chrisp65 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jareth said: god save the queen! ...the fascist regime... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted February 11, 2021 Moderator Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, chrisp65 said: ...the fascist regime... Next line's the most appropriate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dAVe80 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I've tried to link it, but trying to copy and paste the body of the article is a massive pain using my phone, and I don't want to get a slap on the wrist for a guideline breach. Take my word for it though, seek our Mark Steel's piece in The Independent from today (11th Feb) Read it, then think of me saying, "this". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted February 12, 2021 Moderator Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 hours ago, blandy said: Nah, I don’t see it like that. The tories have picked up in the polls because vaccination is going well. That’s all. According to today's MORI polls, the Tories haven't picked up in the polls - they've stayed as they were, Labour have dropped a percent and the Greens have gained one. For me that Greens point will most likely be Labour voters migrating - it's quite possible though that the Tories have hung on to voters off the back off vaccination goodwill so we haven't seen any movement from the 'soft' Tories that Starmer appears to be flirting with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 A good way to get around that is to link to a tweet then you get a preview with it 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted February 12, 2021 Moderator Share Posted February 12, 2021 7 hours ago, OutByEaster? said: According to today's MORI polls, the Tories haven't picked up in the polls - they've stayed as they were, Labour have dropped a percent and the Greens have gained one. For me that Greens point will most likely be Labour voters migrating - it's quite possible though that the Tories have hung on to voters off the back off vaccination goodwill so we haven't seen any movement from the 'soft' Tories that Starmer appears to be flirting with. Here’s the over view of all polling (smoothed) taken from https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I find the one going back to 2014 quite interesting I reckon Labour should take some lessons from whoever was in charge in 2017-2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 12 minutes ago, darrenm said: I find the one going back to 2014 quite interesting I reckon Labour should take some lessons from whoever was in charge in 2017-2018 But definitely not from the guy who was in charge in 2019? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted February 12, 2021 Moderator Share Posted February 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, darrenm said: I reckon Labour should take some lessons from whoever was in charge in 2017-2018 They should. That short, sharp rise during an election campaign (albeit against an inept opponent) came about because of several things. Good campaigning, media attention, a decent set of policies overall, and the kind of buzz that was generated by and from Corbyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted February 12, 2021 Moderator Share Posted February 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, ml1dch said: But definitely not from the guy who was in charge in 2019? It’s interesting that in both 2017 and 2019 labour got a sharp jump in polling in the run up to the respective general elections. When the wider public gets to hear them and see them. If they can do that from a stronger starting level, they win. Now, if only they could find someone who could get their level up steadily, to be much closer to the tories before an election....(yes, I know, 2015...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Zen Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 8 hours ago, OutByEaster? said: According to today's MORI polls, the Tories haven't picked up in the polls - they've stayed as they were, Labour have dropped a percent and the Greens have gained one. For me that Greens point will most likely be Labour voters migrating(...) Am I missing something here? A one point poll swing is nothing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, Michelsen said: Am I missing something here? A one point poll swing is nothing. The polls are pretty meaningless. The ones that showed a five point Labour lead don't mean they will win. The ones showing a five point scum lead don't mean they won't. Milliband had a 12 point lead in the polls in 2013 for all the good it did at the subsequent election. That's not to say that there aren't some pretty fundamental questions the current leadership should be asking themselves. There definitely are. But if they go back to having a three point lead again, that also doesn't mean everything is hunky-dory either. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, ml1dch said: But definitely not from the guy who was in charge in 2019? Exactly, I'll expand below.. 2 minutes ago, blandy said: It’s interesting that in both 2017 and 2019 labour got a sharp jump in polling in the run up to the respective general elections. When the wider public gets to hear them and see them. If they can do that from a stronger starting level, they win. Now, if only they could find someone who could get their level up steadily, to be much closer to the tories before an election....