Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[LondonLax]

If Ukraine does take Crimea back it will be back to fighting a well funded and well motivated insurgency (and the same in Donbas). 

This doesn’t “end” neatly for either side, it will be more like Northern Ireland in the 70s/80s for the next however many decades.

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Strange happening an flightradar24 

An Azerbaijani airliner from Baku to Tel Aviv is presently heading in completely the wrong direction and has entered Ukraine.  
 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

[Panto_Villan]

11 hours ago, sidcow said:

Who is buying their gas at the current crazy high price though? A constantly reducing number of countries. Most of it they're just burning off or selling cheap to third world countries. 

Maybe they haven't been hit yet but from now on forwards their usual customers will be buying less and less each year till it reaches nil as they switch sources and accelerate plans to use alternative energy anyway. 

So they either invest billions in new long distance pipelines to far Eastern customers who will probably never be able to pay what Europe did, or they flog it off even cheaper so ship and tanker fleet's can shift it. 

Either way they are absolutely **** in the medium to long term. 

I’ve mentioned this before but gas is only like 10-15% of the value of their oil exports. Gas revenue could fall to zero without causing Russia too many problems in the grand scheme of things.

So while Russia is running out of places to send their gas, oil is much easier to transport and China and India are both happy to buy as much oil as Russia can pump, provided its at a bit of a discount.

The reason there’s no worldwide ban on Russian oil is because nobody except the West would pay any attention to it, so it won’t work. The sanctions are doing plenty of damage to Russia’s economy but they’re never going to be ruined to the level you seem to be expecting.

By the way, even if the whole world moves to clean energy and electric cars, there’s still a lot of uses for oil that won’t dry up. Plastics production, etc. Oil will still have value in 50 years.

[CVByrne]

8 hours ago, bickster said:

In a survey conducted in 2013 only 2% of Crimeas population spoke Ukrainian yet 20% of the population identified as Ukrainian. Even Russias own bogus census in 2014 had the Ukrainian + Crimean Tarter population combined at 28% though the last proper census in 2001 had those combined ethnicities at 35% Yes it has a majority of Russian speakers but its actually at one of its lowest post-WWII levels. I also imagine a lot of those Russian speakers that aren't connected to the military / Secret Services etc would rather be Ukrainian moving forward. A lot of the ones that are connected to the Military / Secret Services / Govenment have already left, not just recently but even just before February this year as those with an inkling of the future started to sell their homes. Recently Crimean homes have been selling for buttons with the mass exodus that has been taking place

It's going to be hard to take Crimea but not impossible. Once Ukraine reach the Black Sea Coast around Mariupol and retake Kherson, Crimea will essentially be f***ed. The Kerch Bridge will be in range and they can cut off Crimeas water supply from the Dnipro. Crimea doesn't have a real water supply of it's own and once the Kerch bridge is down, it's cut off from the Russian mainland

I also don't think NATO countries will be too happy if Russia kept hold of Crimea

There would be no end to the war though. Russia would just keep attacking Ukraine from inside Russia. Ukraine couldn't attack Russia as they would respond with tactical nukes in that situation. I also don't think Ukraine would try inflict such pain on the population of Crimea by cutting off water supply and trying to starve the population out.

I don't see a solution other than a ceasefire where Crimea stays occupied. I think Ukraine might accept the Donbas occupied too.

[bickster]

25 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

There would be no end to the war though. Russia would just keep attacking Ukraine from inside Russia. Ukraine couldn't attack Russia as they would respond with tactical nukes in that situation. I also don't think Ukraine would try inflict such pain on the population of Crimea by cutting off water supply and trying to starve the population out.

I don't see a solution other than a ceasefire where Crimea stays occupied. I think Ukraine might accept the Donbas occupied too.

Once Russia is out of Ukraine, they will not attack Ukraine again as Ukraine will join NATO

[Enda]

13 hours ago, CVByrne said:

Though tbf Crimea was massively pro Russian before it's annexation and nearly totally Russian speaking. 

Nearly everyone in Ireland is English-speaking.

[CVByrne]

25 minutes ago, bickster said:

Once Russia is out of Ukraine, they will not attack Ukraine again as Ukraine will join NATO

This is really wishful thinking. 

[Genie]

Would NATO let them join with Crimea being contested?

[CVByrne]

22 minutes ago, Enda said:

Nearly everyone in Ireland is English-speaking.

What I mean is Crimea, only 54% voted for independence from Russia in 1991. 81.6% voted for Janukovic, 94% of Crimea is Russian speaking. Crimea is a significant majority ethnic Russian place. 

