tomsky_11

Ah, I was gonna get last minute tickets but weather put me off the drive from Brum. Thought about doing Manchester today but left it too late. Might try and do the final UK date in London end of April now. New stuff sound good? Seen them a couple of times, the first at a festival I think not long after first album came out and had never heard of them. They were the absolute standout from the festival, absolutely class live. Second was the second album tour.

No idea regards Newcastle's forwards beyond what I can see in the stats (apart from being well aware that Joelinton has been used at centre mid a fair bit), but Buendia coming "very deep" doesn't seem right at all. How many times have we seen him chasing the ball round the oppo's back line, pressing further forward and with more intensity than Watkins or Bailey? This happens alot. And statistically he attempts more tackles that any of the players we are talking about in the final third, which kinda back's this up. I think we've strayed some what from my original point on Newcastle, which is I think they show a reasonably similar path to what we might see. Apart from I think we are starting from a better place with a more experienced manager, so I don't think the volume of signings needs to be quite as great. Don't see it unless we are cashing in on Konsa, or Carlos is a disaster, which doesn't seem likely to me unless he ends up with another serious injury. I just don't see major outgoings given the current squad size, the way they are playing, or from the financial side of things. There's a whole bunch of players out on loan or unfancied that we'll be looking to shift first. And a fit and well Carlos I'd assume the club consider to be a level above Mings. And if we aren't replacing Mings, which I'd say is pretty clear from his new contract, then Carlos isn't being dropped either. I think there's a pretty solid partnership to be built there for the next few seasons. Then we might be looking at who steps in next, whether that be Konsa, a new signing, or one of the highly rated youths has perhaps made great leaps. Don't see the conservatism in Carlos' passing either. Stat seem to show a pretty varied passing range, 70-90 percentile for medium and long passes with decent conversion rates. Buendia's defensive work is solid and his chance creation is good. Given we have him, Coutinho and Ramsey again I just don't see a priority here. McGinn short passing has always been an issue, hence why we should have never been playing him so deep under previous managers. But that's much less an issue further forward, as a 10 or in the role he's in now where he is excelling. Similar to Buendia he's got good defensive workrate for the press and can create chances at a good level. For me it's the Bailey second striker role and right back as tier 1 priority, for similar reasons: minimal alternatives/squad depth and existing option, though good enough players, perhaps not best suited to the set up. They are the easiest positions where we can spend money to get high quality, more suitable players in, while still having squad space to retain the existing first choice players as alt/rotation options. Then it's go big on 1/2 of three positions: right side AM, ST, DC. All of these I think we have good enough first choice and/or they are performing well under Emery. But there is capacity in the squad to bring in extra players and have the existing players in these positions still well involved. I say 1 or 2 because I think the likely budget and the likely spend to bring in significant improvements in these areas will be pretty well used up with 3/4 signings. For any of the above positions it has to be bringing in to go into the first XI and improve what we already have. After this, there's maybe only one position we need a depth fill and would struggle to replace the current starters, which is centre mid. Like you say, I think Iroegbunam might be a good fit here if deemed ready and he would actually see minutes. Anything beyond this is sell to buy and I wouldn't be pushing for any of them: GK DC DL MC AM.

Tbf it felt like he was more playing it down when asked about it (a few times) in the press conference. Was more emphasising how difficult it would be and it's not the target now, but with a good consistent run of results then maybe that changes.

That's what I figured. Presumably ends up in share premium account on balance sheet? Does this affect how the funds can be used or mean anything in particular, as opposed to how our owners have paid in at the nominal share value?

What's the impact of this on FFP? Doesn't affect the P&L.

