Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Chindie]

7 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

That’s not really true - unless you define pushing Russia out of all the occupied territories as not being a victory, because it’s just reclaiming land they already owned 10 years ago.

If Ukraine had cast iron support from Europe and the US in terms of arms and munitions, then that’s a plausible scenario. Ultimately Russia cares less about that territory than Ukraine does, and eventually there comes a point where one side will decide it’s not worth the bloodshed.

The problem is there’s a very obvious path to victory on the table for Russia right now - just wait for the Western coalition to fall apart. But that’s something the West could take away. Even Europe could do it alone if it really wanted to - Russia has the GDP of Italy. If that was taken away Ukraine becomes far more likely to win the war than Russia imo.

Its more of a semantic argument (the best type of argument) but my point is more that Ukraine can't force Russia into a position where Ukraine 'wins' - there's not a scenario where Ukraine decides this war is won, there can only be a scenario where Russia decides the war is not worth winning. Thus Ukraine's war is totally one of holding off Russia untill that point is reached. In theory Ukraine could force Russia all the way back to their established pre-2014 border, but that wouldn't be a 'victory condition' it would just be a good position to hold, but Russia wouldn't be beaten (unless they decided they'd had enough).

But it's fairly clear that that isn't going to happen. Ukrainian support is wobbling as it's allies tire and have other things to look at, Russia still has loads of stuff to chuck at the fight even if some of it is comparatively shit, and Russia isn't really in the fight just for the land anyway it's got a bigger aim, a higher purpose behind the fight that will be harder to break than just making taking territory very, very hard thus putting off an expansionary power - Putin wants to make a point and the price to stop him might not be achievable.

[Panto_Villan]

Just now, Chindie said:

Its more of a semantic argument (the best type of argument) but my point is more that Ukraine can't force Russia into a position where Ukraine 'wins' - there's not a scenario where Ukraine decides this war is won, there can only be a scenario where Russia decides the war is not worth winning. Thus Ukraine's war is totally one of holding off Russia untill that point is reached. In theory Ukraine could force Russia all the way back to their established pre-2014 border, but that wouldn't be a 'victory condition' it would just be a good position to hold, but Russia wouldn't be beaten (unless they decided they'd had enough).

But it's fairly clear that that isn't going to happen. Ukrainian support is wobbling as it's allies tire and have other things to look at, Russia still has loads of stuff to chuck at the fight even if some of it is comparatively shit, and Russia isn't really in the fight just for the land anyway it's got a bigger aim, a higher purpose behind the fight that will be harder to break than just making taking territory very, very hard thus putting off an expansionary power - Putin wants to make a point and the price to stop him might not be achievable.

Fair enough - makes sense!

[chrisp65]

If I was a non NATO ex soviet state bordering Russia right now, I’d be worried about what’s coming down the track in 5 years time.

[villa89]

2 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

If I was a non NATO ex soviet state bordering Russia right now, I’d be worried about what’s coming down the track in 5 years time.

I'm not sure why all of those states and all of the small nations neighbouring China don't form their own versions of NATO. Australian, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, etc. could all form a coalition to ensure China are kept in check. The Stan's could do the same. 

[sidcow]

8 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

I think this is getting quite expensive and quite tiresome.

We should cut our losses, frame it in some way whereby we can say we won.

Then quickly move on to having a dabble in the next thing.

All the right companies have made a shit ton of money over the last couple of years, we’ve drip fed munitions to string it out to this point of stalemate, we’ve helped the bottom line on our defence industry contacts. Some of us have had photo opportunities. A couple more countries have joined NATO.

Fuel prices have permanently risen which makes new drilling more viable.

We’ve shown Putin exactly who he’s messing with, he knows he lost, he won’t be dicking with us again.

Job’s a good un, what’s next on the agenda?

 

 

Probably should have just let them Waltz straight into Kiev. Would have been a lot cheaper and easier all round. 

[chrisp65]

2 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Probably should have just let them Waltz straight into Kiev. Would have been a lot cheaper and easier all round. 

 

That would just be all negatives no profits.

[blandy]

3 hours ago, Chindie said:

Russia isn't really in the fight just for the land anyway it's got a bigger aim, a higher purpose behind the fight that will be harder to break than just making taking territory very, very hard thus putting off an expansionary power - Putin wants to make a point and the price to stop him might not be achievable.

