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Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine


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1 hour ago, sidcow said:

There are not enough posts in here for my liking 

I need to see more news about Russian capitulation please VT. 

I feel like a Junkie not getting enough of a hit. 

Due to OPSEC, there is not a lot of confirmed news out there nor is the much in the way of things blowing up, most of the relevent vids are most definitely NSFW

But here's some news of advances, no one really knows when they were from but they haven't been announced previously nor still aren't officially. The Russians seem to have chucked everything at the defence of Lyman

Both those villages are on the left bank of the Siverskyi Donets river, which was thought to be the line of contact the Russians had fallen back to, so both are significant evidence of further advances and I think I'm right in saying that the Siverskyi Donets is the last major water channel between the Ukrainian troops and the Russian border in that direction. The Russians are fiercely defending Lyman because its on the last major supply route into Ukraine from Belgogrod. If Lyman falls it will have a further significant impact on Russian supply routes to the main Donbas fighting areas

 

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1 hour ago, CVByrne said:

What would any ceasefire agreement look like? Would Russia refuse anything that wasn't retaining control of the Donbas and Crimea? Would it involve international peace keepers from the likes of Turkey ?

Total removal of all Russian troops from Crimea and Ukraine,  pre 2014 borders basically.  There is no out for Russia,  the US / UK didn't give them the weapons and expertise for nothing.  The is a plan behind all this,  they can and will bring Russia to its knees.  Russian propaganda only works if you can eat, heat, work, & travel.  These are all going to slowly ebb away,  every day its costing them billions and they turn off their sources of income (Gas / Oil).  Its all going to go wrong.

Ukraine will go for a Russian surrender or a Russian run away and they will pretend it never happened.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, CVByrne said:

What would any ceasefire agreement look like? Would Russia refuse anything that wasn't retaining control of the Donbas and Crimea? Would it involve international peace keepers from the likes of Turkey ?

 a ceasefire would need both sides to be able to say they achieved something. I think the only thing for Russia would be if Crimea officially became Russia in exchange for buggering off everywhere else.

I don’t think Ukraine should, or will agree to that though as there’s no real upside for them.

I really don’t think there is a “deal” to done here at all. One side is going to have to lose. I know which one my money is on.

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23 minutes ago, Genie said:

 a ceasefire would need both sides to be able to say they achieved something. I think the only thing for Russia would be if Crimea officially became Russia in exchange for buggering off everywhere else.

I don’t think Ukraine should, or will agree to that though as there’s no real upside for them.

I really don’t think there is a “deal” to done here at all. One side is going to have to lose. I know which one my money is on.

You would have to wonder if there is literally anyone left in Crimea who isn't actually Russian anymore. Judging by their actions elsewhere they will have either murderer or deported East any natives from the area. Other than its strategic importance is there anything for Ukraine to gain from getting Crimea back? 

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53 minutes ago, sidcow said:

You would have to wonder if there is literally anyone left in Crimea who isn't actually Russian anymore. Judging by their actions elsewhere they will have either murderer or deported East any natives from the area. Other than its strategic importance is there anything for Ukraine to gain from getting Crimea back? 

Crimea is very important economically, it has oil and gas in abundance

There are plenty of Ukrainians in Crimea. There will also be plenty of people who no longer want to be Russian after this shitshow

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5 hours ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

Russian propaganda only works if you can eat, heat, work, & travel.  These are all going to slowly ebb away,  every day its costing them billions and they turn off their sources of income (Gas / Oil).  Its all going to go wrong.

I think I read somewhere that Russia have actually made more money from gas and oil since the start of the war than they would usually make during the same period.  Due to the crazy high price of gas which was mainly Russia’s fault.  

So in terms of income, it’s not costed them anything. 

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1 hour ago, bickster said:

Crimea is very important economically, it has oil and gas in abundance

There are plenty of Ukrainians in Crimea. There will also be plenty of people who no longer want to be Russian after this shitshow

Though tbf Crimea was massively pro Russian before it's annexation and nearly totally Russian speaking. 

So Russia will treat that as its own sovereign territory now. It's also impossible for Ukraine to invade logistically. I think Ukraine would accept Russian occupation of the region for a ceasefire at some point.

 

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5 minutes ago, ender4 said:

I think I read somewhere that Russia have actually made more money from gas and oil since the start of the war than they would usually make during the same period.  Due to the crazy high price of gas which was mainly Russia’s fault.  

So in terms of income, it’s not costed them anything. 

Who is buying their gas at the current crazy high price though? A constantly reducing number of countries. Most of it they're just burning off or selling cheap to third world countries. 

Maybe they haven't been hit yet but from now on forwards their usual customers will be buying less and less each year till it reaches nil as they switch sources and accelerate plans to use alternative energy anyway. 

So they either invest billions in new long distance pipelines to far Eastern customers who will probably never be able to pay what Europe did, or they flog it off even cheaper so ship and tanker fleet's can shift it. 

Either way they are absolutely **** in the medium to long term. 

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14 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Who is buying their gas at the current crazy high price though? A constantly reducing number of countries. Most of it they're just burning off or selling cheap to third world countries. 

Maybe they haven't been hit yet but from now on forwards their usual customers will be buying less and less each year till it reaches nil as they switch sources and accelerate plans to use alternative energy anyway. 

So they either invest billions in new long distance pipelines to far Eastern customers who will probably never be able to pay what Europe did, or they flog it off even cheaper so ship and tanker fleet's can shift it. 

Either way they are absolutely **** in the medium to long term. 

Until very recently Germany alone was still spending $3 Billion a week on Gas and Oil from Russia. Obviously that’s stopped now, mainly because Russia refused to supply rather than Germany not wanting to buy.  

But as you say, going forward there will only be a few countries left that will be buying their oil and gas long term. 

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4 hours ago, CVByrne said:

Though tbf Crimea was massively pro Russian before it's annexation and nearly totally Russian speaking. 

So Russia will treat that as its own sovereign territory now. It's also impossible for Ukraine to invade logistically. I think Ukraine would accept Russian occupation of the region for a ceasefire at some point.

 

In a survey conducted in 2013 only 2% of Crimeas population spoke Ukrainian yet 20% of the population identified as Ukrainian. Even Russias own bogus census in 2014 had the Ukrainian + Crimean Tarter population combined at 28% though the last proper census in 2001 had those combined ethnicities at 35% Yes it has a majority of Russian speakers but its actually at one of its lowest post-WWII levels. I also imagine a lot of those Russian speakers that aren't connected to the military / Secret Services etc would rather be Ukrainian moving forward. A lot of the ones that are connected to the Military / Secret Services / Govenment have already left, not just recently but even just before February this year as those with an inkling of the future started to sell their homes. Recently Crimean homes have been selling for buttons with the mass exodus that has been taking place

It's going to be hard to take Crimea but not impossible. Once Ukraine reach the Black Sea Coast around Mariupol and retake Kherson, Crimea will essentially be f***ed. The Kerch Bridge will be in range and they can cut off Crimeas water supply from the Dnipro. Crimea doesn't have a real water supply of it's own and once the Kerch bridge is down, it's cut off from the Russian mainland

I also don't think NATO countries will be too happy if Russia kept hold of Crimea

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