Stats from this season don't exactly seem to tell that story. Doesn't look like much in it between Cash and Trippier. Burn looks like a centre back who can win aerials block shots and make clearances but doesn't like players running at him because he more often than not loses out. Not sure what the point here is on McGinn. He's arguably closest to the Newcastle players listed in terms of position under Emery, so the comparison is fair. Statistically only Joelinton looks close in terms of volume and effectiveness defensively. Buendia comes close in terms of volume (and ahead of everyone listed in terms of attacking 3rd challenges) but is less effective than them in terms of result of challenges (agree his size doesn't help). However, Buendia's defensive work rate is incredible, he's really not that slow off the ball, and his positioning when pressing is very smart. He's only behind Joelinton for ball recoveries and makes considerable more interceptions than ASM, Almiron and Murphy. And for someone so small and lightweight, he wins 50% more aerial duels per 90 than Almiron, ASM and Murphy put together. And I've just looked at Coutinho defensively as well. Much closer to McGinn/Joelinton/Buendia in terms of defensive volume. More effective in the tackle than anyone mentioned above. Wins more aerial duels than Almiron and ASM put together. On the ball, Buendia and Coutinho are operating as inside playmakers, not wingers. They don't need to be especially quick running with the ball. They are agile and tricky enough to beat a defender. We've seen this slow then quick thing execute numerous times pretty effectively, generally through Mings who I would not call pedestrian at all. He's not always as neat as some others, but he can play at a tempo and will attempt more risky balls that are sometimes needed than Konsa. I agree Konsa is the weaker of the two, but only in that he seems less willing to up tempo and take risks on the ball. He's pretty safe with the ball, just maybe too safe sometimes. Carlos sure is somewhat unknown following injury, but if he comes back ok (and we've got plenty of time before the summer to assess this) he'll be IMO a good fit next to Mings. Sure, he was played more on the left side at Sevilla, but that seemed more down to his partner than anything. He's had seasons in his career where he's been the right sided centre back. He's predominantly right footed. And one thing seems especially good at is switching play with long balls. Going by our play to date under Emery, it seems more useful for these to be going right to left than the other way. Assuming Carlos is back to his previous levels, a centre back replacement again is low priority. Our presumably decent but nevertheless limited budget this summer is much better used elsewhere. Agree Bailey isn't suited to the defensive requirements or the more high central position and bringing someone else into this position in the summer is high priority. From an attacking sense in our set up he would want to be wide in the 4, but that probably doesn't work left with overlapping fullbacks. Right side might work more, but like you say the defensive side isn't as strong. Not sure I follow the long ball comment. I don't see us resorting to this particularly often. And stats suggest that since Emery arrived we are just below the PL average in terms of long balls and avg completed pass distance. We were the marignally the other side of that average under Gerrard. Not sure Emery is tied to having inverted wide players both sides. He didn't operate at Villarreal like this, where he had more of a converted centre back on the right side of defence with a more out and out winger ahead, with a more similar set up to what we have now on the left side. We could see moves towards more of this asymmetrical set up this summer.

Emery in press conference definitely made it sound like weeks rather than months. Said something along the lines of "has progressed well this week, they've assessed him as no good for this weekend, if he continues to progress next week like he has this, they will assess again and he maybe has a chance", a follow up question asked then presumably its not long term, to which Emery replied something like "maybe two weeks feels like a long time for Kamara as he was playing well"

Sure they aren't conceding many. Basically the same excellent rate in the last 8 as the season so far. However 3 goals scored in those 8? From 32 in the previous 16 games? That's not pretty. I only use the comparison in the sense of similar start points, similar level of improvement shown, presumably similar budgets plus I'd expect pretty direct competition with them next season. The specific issues we need to fix are clearly different to theirs, and I think fewer. But what they have done is target and prioritise those big issues and spend to the right level for the most part to get the right level of improvement. Not rip everthing up and start again.

