Hendrik Almstadt

[VillaCas]

5 hours ago, KHV said:

We are well in the top half, we spend more than Everton and more than Stoke. Our wage bill is a whopping £20m+ more than what Stoke pay!!!!!

That was true two years ago but now we are actually 12th highest payers, 9m behind Everton and 7m behind Stoke. 

[Grasshopper]

Quote

I

Time & time again clubs make mistakes on how the put together the chain that goes from "Football boss" through manager & coaches.

A club should either

1) start with a DoF type position who appoints everyone "under" him, to which he is 100% responsible for how successful the club becomes. The DoF has the responsibility of changing his "team" as and when people fail him.

The football side is his concept and he falls on his own sword.

or

2) A club has a good manager in place and he chooses his "team" around him for and as he needs it. He is 100% responsible for the successes or failings and falls on his sword.

in other words

1) is a Southampton -> Atkins, Pottechino, Koeman..........A.N. Other who dance to the tune of "how things are done" here.

2) is a Fergie, Wenger or a Mourinho who assembles their support around them

A mis-match of "good" people who are not in tune with each other will never work.

We had Houlier who may have been a starting point for a "One direction" team of staff.

Then McLose

Lambert may have been successful with a good concept set up by others for him.

TS was a chance appointment.

However, RG may have been better under a Houlier lead club.

Someone like GT or BL may well be able to set something up for a Mr X type manager with a complementary coaching staff, which would not only stabalize the club, but also form a set-up that can develope over time without make a huge overhall when we go through the manager cycle.

Managers could be chosen who can "hop on the bus, do a job, leave.....next" with a better chance of steady improvement.

This way, a wrong choice of manager somewhere along the line, would not set us back too far.

Edited March 16, 2016 by Grasshopper

[pas5898]

Out of interest what is the difference between a sporting director and a director of football?

[KHV]

16 minutes ago, pas5898 said: Out of interest what is the difference between a sporting director and a director of football? A Director of football oversees the football strategy of the club, usually mainly deals with recruitment policy, transfers, youth set up, youth recruitment, coaching set up and scouting. A sporting director deals with facilities management like cost of running the training ground and what is spent on facilities like do we need new taring gear, new goals etc and the maintenance. He would also deal with things like travel arrangement for the squads like coach travel, hotel stays, flight costs. Human Resources of the players and staff members, contracts bonus's, tax etc. A DoF role is more squad and football orientated where as a Sporting Director looks after everything the players need so basically it's more of  an admin role if that makes sense

[BG_Villa_Fan]

6 hours ago, mwj said:

"Moneyball" if you want to call it that (or just heavy use of data), is now responsible for winning the NBA, NFL, IPL as well as what was originally written about in the book, and there are many sports betting firms like Smart odds and Sporting index making huge profits predicting the outcome of matches using this data. The fact is this is the future whether you like it or not. Whether Almstadt and Reilly are good at it is another question...

These sports are much better and thoroughly described by stats than football. Football, so far, is way behind the curve on the analytics trend in sports. 

NBA for example, which I follow religiously, tracks things like prevent defence quantifying how much defenders depress the touches, points and field goals of players they are guarding, among other incredibly sophisticated things and a huge part of the analytical data is used for decision making - from player acquisition to player development to injury prevention and recovery.

I know there are some sites that track obscure football data too, but it's still on a basic level compared to these sports you've mentioned. Someday football will catch up as well. 

[Dr_Pangloss]

IF he was heavily behind player recruitment then he deserves sacking, every single player signed last summer are either shit or have simply not delivered value for money (only one I'll give a free pass to is Amavi due to his horrific injury). 

[mwj]

10 minutes ago, BG_Villa_Fan said:

These sports are much better and thoroughly described by stats than football. Football, so far, is way behind the curve on the analytics trend in sports. 

NBA for example, which I follow religiously, tracks things like prevent defence quantifying how much defenders depress the touches, points and field goals of players they are guarding, among other incredibly sophisticated things and a huge part of the analytical data is used for decision making - from player acquisition to player development to injury prevention and recovery.

I know there are some sites that track obscure football data too, but it's still on a basic level compared to these sports you've mentioned. Someday football will catch up as well. 

That is completely false. It may have been true 5 years ago but certainly not today.

I know for a fact that football stats from companies such as Stats LLC, Disney Research (aka ESPN) and Opta are incredibly sophisticated, to the same levels of basketball, baseball etc

Edited March 16, 2016 by mwj

[pas5898]

7 minutes ago, KHV said:

A Director of football oversees the football strategy of the club, usually mainly deals with recruitment policy, transfers, youth set up, youth recruitment, coaching set up and scouting. A sporting director deals with facilities management like cost of running the training ground and what is spent on facilities like do we need new taring gear, new goals etc and the maintenance. He would also deal with things like travel arrangement for the squads like coach travel, hotel stays, flight costs. Human Resources of the players and staff members, contracts bonus's, tax etc. A DoF role is more squad and football orientated where as a Sporting Director looks after everything the players need so basically it's more of  an admin role if that makes sense

Thanks KHV,

So if this man was a glorified club PA, why is it widely mentioned he had a part to play in our failed transfers?? Surely he is NOT qualified in any way and it is not part of his job remit? 

[Zatman]

9 minutes ago, Dr_Pangloss said:

IF he was heavily behind player recruitment then he deserves sacking, every single player signed last summer are either shit or have simply not delivered value for money (only one I'll give a free pass to is Amavi due to his horrific injury). 

and Adama

[Dr_Pangloss]

Just now, Zatman said:

and Adama

Well, despite me being a massive advocate of Adama all season, I think the money spent on him could have been used much better.

