectacularly rude (not that you have been in your post, it's a general observation) about the mental capacity of anyone voting to put the likes of Diane Abbott into Office, but it doesn't really help the debate, imo.

Speaking of the Abopotamus she did brilliantly on Marr just now... 

Fair point. 

Just to give context, I am slightly sore as a (just about) under 30 who works with young people about how we/they feel that our demographic is ignored by older voters.

The truth is that young people don't vote in enough numbers to be taken seriously. That's their fault, in part. But it does feel slightly unfair for those that are engaged and do vote.

The general feeling is that more young people than old would have liked to have remained as part of the EU and would prefer a Labour/Lib Dem/Green (anything but Conservative) government. 

I'm making quite broad generalisations based on my acedotal observations and loosely on data I've seen on voting trends, I understand that. But it is my feeling.

I get upset when older voters say they are voting in the best interest of their children and grandchildren. If only they were speak to them they'd realise they could be doing the opposite.

And as for Diane Abbott, there's no defending her, she's hopeless.

[This Could Be Rotterdam]

Well at least we know her hairstyle has changed since then. The point finally sunk in after the 10th time of her mentioning it. Made me forget all about whether or not she regrets her comments on the ira! 

[Awol]

19 minutes ago, PompeyVillan said:

I get upset when older voters say they are voting in the best interest of their children and grandchildren. If only they were speak to them they'd realise they could be doing the opposite.

Perhaps those older voters might counter by saying that their children and grandchildren might not always know what's best for them, raise that lack of taking personal responsibility as proof, and having been young once themselves understand that young people are often too busy enjoying their youth. /tongue removed from cheek.

More seriously I agree it would be good for young people generally to get more politically active as a demographic to represent their views. Equally it would be good for younger people to recognise that wisdom doesn't proportionately decrease with age, or levels of inherent racism increase...

 

[peterms]

[PompeyVillan]

9 minutes ago, Awol said:

Perhaps those older voters might counter by saying that their children and grandchildren might not always know what's best for them, raise that lack of taking personal responsibility as proof, and having been young once themselves understand that young people are often too busy enjoying their youth. /tongue removed from cheek.

More seriously I agree it would be good for young people generally to get more politically active as a demographic to represent their views. Equally it would be good for younger people to recognise that wisdom doesn't proportionately decrease with age, or levels of inherent racism increase...

 

Off topic but I'd like to see electoral reform. Many people don't vote because they don't think they can make a difference.

I'm not quite with @blandy when he says his vote doesn't matter, because it does. Every vote matters in my opinion, because that shows engagement with politicans. But in a similar situation to many, my vote won't make the slightest bit of difference to the result of the election. It feels futile to go to the polling station. 

I'm not clued up as to what the answer is though mind.