Are they? I wouldn't class Trippier as any better than what we have defensively. Not sure stats show any drastic difference. I'd take Trippier over Cash (or as an alternate option) because he offers better chance creation from wide plus a set piece threat, but that's it. Burn is a different type of defender as he's basically a centre back playing at full back, which may be closer to what Emery may want this summer for the right side if he is indeed trying to emulate his Villarreal set up. He obviously better aerial than pretty much any full back, but that's because really hes a 6'5" centre back. He's not so good at other defensive aspects of a more traditional fullback or a wing back role. And personally, if we are looking for a converted center back to play right back this summer, I'd hope for someone a bit better all round than Dan Burn. I haven't see enough of Newcastle's attacking players to know what they are like defensively. I remember them having a good team set up against us to press. I'd be surprise if the work rate and pressing ability of the likes of Buendia and McGinn are much behind players like Almiron, Willock, ASM, etc. Not sure I agree with much of this. We aren't looking for quick tempo from the back. We appear to be looking for more patience and the ability to then spot when gaps open, either wide or in centre mid, for us to exploit and up the pace. Konsa plays pretty safe and isn't going to launch many attacks, but at least generally keeps is in possession well. I expect Carlos will provide a more expansive range of passing while being at least as technically competent, if not better. Mings takes more risks and occassionally doesn't execute as well as he could, but he takes a lot more responsibility for the out ball and given that does it pretty well I think. Neither Konsa or Mings have been perfect in possession since Emery came in, but given the learning curve that always comes with this style of build up, it's expected they'll make mistakes, and on the whole they've done pretty well. With Carlos, Mings and Konsa, I don't see centre back being anywhere near a priority this summer. Also, centre mids who can pass the ball well and carry it as well (while also being pretty defensively sound)? That's Kamara and Luiz. We lack depth in centre mid, sure. But replacing either of these is even further down the list of priorities than centre back. I agree Bailey doesn't really suit the current set up, which is a shame because I've seen him tear teams apart at Leverkusen. But he's not quite right for the central role he's doing and the wide left is occupied mostly by the full backs (hence why I'm not sure we are looking for a left winger, if we wanted one we'd just put Bailey there). Traore not really worth mentioning, he's here to make up numbers at this point and will most likely not be here after the summer.

I don't doubt they've bought well. They've improved where they needed to. Point still stands that player for player Emery inherited the better squad and first XI, so less work to do to get it to a competitive level for Europe (like I say I think with Emery and this squad we are capable already). Even with the squads as they stand now, Emery having had two fewer windows than Howe, I'm not sure I'm taking more of their players than ours for a combined XI: Taking out the highlighted players (green 1st window, orange 2nd, yellow third) I think gives and idea of the how far behind us the squad Howe inherited was. You are adding back players like Clark, Shelvey, etc. to fill it out. And I'm not sure about the Brentford comparison. Newcastle have spent a lot more on mostly more highly rated players. They have because that's where they needed the most work. Prior to Emery we haven't because under the last two managers basically the same defence has shown itself capable of performing to a decent level. I'm not sure it's so easy to judege at this point in time, as we are clearly much improved under Emery compared to when we last faced them. While they are in somewhat of a slump.

True that's a risk. But not one that would suddenly land without our knowledge. Nor one as I understand it the club as a member of the league wouldn't have a say in. And as the team (and management! I imagine the costs of hiring and firing aren't too helpful last few years) hopefully becomes more settled I'd think we could manage some of the cost side better (eg. fewer transfers in, more extensions to spread amortisation and bring it down in a period)

Yes, I'd think so. Feels pretty similar to the way Brighton build and the analysis I've seen of that: hold the ball and wait for opposition to step out of shape, with the aim to find move the ball around them into space centrally, and go from there. It does rely on a bit of patience and picking the right moments to then up the pace. Once the space does open up and we spot the gaps to exploit we can rip through teams quite quickly. I'd hope once fans understand it's part of the strategy and not players being pedestrian or unsure what they are doing, rather quite the opposite, and that if results are maintained at the current excellent level, then they get on board. Because can definitely hear the frustration in the Holte from some that don't get it, or maybe do but just want us to lump it forward anyway.

Ha. I think the summary (which has actually longer than anticipated so TLDR: I wouldn't worry for at least another year or two) in terms of FFP is: for 21/22 and for when we publish this season's accounts we'll be easily within FFP limit. the 21/22 accounts especially will give up plenty of capacity for losses (possibly up to £100m in pre-adjusted losses) in 23/24 while still passing FFP there's a question mark about how much of those losses might already be baked into 23/24 before we add in any summer activity, if it's anything like 21/22 then it could be £80-90M, which gives some room but not much I think there are more ways in which this base position could end up better (eg. increased revenue, spreading existing book values further, player sales) than being worse If the club are saying they think they've got the capacity to spend, I think the numbers so far (ie. we'll be a long way from FFP limits based on the first two of the three year assessment period) suggest it's a reasonable statement The bigger worry might be 24/25, but if spending in 23/24 when we have the capacity to do so helps us secure European football then it should be worth it and might actually make 24/25 look better. The risk is spend and not make Europe in 24/25. That might not look so pretty.