What do you say to the view that Putin miscalculated badly in his original plan of basically just walking over any resistance and putting a puppet government in place and ever since then has been following an approach of just chucking meat at it and hoping to outlast western and Ukrainian resolve, rather than “making a point” he’s in a corner and simply (from his perspective) has to come out of it with at least something he can hold up as “victory”, otherwise he’s toast in the long run?

[villa89]

11 minutes ago, blandy said:

otherwise he’s toast in the long run?

He's never going to be toast. It's a dictatorship. Even if Russia lost all of Ukraine and Crimea he can still spin it as a victory domestically. His cronies aren't going to turn on him and the general population can't do anything to get rid of him. 

[blandy]

17 minutes ago, villa89 said:

He's never going to be toast. It's a dictatorship. Even if Russia lost all of Ukraine and Crimea he can still spin it as a victory domestically. His cronies aren't going to turn on him and the general population can't do anything to get rid of him. 

Possibly, even probably, you’re right. From his perspective though, he’s absolutely paranoid about his own security and wellbeing and position. That paranoia might vary in intensity, but it’s ever present. 

[Chindie]

6 minutes ago, blandy said:

What do you say to the view that Putin miscalculated badly in his original plan of basically just walking over any resistance and putting a puppet government in place and ever since then has been following an approach of just chucking meat at it and hoping to outlast western and Ukrainian resolve, rather than “making a point” he’s in a corner and simply (from his perspective) has to come out of it with at least something he can hold up as “victory”, otherwise he’s toast in the long run?

I've no doubt, if you went back to this times 2021, Putin didn't expect the situation we have now, and expected much more limited resistance and much less involvement of the West. But now he knows the war is one of stamina and he knows he's better placed to win that.

I'm not sure his point was going to be determined by the manner of his victory. He wants to win to reestablish the Russian sphere of influence and set out red lines for Western influence (regardless of whether that means going against the wishes of independent nations that happens to fall within where he sees that influence). He cannot accept a 'Western' Ukraine, be that in the EU or NATO. He's stopped that happening for the time being, and he's already been doing the same in Georgia. His point is to show the West he will not accept the erasure of Russian spheres of influence.

I'm not sure he feels any actual threat to himself being aligned to the status of his outcome in Ukraine. He's got the system set up to protect him, and throttles threats in their cribs. He isn't going to be thinking failure in Ukraine threatens his life anymore then any other day. To think otherwise is the wishful thinking of impotence.

[luckyeddie]

10 hours ago, villa89 said:

I'm not sure why all of those states and all of the small nations neighbouring China don't form their own versions of NATO. Australian, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, etc. could all form a coalition to ensure China are kept in check. The Stan's could do the same. 

The acronym would be difficult, maybe Japan, Australia, Philippines, South Korea, Indonesia could be JAPS I

[bickster]

12 hours ago, Chindie said:

He cannot accept a 'Western' Ukraine, be that in the EU or NATO. He's stopped that happening for the time being

Nah, if anything, he's really accelerated that process. The EU started the ball rolling a couple of days ago to admit both Ukraine and Moldova

[magnkarl]

I'd say that the signs over the last couple of days are better than expected for Ukraine. Norway, U.K, Holland, Germany and even the house of representatives in the US seem to have come to the realisation that Ukraine needs more support. The fact that Orban was essentially sent to the corridor when the vote for Ukraine and Moldova's ascension happened could be indicative of Putin's loss of power abroad.

I assume that once the US and UK decide that they've over-egged their support for Israel focus will come back to Ukraine. The 'old' wing of the republican party is all for Ukraine, so I guess the only stick in the wheel in the US is Trump and his conspiracy theorists\Russia stooges.

Olaf Scholz' speech alone the other day indicates that Germany's industry is on track to produce well for Ukraine, and he seems very committed to supporting Ukraine. NAMMO/Kongsberg in Norway are churning out 155 shells at a very accelerated speed, and hopefully the F-16's will at least give Ukraine the ability to reduce losses.

Even if the US drops out (which it seems less and less likely will happen), EU and Norway\UK have more than enough production capability to keep Ukraine from losing this war.

At this point I think it's all about Putin and Russia's very high tolerance for losing their young male population, because even in first gear and with a lot of dithering Ukraine is quite easily holding Russia's army back. The question is whether Ukraine can liberate more territory before they need to sue for peace.

[villa89]

27 minutes ago, bickster said:

Nah, if anything, he's really accelerated that process. The EU started the ball rolling a couple of days ago to admit both Ukraine and Moldova

Same with NATO, he didn't want it expanding and now more and more countries will look to join. It's interesting to see how countries like Hungary, Slovakia and Serbia evolve. You have to assume they are under heavy Russian influence and how easily they can sabotage and delay anything relating to EU politics. Orban blocking aid now, although I assume that will be passed early next year.   

