Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Genie]

3 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

By the end of this war Russia will be finished economically.  No imports or exports (of any note).   I have a feeling it will be unworkable,  nobody will want it.  It has a chance the whole thing falls down,  all the little countries might just leave,  there is literally nothing to stop them anymore.

If you replace Putin,  what do you do ? No money and no investment chances at all.  No gas or oil to sell unless capped,  by sea.

Most if not all of anyone with a brain has left.  They can't do the Oil and Gas thing without western help anyway,  they don't have the tools or people to keep it going.

The Demographics of Russia means it was finished anyway,  the war just speeds it up.  

Yes, his decision making has **** the country over for generations to come. The only hope the country has is getting rid of Putin ASAP and then replacing him with someone willing to do a lot of grovelling on the world stage. 

Easier said than done after decades of portraying the west as evil (bit like the UK and the EU in some respects). Would they elect a new leader who promised a closer relationship with the west? I doubt it.

 

[bickster]

Going back to the Russian deaths... Ukraine's figures (Take with pinch of...) show that Russia had more soldiers killed in October than any previous month in the war. The first full month of the war, March was the previous highest but October  surpassed that. Ukraine estimate that 12 860 Russians were eliminated in October. Regardless of whether you believe the figures to be exact, the Ukraine figures at least do follow the trends in fighting

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

Peskov saying they have intel (apparently a Liz Truss text to Blinken) that it was the British Navy that did the Nordstream pipes and that we can expect some kind of response..

[Mandy Lifeboats]

2 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

Peskov saying they have intel (apparently a Liz Truss text to Blinken) that it was the British Navy that did the Nordstream pipes and that we can expect some kind of response..

I read about this.   Its supposedly the words "Its done".  

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

59 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

By the end of this war Russia will be finished economically.  No imports or exports (of any note).   I have a feeling it will be unworkable,  nobody will want it.  It has a chance the whole thing falls down,  all the little countries might just leave,  there is literally nothing to stop them anymore.

If you replace Putin,  what do you do ? No money and no investment chances at all.  No gas or oil to sell unless capped,  by sea.

Most if not all of anyone with a brain has left.  They can't do the Oil and Gas thing without western help anyway,  they don't have the tools or people to keep it going.

The Demographics of Russia means it was finished anyway,  the war just speeds it up.  

Yes and no.   

Russia will still be able to export gas and oil in massive quantities.   They will still be able to import what they need in expertise and equipment.  

Sanctions work.  But they only have 3 impacts.   Decreasing the value of exports.  Increasing the value of imports.   Increasing the time it takes to import and export. 

Iran has been under sanctions for decades.    When the revolution happened in 1979 Iran had 79 top quality F14 Tomcats.   The USA blocked all spare parts or maintenance contracts.  in 2022 there are still around 15 - 20 Tomcats flying in Iran.   If they can keep a complex weapon like the F14 flying Russia can certainly keep their gas and oil flowing. 

The West's sanctions on Russia today are no different to the West's sanctions on the USSR.   It simply means the Russian Economy will not be able to match the West in an arms race.   The $h!t$how that calls itself the Russian Army will not be a threat to NATO for decades to come. 

     

 

[magnkarl]

27 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Yes and no.   

Russia will still be able to export gas and oil in massive quantities.   They will still be able to import what they need in expertise and equipment.  

Sanctions work.  But they only have 3 impacts.   Decreasing the value of exports.  Increasing the value of imports.   Increasing the time it takes to import and export. 

Iran has been under sanctions for decades.    When the revolution happened in 1979 Iran had 79 top quality F14 Tomcats.   The USA blocked all spare parts or maintenance contracts.  in 2022 there are still around 15 - 20 Tomcats flying in Iran.   If they can keep a complex weapon like the F14 flying Russia can certainly keep their gas and oil flowing. 

The West's sanctions on Russia today are no different to the West's sanctions on the USSR.   It simply means the Russian Economy will not be able to match the West in an arms race.   The $h!t$how that calls itself the Russian Army will not be a threat to NATO for decades to come. 

     

 

It never was. If Patton and some of the top generals on our side had actually gotten their way we'd have removed Stalin in 1945 and gotten Russia out of the totalitarian tail spin it's been doing since then. The Red Army was only good because of numbers and American aid.

The only thing that kept Soviet a superpower was the nuclear deterrent. 

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

46 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Russia will still be able to export gas and oil in massive quantities.   They will still be able to import what they need in expertise and equipment. 

For the Oil and Gas,  they can't reduce the flow of wither of these.  The price may well be capped at some point also but they allready give China / India 30% approx. discount when the price was high (as China / India know they need to get rid).

