The Chairman Mao resembling, Monarchy hating, threat to Britain, Labour Party thread

[bickster]

50 minutes ago, cyrusr said:

Current Prediction (1 July 2022) from https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html is that Labour are 16 short of a majority. Based on this though a coalition/support from Lib Dems would cover it without the need to involve the SNP; just. 

1. Their figures are a bit behind the current running average of the polls

2. If you do the User defined Prediction, you can get it to list every constituency and with the current running averages I get LAB 318 Con 238 LD 17 SNP 51 Plaid 5 NI 18 and one Indie (Devon East)

That givers Labour just 7 short of a majority BUT...

That really doesn't factor in Tactical Voting which a lot of commentators expect to happen this time around, If that does happen I expect the LibDems to gain more Tory seats than the prediction currently shows.

[cyrusr]

9 minutes ago, bickster said:

1. Their figures are a bit behind the current running average of the polls

2. If you do the User defined Prediction, you can get it to list every constituency and with the current running averages I get LAB 318 Con 238 LD 17 SNP 51 Plaid 5 NI 18 and one Indie (Devon East)

That givers Labour just 7 short of a majority BUT...

That really doesn't factor in Tactical Voting which a lot of commentators expect to happen this time around, If that does happen I expect the LibDems to gain more Tory seats than the prediction currently shows.

Yeah I mean I did just a 2 minute Google search to get that as a general idea. Agree with all your comments and yeah tactical voting will play massively into it. To be honest I could very easily live with a Lab/Lib Dem coalition.

[Genie]

3 hours ago, hippo said:

Any leader will have his detractors over time.

Must admit I've warmed to him - whilst labour is only nominally ahead in the polls considering where they were when he took over I think he's done a decent job.

 

I’m not sure he’s done a good job. The Tories are giving away their votes rather than Labour winning/earning them.

[CVByrne]

55 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

Boris is the best thing to happen to the Labour party in years.

He's also made it very difficult to judge Starmer.

 

The same way Corbyn was the best thing for the Conservatives. 

Now Labour has come back towards the centre again they will get more votes off the Tories. Brexit isn't an election issue either so people can vote on more than a single issue.

The question is timing. If they have a new PM and he/she waits 2 years before a general election they can put distance between themselves and Boris and get past the cost of living crisis and the coming recession

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, Genie said:

I’m not sure he’s done a good job. The Tories are giving away their votes rather than Labour winning/earning them.

You have to understand what Starmer's job was. Starmer is the new Kinnock, he is there to decorbynise the Labour Party as Kinnock's job was to rid it of Militant.

The problem is, the Tories have imploded quite spectacularly and now he needs to be John Smith / Blair and Kinnock at the same time

[bickster]

1 minute ago, CVByrne said:

Brexit isn't an election issue either

Starmer clearly thinks it is

[CVByrne]

2 minutes ago, bickster said:

Starmer clearly thinks it is

In 2 years time I can't see it being an issue that the will be important electorally 

[bickster]

1 minute ago, CVByrne said:

In 2 years time I can't see it being an issue that the will be important electorally 

I think you are absolutely wrong. The disaster isn't going away

[hippo]

29 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

In 2 years time I can't see it being an issue that the will be important electorally 

Im sure it will be for many years to come

"Labour will surrender to the EU"  will be doing some heavy lifting for a few years yet.

[blandy]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

I think you are absolutely wrong. The disaster isn't going away

That's true. In terms of political parties though, there's surely a slant - because there's no way the Tories will flip to "rejoin" or any other kind of movement towards the EU. So that means for anyone Brexit is an issue for, or where they think Brexit is to blame for their problem(s) then in Scotland they have the SNP who are already in charge. So no change there. In England and Wales if they reject the Tory Brexit enthusiasm, they have either the LDS, greens or Labour. Labour says they won't rejoin or join the SM, so that leaves the smaller parties. Who aren't going to become the Gov't and reverse Brexit.

Labour's message of "the tories **** up Brexit, we'll fix it" (they won't, but they might alleviate some of it) together with the actual symptoms of Brexit (tanked economy etc.) is likely to be seen by many casual voters as the most pragmatic choice, or I guess that's what labour hope.

[OutByEaster?]

2 hours ago, CVByrne said:

The same way Corbyn was the best thing for the Conservatives. 

I think Corbyn was despised by a section of Tory voters who saw him as the anti-wealth anti-christ - but he was popular with the majority of the public, he came really close to toppling both a Tory government, pretty much all of the established media and much of his own party on the strength of how well his policies chimed with the public. Unfortunately popularity with the public isn't what wins elections - it's how you and your policies are presented to the public by the media and by money that gets you power and by the time he was ousted, he had more knives in him than Miller & Carter.

Boris has lost both the media and the public, in a peculiar way - he's done what they wanted, but he's not offered any subtlety to the values of power - he's taken the everything for me and f*** you energy of the banks and personified it rather than hidden it - and now the knives are out.

Starmer has made a bet that if he can keep business and money happy, it won't really matter if anyone likes him or if he has any policies - he's a perfect fit in terms of timing of opportunity and opportunist. The Tories will be sad that he's not someone that could potentially replace Boris, he's perfect for the role - business as usual with a sheen of calm professionalism.