When I say noise I'm mean the club saying they are looking to back Emery with what he needs. I don't think there's much issue with that. It's a message to the fans that we will be supporting the manager to the best of our ability. I don't think that necessarily tells other clubs that we'll overpay, any more than they might think from the wealth of our owners. We'll be looking at plenty of options in each position so if we can't do the deal we deem reasonable we move on to the next one (or more likely are negotiating multiple avenues at the same time). Beyond that regarding what's coming out of the club, the leaks are fewer than I can remember in recent times, which is impressive given use of social media and amount of information out there has only been increasing. We have, and actually more under Emery than Gerrard. But I'm not massively worried about this from a personnel perspective. It's almost the same defensive line up as we had when keeping all those clean sheets under Smith. And we were fairly consistently solid under Gerrard on the defensive end, it was the other end of the pitch that was the issue. I think the level of opposition, natural teething problems with the style we are moving towards and the individual errors from normally solid players that come with that play a big part in Emery's defensive record so far. I trust us to get better at it with the players we've already got, because they've shown it before. That not to say its impossible for us to go out and find someone new to improve things, more that for me it's not a priority at all for this summer.

A dubious goal and then a goal that doesn't happen without the prior dubious goal at that. Absolutely mad to call it a battering.

Or more pertinent, this was also fine...

Sure, the signings we make need to be good, need to improve the first XI, etc. Stuff like this... ...definitely makes it sound like you think more than a couple of players need replacing this summer though. Which I don't think is 1) achievable with our likely budget, or 2) necessary. So, how much business do you think we actually need to do in the Summer? Which positions in the first XI do you actually think need replacing? For me, from the noises the club have made, it's seems like we are going to spend big. Realistically I'd guess we are talking £100-150M range with this. For this I don't see us getting more than 2-3 players of sufficient quality to replace what we already have. Which is fine by me because like I said before, the current squad is perfoming at a level sufficient enough for Europe already if we can carry our current form, or even a slight drop in that, through to next season. I think there's some consensus on here that the second striker role is a priority, as Bailey, for all his ability, has been inconsistent and is perhaps not best suited to this role. After that, I'd be looking at right back, not because I don't think Cash is good enough, but because 1) I'm not sure he's as suited to the mould of player that Emery appears to like in this position, and 2) I think it's one of the easier positions for us to bring in a replacement and make the existing starter a rotation option. Then I think it gets more difficult, as probably looking at 2-3 positions where it's difficult to improve on, where players are performing well under Emery and/or where we already have high number of options. These being: the attacking/wide midfield positions (McGinn especially is performing well and costs little, Buendia and Coutinho more costly but improved, Ramsey cheap and lots of potential), centre back (Carlos presumably not replacable, so looking at Mings who has done well and just extended, Konsa good quality rotation/cover) striker (Watkins in excellent form, maybe lack depth but have just spent a reasonable amount on potential with Duran) I think we maybe go big in one of these areas, two at a push. After that I can't see us doing much else. I think what Newcastle have done since Howe came in is a reasonable comparison: Howe came in to Newcastle, with arguably a worse squad and first XI than us, and got 1.63ppg in 27 games. Emery getting similar from his 25 games would finish us on 53 points, which I think is a realistic target this season. This season to date, Howe has improved on his ppg last season, currently at 1.71ppg which over a season is more than enough to secure European football. Should Emery finish at least as strongly this season as Howe did in his first, I think the bar set by Howe this season is a reasonable one for us next year. Obivously this improvement has come with squad improvement. Between Jan and Summer window 2022 they've spent just over £200M, with about £100M going on 5 players that have become part of their regular first XI, while more than half the remaining £100M went on the mostly injured Isak. We've spent £30M in Emery's first window and arguably signed one regular starter for next season, but as I've already said I think Emery has inherited a better squad and first XI. Given there's less work to do on our team than there was for Newcastle, spending another £100-150M or so on 2-3 significant upgrades this summer should be enough to put us in the European places next season, possibly even make a push for 4th.