Once the EU turn off the pipes,  then where does this (70%) of their Oil and Gas go to?  How do they get it there,  as in transport and in what form,  don't forget LNG is not an option at all at this point,   they are 95% geared up to deliver by pipes and any other transport has not been invested in or even thought about by Russia.  Pipes are no a solution here as they are mostly off.  Most of the Oil and Gas is in the Artic circle,  how do they move it to the markets they want to sell in and in what currency taking into account secondary sanctions will kick in at some point ? If they want to use shipping,  that seems perfectly logical apart from there are not enough ships in the world and they cant get insurance or dock anywhere.  Pipes or boats,  Russia will be a target for anyone going forward,  its all fine and dandy until someone blows the pipe or ship up.

They can't import the expertise and equipment they need for the oil and gas industry,  this is only true when the big western companies are involved.  If they could do it on there own they would do,  but  they cant and will never be able to do it.  If the US finds out you have sent parts to Russia you will encounter problems.   

 

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

40 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

It never was. If Patton and some of the top generals on our side had actually gotten their way we'd have removed Stalin in 1945 and gotten Russia out of the totalitarian tail spin it's been doing since then. The Red Army was only good because of numbers and American aid.

The only thing that kept Soviet a superpower was the nuclear deterrent. 

And the countries that bought the oil and gas.  After 2014 its genuinely astonishing that they carried on with it.

The missiles fired by Russia are in some part paid for by the EU.  Noordstream 2 was never even allowed to be turned on as it would have been geo political suicide.

[blandy]

1 hour ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

Peskov saying they have intel (apparently a Liz Truss text to Blinken) that it was the British Navy that did the Nordstream pipes and that we can expect some kind of response..

The pipes were damaged on 26 September. Her phone was found to have been hacked before then (during / prior to the Tory Leadership contest). So they don't have any such evidence.

Further Russia previously claimed it was the US that did it, to sell more LNG to Europe.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Expertise and parts will still be available. They will just be more expensive.  

[Mozzavfc]

2 hours ago, villa89 said:

Indeed, if only we had a coalition of nations, a "United Nations" if you will, that would command a huge, undefeatable army dedicated to stopping any pointless war like this one. Unfortunately we don't have anything like that in the world at the moment. 

If Russia didn't have nukes, there would have been boots outside Moscow a week after the first shot was fired at Ukraine 

[bickster]

31 minutes ago, Mozzavfc said:

If Russia didn't have nukes, there would have been boots outside Moscow a week after the first shot was fired at Ukraine 

I don't think this is the case at all. It would have played out pretty much as it has

[Genie]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

I don't think this is the case at all. It would have played out pretty much as it has

I reckon more missiles would have been sent into Russia if there wasn’t the risk of WMD in retaliation.

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, Genie said:

I reckon more missiles would have been sent into Russia if there wasn’t the risk of WMD in retaliation.

By who and at what targets?

Ukraine has been attacking targets inside the Russian border since March.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Ukraine has been attacking targets all over Russia since March

[villa89]

58 minutes ago, Mozzavfc said:

If Russia didn't have nukes, there would have been boots outside Moscow a week after the first shot was fired at Ukraine 

Nah, the UN only turn up when the war is over. They "peacekeep" until someone fires a gun and then they flee. 

[Genie]

33 minutes ago, bickster said:

By who and at what targets?

Ukraine has been attacking targets inside the Russian border since March.

Ukraine, and proper military targets.

The reason Ukraine are not officially claiming what they are doing now and again is because of the nukes.

[Davkaus]

10 minutes ago, villa89 said:

Nah, the UN only turn up when the war is over. They "peacekeep" until someone fires a gun and then they flee. 

Don't forget all the raping.

[bickster]

3 minutes ago, Genie said:

The reason Ukraine are not officially claiming what they are doing now and again is because of the nukes.

I'm not sure I understand the logic. Who do you think Russia think are launching missiles at military / logistics targets in their Internationally recognised territory right now?

Ukraine not claiming attacks has absolutely nothing to do with Russia having nuclear weapons, Russia know they are doing it

[Genie]

20 minutes ago, bickster said:

I'm not sure I understand the logic. Who do you think Russia think are launching missiles at military / logistics targets in their Internationally recognised territory right now?

Ukraine not claiming attacks has absolutely nothing to do with Russia having nuclear weapons, Russia know they are doing it

Turn it another why, why are Ukraine not claiming any explosions in Russia? 

They happily take credit for thousands of deaths and destruction of Russian military in Ukraine. Bits and bobs over the border and they aren’t saying anything.