[Zatman]

Just now, Dr_Pangloss said:

Well, despite me being a massive advocate of Adama all season, I think the money spent on him could have been used much better.

i wouldnt disagree but he has shown from his rare appearances that the boy has talent at least

[El-Reacho]

42 minutes ago, KHV said:

A Director of football oversees the football strategy of the club, usually mainly deals with recruitment policy, transfers, youth set up, youth recruitment, coaching set up and scouting. A sporting director deals with facilities management like cost of running the training ground and what is spent on facilities like do we need new taring gear, new goals etc and the maintenance. He would also deal with things like travel arrangement for the squads like coach travel, hotel stays, flight costs. Human Resources of the players and staff members, contracts bonus's, tax etc. A DoF role is more squad and football orientated where as a Sporting Director looks after everything the players need so basically it's more of  an admin role if that makes sense

That would indicate that he's a total scapegoat here - failing in this role would not have that big an impact on the performance of the team. Certainly not to the extent that it would leave us in the position we're currently in. I suspect however he has more to do with recruitment than that job description would indicate.

[Grasshopper]

You can NEVER get a definative good or bad from stastics in football

100% pass completion between CB & RB doesnt tell the same story as when an AM's 1 and only complete pass from 10 attempts leads to the only goal in a game.

a striker playing for Barcelona who scores 1 from 10 attempts in one game is less effective that if say Gestede scores 1 goal every 7 headers and 2 scuffs over a period of 4 games?

You can select stats to fit as and what you want to make a player "seem" good or bad.

Andy Cole scored loads for Newcastle & ManU deeming him a very effective striker.

However, Cantona said that Coles's misses with his left foot and his lack of footballing brain was the main reason why ManU didn't win CL sooner.

The stat 1-0 3-4 1-1 or 3-3 (eventual away goal rule) decide where the points go and who wins the cup game.

Question - Is there a stat that represents how a player performs when he is in a 2 man midfield playing saturday to saturday against a 3 man midfield who have played 3 games in a week compared to being in a 3 man midfield playing 3 games a week against a 2 man midfield playing saturday to saturday?

A players performance in a series of games against top sides mostly away compared to more home games against weaker opposition?

Every game has its own circumstances.

Yes over a long period at a certain level.

To predict a players future in a different league, different style and at a clubs level within that league is not something you can rely on by stats to a greater degree than conventional football wisdom and experience of what has been successful or not.

[BG_Villa_Fan]

32 minutes ago, mwj said:

That is completely false. It may have been true 5 years ago but certainly not today.

I know for a fact that football stats from companies such as Stats LLC, Disney Research (aka ESPN) and Opta are incredibly sophisticated, to the same levels of basketball, baseball etc

Perhaps this is true, I don't know, but how many professional football teams do you believe currently take advantage of the analytics/advanced stats in their decision making? 

[Stevo985]

1 minute ago, BG_Villa_Fan said:

Perhaps this is true, I don't know, but how many professional football teams do you believe currently take advantage of the analytics/advanced stats in their decision making? 

Premier League teams? I'd say almost certainly all of them, without exception.

[BG_Villa_Fan]

11 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

Premier League teams? I'd say almost certainly all of them, without exception.

I doubt it, at least the extent of it. Precisely which advanced football stats and metrics do you think they take into account? 

[mwj]

14 minutes ago, BG_Villa_Fan said:

Perhaps this is true, I don't know, but how many professional football teams do you believe currently take advantage of the analytics/advanced stats in their decision making? 

To that level? Probably not many, its an active research field at the moment, I don't know how much of it is available at a product level yet.

To a lesser level? Probably all of them. Ranieri was pictured at a Wyscout terminal at the start of the season.

[BG_Villa_Fan]

18 minutes ago, mwj said:

To that level? Probably not many, its an active research field at the moment, I don't know how much of it is available at a product level yet.

To a lesser level? Probably all of them. Ranieri was pictured at a Wyscout terminal at the start of the season.

Yep, that was my initial point - sure, there is research now, data is collected now, advances are made, but it's still in its infancy as far as I know. 

Even simple counting stats were not tracked until what? 5 -10 years ago? The aforementioned sports have data collected for 50-60 years, and in the case of baseball - over 100 years. That's a huge amount to analyze and use for data models to see which numbers make sense and which don't, what advanced stats you can draw from the raw data. In this sense football analytics has very little to work with. Unless I'm wrong and not aware of some incredible advances lately, even some of the earliest defined football advanced stats like TSR and ExG are more in the phase of research and adjustment in order to present real insight on the game. 

You seem to be interested in this, so I'd be grateful if you could point to some source for the advances in this field. It's a great discussion. Certainly better than cursing every Villa director  

Edit : I'm still unsure why you think a fluid sport like football could be just as easily described by stats as number/situational sports? Also, how could you compare advanced stats drawn from different leagues/different level of competition?

Edited March 16, 2016 by BG_Villa_Fan

[dont_do_it_doug.]

You need to define what an advanced football statistic is really. 

[KHV]

3 hours ago, pas5898 said:

Thanks KHV,

So if this man was a glorified club PA, why is it widely mentioned he had a part to play in our failed transfers?? Surely he is NOT qualified in any way and it is not part of his job remit? 

What I gave you there is what a DoF and a sporting director do. I think Almstadt was part of a committe on transfers as it was reported he clashed with Garde in January and if these reports are true then it would appear that he was involved in things he shouldn't really be involved in being just a sporting director. The only thing he should be involved in is actually arranging contracts to be signed after they have been agreed with agent/player/manager/CEO. Maybe Fox was letting him be involved too much in things he wasn't really qualified in? He followed Fox from Arsenal so it may just be a simple as Fox gave one of his pals a job who became more of a hindrance than a help. The fact he is the first one shoved out since the review kind of tells it's own story.......