It has been under Russian control for nearly a decade now. I cannot see a solution where it doesn't remain that way

Edited September 18, 2022 by CVByrne

[Enda]

1 minute ago, CVByrne said:

What I mean is Crimea, only 54% voted for independence from Russia in 1991. Only 81.6% voted for Janukovic, 94% of Crimea is Russian speaking. Crimea is a significant majority ethnic Russian place. 

I know yeah, I agree it’s “multiple identity area” if we want to call it that. But the entirety of the post-War consensus is based on territorial integrity. Russian tanks rolled in a couple years back. We can’t just use ex post justifications on language usage to offset that.

[CVByrne]

1 minute ago, Enda said:

I know yeah, I agree it’s “multiple identity area” if we want to call it that. But the entirety of the post-War consensus is based on territorial integrity. Russian tanks rolled in a couple years back. We can’t just use ex post justifications on language usage to offset that.

Technically post War Crimea was part of Russia until it was gifted to Ukraine in 1954

[Enda]

Ah jaysis. Yes and the USSR broke up. We’re not debating about Yugoslavia here. The relevant timeline for territory here is unambiguously 1991.

[CVByrne]

10 minutes ago, Enda said:

Ah jaysis. Yes and the USSR broke up. We’re not debating about Yugoslavia here. The relevant timeline for territory here is unambiguously 1991.

My point is it's not that simple. What about Tibet, should we start with post Chinese annexation for that? 

Russia and China don't care about what rules we may want them to follow. I don't see Russia ever accepting Crimea returning to Ukraine and would mobilize and potentially use tactical nukes to defend it

[Rolta]

2 hours ago, Panto_Villan said:

I’ve mentioned this before but gas is only like 10-15% of the value of their oil exports. Gas revenue could fall to zero without causing Russia too many problems in the grand scheme of things.

So while Russia is running out of places to send their gas, oil is much easier to transport and China and India are both happy to buy as much oil as Russia can pump, provided its at a bit of a discount.

The reason there’s no worldwide ban on Russian oil is because nobody except the West would pay any attention to it, so it won’t work. The sanctions are doing plenty of damage to Russia’s economy but they’re never going to be ruined to the level you seem to be expecting.

By the way, even if the whole world moves to clean energy and electric cars, there’s still a lot of uses for oil that won’t dry up. Plastics production, etc. Oil will still have value in 50 years.

Someone I met in Switzerland who is involved in moving oil around says we're all still buying Russian oil—they just first transport Russian oil into another port, add a few barrels from somewhere else, then label the oil as not 'Russian' but 'Whatever-port-it-is blended oil'. I believe there was an article about it in the Torygraph too.

[Only2McInallys]

From my very limited knowledge of Crimea,it was only transferred to Ukrainian control in 1954 after 200 years of Russian rule.

The major strategic value to Russia is the warm water port of Sevastopol.This port is crucial to Russia for military and economic reasons.For these reasons I can’t ever see them surrendering it unless there is a complete implosion of the Russian army.Considering they have large stockpiles of nuclear and chemical weopans I fear how they would respond.

[LondonLax]

1 hour ago, Genie said:

Would NATO let them join with Crimea being contested?

No chance. If NATO wanted to go to war with Russia it would have happened by now. 

[Xann]

27 minutes ago, Rolta said:

Someone I met in Switzerland who is involved in moving oil around says we're all still buying Russian oil—they just first transport Russian oil into another port, add a few barrels from somewhere else, then label the oil as not 'Russian' but 'Whatever-port-it-is blended oil'. I believe there was an article about it in the Torygraph too.

Well, if that were true and it's sold at inflated market prices?

We're looking at being rinsed by Putin, the fossil fuel industry and the Tories.

Press the button now Vlad, FFS.

 

[tinker]

1 hour ago, CVByrne said:

My point is it's not that simple. What about Tibet, should we start with post Chinese annexation for that? 

Russia and China don't care about what rules we may want them to follow. I don't see Russia ever accepting Crimea returning to Ukraine and would mobilize and potentially use tactical nukes to defend it

If they use nukes then NATO has no choice, they have to react and Russia will not risk that. If they did use them then an air defence system in the Ukraine could  be justifiable and further long range weapons.  

I can't see Russia ramping up anything, their troops seem to lack motivation and equipment.

[Panto_Villan]

57 minutes ago, Rolta said:

Someone I met in Switzerland who is involved in moving oil around says we're all still buying Russian oil—they just first transport Russian oil into another port, add a few barrels from somewhere else, then label the oil as not 'Russian' but 'Whatever-port-it-is blended oil'. I believe there was an article about it in the Torygraph too.

Yeah, that doesn’t surprise me at all. Quick way for a middleman (i.e. probably Turkey) to make a quick buck.

Sanctions cause damage but they don’t stop determined enemies, even if the relative power difference is immense. See Cuba, North Korea, Iran and now Russia for examples of this. They’ve got even less chance of working on China if it comes to it.