Yep agreed. I actually agreed with the view I was replying to that he, as well as others, have clearly looked better than under Gerrard. The results kind of speak for themselves. I thought it was interesting that these volume numbers were down though and so at face value could read him as being less involved when that doesn't appear to be the case. There was an article I read maybe a month ago that pointed pretty much to what you've suggested with further analysis, which showed that volume and quality of chances had barely changed from Gerrard to Emery, but what had drastically changed was efficiency in converting chances. They suggested as well that this might be down the more considered and patient build up leading to more composure in the final third. The point about specific instructions and patterns of play as opposed to just leaving it to the players is a good one too. Buendia has, like you say, 0.51GCA per 90, but still hasn't registered an assist. So he's basically always been the pass before the assist. Perhaps indicative of a more defined role.

Does it?! Without any changes at all in the Summer I'd be more confident of us getting into Europe than finishing bottom half. I'd argue the results thus far under Emery (and IMO some of what we saw under previous managers too) show the existing squad already gives us a solid base to be challenging for European places, and that we are more likely to be looking at maybe 2-3 big additions to the first XI than a massive turnover of squad. Exactly what we need now is quality to build and take forward what we have, not quantity and basically starting with our budget spread too thinly.

Given the distribution of goals and the points return under Emery compared to Gerrard, I'm not sure the view that big teams capitalise on their possession over us more than we do in possession against teams below us holds up. We are doing better in terms of % of available points won and proportion of goals scored when we have more of the ball, compared with our opponents when they do.

I don't think it's that what's on the pitch is irrelevant. It's your previous point, that they can impact the team positively, that it's a collective thing and not... but this isn't IMO just a football culture thing, it's the mentality of a lot of this country. Hard thing to be up against. As evidenced by previous attempts to improve things. At all levels. And not just regarding football.

Lower Holte here. I'm comparing to what VP is like previously, not other grounds in England, and I'd say it's noticably worse than pre lockdown. Especially given I can't remember the last time sat down during the game. Previously if the standing was constant then the atmosphere matched it, now it just feels pretty flat most of the time. And A LOT of moaning. Agree all seated doesn't help. But it's not an excuse for not trying to improve things, especially given areas like the Holte are standing for 90 anyway and its appears from the otuside like some other clubs are doing more with the same. And all seater is gone in a matter of seasons. So does the "what's on the pitch" excuse disappear at that point? Because without the kind of organising and extra effort that people are talking about in this thread, and changes to mentalities like this: ...I don't think things will change much. The atmosphere will still be highly reactive to what is deemed "good" or "exciting" or "attacking" on the pitch. I think the aim of what is being talked about here is to keep the atmosphere up at a certain level irrespective of whether the fans are sufficiently "entertained", which in turn might help the perfomance on the pitch itself. This feels even more important given what we've seen so far under Emery because how he appears to want the team to play in certain moments in order to achieve more succesful results appears so far to be at odds with what the more vocal disgruntled fans want to see, judging by the constant panic and moaning when building from the back and shouts of "get rid!", "forward!" as if the players aren't doing what they are supposed to. Your summary of the games looks like the same kind of thing. A "battering" when we've lost injury time to a highly dubious goal against possibly this season's champions in probably one of the best games at VP this season. "Boring" when we've come through a tight tactical battle. "Plodding" when we've controlled a game well and ensured a win because of it. And besides any impact on the players of this kind of thinking and resulting atmosphere, it's honestly so f'ing tedious for those of us who can see what we are trying to achieve under Emery, aren't going to s**t themselves every 5 mins because we haven't aimlessly lumped the ball forward, understand Emery's methods will take time to master, and for some crazy reason are happy with 22 points from 12 games (I know, mad right?!). To the point where, when I'm probably more excited about the future of this club on the pitch than I've ever been, I'm questioning maybe more than ever why I bother going to games.

Plenty of potential for teams above us to slip up before international break: Fulham play Arsenal. Should lose that Brentford away at Everton and Southampton and home to Leicester. Those away games have probably got harder since managerial changes and Leicester look better away than at home. Brighton away at Leeds and home to Palace. Leeds have been reasonable at home plus new manager. Should probably beat both though. Chelsea away at Leicester and home to Everton. Leicester score and concede a lot, Chelsea are the opposite. Everton tougher since Dyche arrival.

Pretty much all his creative stats per90 have dropped under Emery when compared with earlier in the season under Gerrard/Danks. Some, like xG, shot creating actions, key passes and passes into attacking areas have almost (or in some cases more than) halved.