I'd have Corbyn back over him in a heartbeat. 

 

 

 

[bickster]

3 minutes ago, blandy said:

That's true. In terms of political parties though, there's surely a slant - because there's no way the Tories will flip to "rejoin" or any other kind of movement towards the EU. So that means for anyone Brexit is an issue for, or where they think Brexit is to blame for their problem(s) then in Scotland they have the SNP who are already in charge. So no change there. In England and Wales if they reject the Tory Brexit enthusiasm, they have either the LDS, greens or Labour. Labour says they won't rejoin or join the SM, so that leaves the smaller parties. Who aren't going to become the Gov't and reverse Brexit.

Labour's message of "the tories **** up Brexit, we'll fix it" (they won't, but they might alleviate some of it) together with the actual symptoms of Brexit (tanked economy etc.) is likely to be seen by many casual voters as the most pragmatic choice, or I guess that's what labour hope.

Absolutely agree that this is the Labour Party logic, I just think it is flawed.

I don't even think it's tactically sound, they are fighting for the votes at the far end of the Tory voting spectrum, they should be concentrating on the votes at the near end of that range. Europhiile not phobe if you like. And they are the hardest votes to win

Labour as well as the Tories are actually pushing people to vote for the LibDems. It's quite a strange tactic.

I'm sure they've done their constituency by constituency research and only they know what that says but it just seems like very flawed logic to me  and seems to be somewhat obsessed with retaking particular seats and I think in the current climate, a lot of those seats would naturally come back to Labour anyway. Firstly because a lot of those "Brexit Type" voters won't even vote next time around and secondly because this Govt is such a F*** Up

[OutByEaster?]

35 minutes ago, blandy said:

Labour's message of "the tories **** up Brexit, we'll fix it".

I'm not sure this is Labour's message.

At the moment, there's been a sort of gentle hint that the Tories haven't done a good job on Brexit, but there's been no hint of a plan that Labour might fix it.

 

[OutByEaster?]

I think the value isn't in taking the 10% of voters that might be persuaded to move from Tory to Labour.

The value is in finding ways to engage with the 40% of people that don't both voting at all - give those people a reason to get involved and you're going to win elections.

 

[bickster]

Just now, OutByEaster? said:

I think the value isn't in taking the 10% of voters that might be persuaded to move from Tory to Labour.

The value is in finding ways to engage with the 40% of people that don't both voting at all - give those people a reason to get involved and you're going to win elections.

 

I think there's a misconception that its the same 40% that don't vote each time

[CVByrne]

2 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

I think Corbyn was despised by a section of Tory voters who saw him as the anti-wealth anti-christ - but he was popular with the majority of the public, he came really close to toppling both a Tory government, pretty much all of the established media and much of his own party on the strength of how well his policies chimed with the public. Unfortunately popularity with the public isn't what wins elections - it's how you and your policies are presented to the public by the media and by money that gets you power and by the time he was ousted, he had more knives in him than Miller & Carter.

Boris has lost both the media and the public, in a peculiar way - he's done what they wanted, but he's not offered any subtlety to the values of power - he's taken the everything for me and f*** you energy of the banks and personified it rather than hidden it - and now the knives are out.

Starmer has made a bet that if he can keep business and money happy, it won't really matter if anyone likes him or if he has any policies - he's a perfect fit in terms of timing of opportunity and opportunist. The Tories will be sad that he's not someone that could potentially replace Boris, he's perfect for the role - business as usual with a sheen of calm professionalism.

I'd have Corbyn back over him in a heartbeat. 

 

 

 

Corbyn was always unelectable. The electorate were stuck between a rock and a hard place. We had the Brexit Tories and Marxist takeover of Labour. An awful situation to be stuck in with literally nobody to vote for and people deciding on the lesser of two evils. It was a really horrible time for the country. 

I have a strong dislike of the extremes of "left" or "right". Unfortunately we now have culture wars and identity politics thrown in with fiscal policies. I like coalition governments because it inbuilds compromise into government and leads to less extremes in government. 

Corbyn was the absolute disaster that lead us to Boris. Fighting extremes with extremes is doomed to failure and harms the country badly. I just want a decade of Labour / Lib Dems coalition and keeping the Tories and the SNP as far away from government. 

I just want some stability and some consistency of government policies over a longer period of time. 

[Chindie]

Labours position on Brexit is to stare blankly past you, before coming to with a breathless '...oh, Brexit, yes...' and walking away.

[Xann]

Starmer may be trying to sneak past the media into office by not thrreatening the wealthy parasites' gravy train?

Otherwise he's a prick.

[picicata]

2 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:

I'm not sure this is Labour's message.

At the moment, there's been a sort of gentle hint that the Tories haven't done a good job on Brexit, but there's been no hint of a plan that Labour might fix it.

 

Really? I kind of took from the speech the other day that they will look at becoming much closer to EU without actually joining again. Basically the Norway model.

[chrisp65]

6 hours ago, CVByrne said:

In 2 years time I can't see it being an issue that the will be important electorally 

**** hell lad they still bang on about the war and that rigged World Cup win.