[Chindie]

31 minutes ago, bickster said:

Nah, if anything, he's really accelerated that process. The EU started the ball rolling a couple of days ago to admit both Ukraine and Moldova

While that is true I suspect he's more immediately bothered about NATO. And we all know EU membership is a can that can be kicked for a very, very, very long time. And even as Ukraine got talks officially started about ascension Hungary instantly threw out discussions of aid to Ukraine as if to underline the thinking that Ukraine's entry will be very, very long winded and rocky.

[Mr_Dogg]

28 minutes ago, villa89 said:

Same with NATO, he didn't want it expanding and now more and more countries will look to join. It's interesting to see how countries like Hungary, Slovakia and Serbia evolve. You have to assume they are under heavy Russian influence and how easily they can sabotage and delay anything relating to EU politics. Orban blocking aid now, although I assume that will be passed early next year.   

Serbia are not in th EU. And while they have been traditionally aligned with Russia they are quite far from supporting them on the Ukraine war.

[AVFC_Hitz]

The removal of the Soviet Army monument in Sofia. 

While not directly Ukraine related. This is huge news at the moment.

 

[LondonLax]

On 13/12/2023 at 19:26, Panto_Villan said:

Yeah. The unfortunate truth is that Russia has slowly and inefficiently set up a war economy, whereas the West hasn’t bothered. If the West (and Europe in particular) doesn’t get serious about manufacturing munitions then Ukraine is going to lose eventually.

You say this blithely but would any western population vote for a government that was willing to set their country up as a war economy? If people thought the cost of living crisis was difficult before I can’t imagine us taking it to the next level and bringing in war time conditions, that would surely be political suicide?

[Panto_Villan]

25 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

You say this blithely but would any western population vote for a government that was willing to set their country up as a war economy? If people thought the cost of living crisis was difficult before I can’t imagine us taking it to the next level and bringing in war time conditions, that would surely be political suicide?

Of course, but the point is that we don’t actually need to go to a full war economy. Our collective GDP absolutely dwarfs Russia and we don’t have the same level of corruption and incompetence as they do.

If the collective West (or even just the UK and EU) decided to commit 0.5% of GDP to funding the Ukraine war then we’d easily outproduce Russia’s war economy. And most of that money would be spent locally too.

One thing I’ll say for the UK is we’ve signed a big deal with BAE for 155m artillery ammo that is allowing us to to increase our domestic shell production by 800%, so we’re actually pulling our weight in that respect. I think next year we’ll be producing well over a million shells a year. If the other large countries did the same then Russia could never compete.

[magnkarl]

So Oryx can only find 5% of the donated heavy equipment given to Ukraine in non recoverable or recoverable losses, and the Welt newspaper is running with the idea that they're still holding off on using it until next summer which in some circles it is believed to apparently Zaluzhnyi’s plan all along.

I don't know if it's cope, if it's down to Ukraine not actually having received the promised military aid or if it's a mixture of truth and clinging on to as many straws as you can.

Here's what Euromaidan writes about it

Quote

Welt adds that Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi only agreed to the summer counteroffensive for political reasons. According to Welt, the commander-in-chief did not see a path to success without sufficient air support. Therefore, he replaced the armored offensive with assaults by small infantry units.

The journalists believe a rapid breakthrough was impossible without mechanized support, so Zaluzhnyi’s substitution was a prudent move. His attacks by small detachments preserved his soldiers, Western armaments, and bought crucial time.

“Ukraine is likely gathering resources for a new counteroffensive next year,” expert Lange stated.

Welt stresses that in the South, Ukrainian naval units are holding and expanding a bridgehead near Kherson on the Russian-occupied bank of the Dnipro River. From here, it is only 60 kilometers to the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula. This has been a weak point for the Russian army since Ukraine forced the Black Sea Fleet to withdraw from the area and destroyed important air defense systems and other Russian military installations.

The German publication adds that one offensive direction could be this Kherson Oblast bridgehead.

“With the necessary fighter jets, attack helicopters, and drones, Ukraine could adequately support its troops’ advance, especially since there are hardly any Russian fortifications in this area. It could be a counteroffensive as Zaluzhnyi probably envisioned from the very beginning,” the journalists said.

 

 

Edited December 16, 2023 by magnkarl