(yes, I know, 2015...) Looking at that graph it's difficult to see anything other than 2019 being a brexit election with Labour avoiding the 2nd referendum trap in 2017 and falling into it in 2019. In 2017 it split into a straight 2 party battle. In 2019 it split into 5: Tories and Brexit Party battling for the leave vote, Labour, Lib Dems and Green battling for the remain vote. When Farage stood the Brexit Party down, all of that vote went to Tories. Lib Dems, Labour and Green split the remain vote 3 ways. 1 minute ago, Michelsen said: Am I missing something here? A one point poll swing is nothing. The most recent polls aren't shown in that graph. There's a definite move from the Labour left towards Green. They're at 8% in most polls now and above Lib Dems. All it'll take is someone from the Green Party to say something positive about Corbyn and a few hundred thousand excitable activists will join the party and push the vote up. In fact, if Green were clever, they could use this to force proportional representation through. Invite anyone disaffected from Labour to join, drain Labour of members and vote which will leave Labour with no choice but to do a PR deal with Green and LD to have any power after the next election. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, darrenm said: In fact, if Green were clever, they could use this to force proportional representation through. Invite anyone disaffected from Labour to join, drain Labour of members and vote which will leave Labour with no choice but to do a PR deal with Green and LD to have any power after the next election. Sounds good to me. Also sounds like something Labour should be doing whether the Greens siphon off a load of their support or not. It's not like they're getting a majority, whichever leader they have. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Wainy316 Posted February 12, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, darrenm said: I reckon Labour should take some lessons from whoever was in charge in 2017-2018 Steve Bruce? 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 In fact, this is laughably stark 2017: The Tories went down while Labour gained from everyone. This was when Labour was backing brexit, albeit a softer one than the Tories. 2019: Labour supporting a 2nd referendum this time couldn't take anything off the Tories, instead they had to rely on gaining from the Lib Dems, which they did. But the funny part is that if you snipped the jade line and turned it upside down, it would fit almost exactly over the Tory increase. The same with the orange line; turn it upside down and it matches Labour's increase. Actually, I've done it: Now that Starmer isn't getting the party polling any higher than Corbyn, I think we can put to bed the notion that the leader being unpopular hindered Labour. The 2019 GE was a defacto 2nd referendum and leave won because remain couldn't get their act together. Fancy that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted February 12, 2021 Moderator Share Posted February 12, 2021 54 minutes ago, darrenm said: Labour supporting a 2nd referendum this time couldn't take anything off the Tories, By that time, no one knew what the Labour policy on Brexit actually was, it changed daily 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted February 12, 2021 Moderator Share Posted February 12, 2021 39 minutes ago, darrenm said: Now that Starmer isn't getting the party polling any higher than Corbyn There's another interpretation of your (longer) post. In the period of the larger graph, there are 3 occasions where Labour gained vote share - both election campaigns, sharply during '17 & '20 and then consistently when Starmer took over from Catweazle (co-inciding with the Tories making a mess of the fungus plague). To me it looks like the wider exposure they get during elections coupled with Corbyn's relatable campaigning style - it is one thing he's good at - led to the two sharp rises. Starmer has taken Labour back to where it historically meanders, from a very low point. We can't know what the fallout from the ongoing pandemic clusterpork will be for the Tories - maybe Labour will benefit, maybe they won't. Maybe once it's over the negatives from Brexit will give the opposition a boost, maybe they won't. But Labour has got back to where it usually sits, and there's something there for Starmer and the LP to build on. The last "project" more than ran it's course and ended up with the Tories, yet again, in power and doing their damage. It'd be nice if they were the "enemy" not different parts of the LP or whoever. Starmer could do with being more strident in criticising the messes made by the Tories and once they get their conference thingy where they can come up with their policies, to start pushing them. At the moment, this kind of thing he's doing around trying to appeal to the northern voters who deserted Labour is not necessarily a bad thing, but it needs to be part of a wider picture, and Labour needs to decide what it wants to be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post darrenm Posted February 12, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted February 12, 2021 Always makes me chuckle I swear there's a 'someone suggested it might not be all Corbyn's fault' alarm that goes off in the mod channel 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Nothing to see here - just due process - definitely not kicking the thing into some ever growing grass. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/12/forde-inquiry-delay-suggests-labour-not-serious-on-racism-black-mps-say Detractors say it is unclear why Forde has waited until now, 10 months after the information commissioner was informed of the data breach and seven months after the report was initially due to be delivered, to warn of the risk of prejudicing the external investigation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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