Villarocker Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Out of our remaining games, we took 13 points from the next 14 fixtures in the same games last season. Burnley is an unknown. Say we took the same this time around, plus 3 points from Burnley, that would give us a total of 38 points at the end, probably enough to stay up. However, the more damning statistics are these: Last season we were 8 points clear of the bottom three at this stage, compared to being only 3 points above the bottom three this time around. We finished only 5 points above the bottom three last season, meaning we lost 3 points of the points difference that we had at this stage. A comparative return would leave us on level points with the team finishing 18th, which would mean it coming down to goal difference. The three teams with the worst goal difference in the league at this stage last season all went down - Cardiff (-23), Fulham (-28) & Norwich (-17). At this stage last season, only one team had scored less than the teams that were relegated - Palace with 15 (went on to stay up with a -16 gd). The relegated teams had scored - Cardiff (17), Fulham (22) & Norwich (18). We only took 11 points from our final 15 games last season. The same return this season would see us finish with 33 points. Norwich finished 3rd bottom last with 33 points. We certainly need people at the Villa to wake up and see that this season we are in a serious relegation battle and definitely not too good to go down. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Statistically our odds for survival actually improved with this weekends results. 16th. is the most likely position atm. Out of interest, what's the analysis that backs up this statement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I'm guessing that it's simply one less game to play and the teams below us did not catch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AntrimBlack Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I'm guessing that it's simply one less game to play and the teams below us did not catch up Well, he is correct in that of course, but I, probably like Briny, wondered where the 16th came from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Where's Levi when you need him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyGray1985 Posted February 2, 2015 Visiting Supporter Share Posted February 2, 2015 Just comparing statto odds with before the weekend. Went from 3,5 to 4 and still most likely 16th on points forecast. Not my own special system, but the one with highest correlation between forecast and results that I'm aware of. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marka Ragnos Posted February 2, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted February 2, 2015 Just comparing statto odds with before the weekend. Went from 3,5 to 4 and still most likely 16th on points forecast. Not my own special system, but the one with highest correlation between forecast and results that I'm aware of. Sounds about right to me. Don't think we'll go down, personally, but this year feels closer to last -- and that was bad enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 There is a real threat now imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetrov Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 We don't score many goals - so any victories we do secure are likley to be 1-0 or maybe 2-0 We don't keep many clean sheets so chances of 1-0 nils are significantly reduced Its looking grim ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Just comparing statto odds with before the weekend. Went from 3,5 to 4 and still most likely 16th on points forecast. Not my own special system, but the one with highest correlation between forecast and results that I'm aware of.Somehow that doesn't give me too much comfort! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 (edited) Here are the remaining fixtures. I have underlined the away games we need to get something out of and highlighted the home games. Of course football's not played on paper and upsets happen but realistically if we are to stay up we are going to have to improve our home form hugely. Something which seems to be beyond Lambert. The poor run of Xmas results when we had easy games could well be the reason we go down. After the Chelsea game we have 6 reasonable fixtures and we really need to get 10 points or more from those 6 games. Aston Villa V ChelseaHull V Aston Villa Aston Villa V StokeNewcastle V Aston Villa Aston Villa V West BromSunderland V Aston Villa Aston Villa V Swansea Man Utd V Aston Villa Tottenham V Aston Villa Aston Villa V QPR Man City V Aston Villa Aston Villa V Everton Aston Villa V West Ham Southampton V Aston Villa Aston Villa V Burnley Edited February 3, 2015 by villa89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeilS Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 We need to start by grabbing a point against Chelsea, and hopefully a goal as well just to break the run if anything. Then we have to hope the addition of Gil and Sinclair start to pay off. So far they haven't had the chance to play together against the also rans in the PL, so it remains to be seen whether they will make the difference required. To be fair, they can't do a lot worse than those who held their places before them so I have a little hope. I think (and this is a big if),IF we can get Vlaar and Senderos fit, then we will probably get enough points on the board. Clark and Okore have done ok, but they struggle against the top quality players and I would prefer the experience of Vlaar and Senderos at the back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 We need to start by grabbing a point against Chelsea, and hopefully a goal as well. I'd take a goal if I was offered it now never mind a point to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AntrimBlack Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I am more worried about relegation at this point than I have been in any of the last 3 seasons. We are in a real tail-spin, and I am not sure that we can get out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyGray1985 Posted February 3, 2015 Visiting Supporter Share Posted February 3, 2015 Just comparing statto odds with before the weekend. Went from 3,5 to 4 and still most likely 16th on points forecast. Not my own special system, but the one with highest correlation between forecast and results that I'm aware of. Somehow that doesn't give me too much comfort! Any help that it predicts a total of 37 points and a 4 point advantage over 17th after 38 games? QPR, Hull and Leicester to go down and Burnley scraping home by a single point. The exact odds are 4,3 btw - so a little extra comfort there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Just comparing statto odds with before the weekend. Went from 3,5 to 4 and still most likely 16th on points forecast. Not my own special system, but the one with highest correlation between forecast and results that I'm aware of. Somehow that doesn't give me too much comfort! Any help that it predicts a total of 37 points and a 4 point advantage over 17th after 38 games? QPR, Hull and Leicester to go down and Burnley scraping home by a single point. The exact odds are 4,3 btw - so a little extra comfort there Does the forecast mention when our next goal is coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeilS Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 We need to start by grabbing a point against Chelsea, and hopefully a goal as well. I'd take a goal if I was offered it now never mind a point to be honest. I was talking a point minimum. I have put a quid on at 9/1 for a Villa win, it is going to happen i tell you. Reality is i will never see that £1 again, would probably have had better luck buying a scratch card. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvfcTheObsession Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I really don't like the look of our final 5 games of the season. City, Everton, West Ham and Soton are all good sides, I expect Everton to be firmly on track for a top 10 finish by then and the others have all been impressive this season. The only game out of our last 5 I fancy us to get something out of is Burnley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyGray1985 Posted February 3, 2015 Visiting Supporter Share Posted February 3, 2015 Just comparing statto odds with before the weekend. Went from 3,5 to 4 and still most likely 16th on points forecast. Not my own special system, but the one with highest correlation between forecast and results that I'm aware of. Somehow that doesn't give me too much comfort! Any help that it predicts a total of 37 points and a 4 point advantage over 17th after 38 games? QPR, Hull and Leicester to go down and Burnley scraping home by a single point. The exact odds are 4,3 btw - so a little extra comfort there Does the forecast mention when our next goal is coming? It's an adaptive model, so it'll only correlate odds for the next game. Villa to score is around 10ish to 1 (but you can't get that in the market). Statistically I'd guess (without any data) we would be due one against Hull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Risso Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Does the forecast mention when our next goal is coming? October. Home to Leeds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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