tomsky_11

Referring to this, which doesn't mean much since we've changed manager and not played 4-3-3 since:

Carlos was signed in June after the accounting period in question. Coutinho there may be some impact. But however it’s built up, the £200m doesn’t tell us much on its own regarding ffp.

For sure I was expecting wages to stay stable. Doesn’t have any bearing on the amortisation though which must have increase more than I’d expected. Zero chance that is the case. Wouldn’t say our turnover was low either. It was higher than I expected, an only decrease from prior year because prior year was very inflated due to Covid timing impacts.

What @MrBlack said.

Adjusted EBT is submitted via this form:

Says the liability fell on the club because Tony Xia couldn't pay it.

Thought crossed my mind but haven't looked into it yet.

Maybe? Rough rough estimate: P/(L) is change is player sales from Grealish, ie. assuming £35M profit this season. Add back the RL payment. 10% increase revenue and costs incl wages. £5M amortisation increase from my previous workings for lack of any detail on 21/22 yet. Assume £20m adjustments per season for FFP means around £(20M) for 21/22 and 22/23 for FFP. With a three season allowable loss of £(105M) gives us £85M to play with in 23/24? Except would need to also keep in mind the Grealish money falling off for 24/25 calc. edit: knock £1M off the cost increase cos I've added 10% of the RL payment in that.

In my estimate last year? No, no idea that was a thing. I trying to work out now how we've got to where we are, yes: Some of that other has to be amortisation. I'd expected an increase of maybe £20-£25M previously, though my more recent estimate had it at more like £15M, which I'm guessing is a bit off. I guess maybe potential for some losses on other player sales eg. Engels, Samatta, but those won't be big. Some kind of increase in depreciation also due to Brookvale? Again not big. Loan fees could be interesting I guess with Coutinho? Though plenty of loans out that could have attracted some kind of fee also. Yep, I'd thought they could just be talking cash there. Doesn't really help understand the profit or FFP calc though.

Hmm. I predicted pre tax profit of £4M and FFP figure of £20M a while back. I think the latter figure is going to be about the same. I had lower revenue and higher wages though, so presumably amortisation has had a massive uptick way beyond what I'd expected. Club saying they spent £203.5M on player aquisitions backs this up. Most estimates for what we spent 21/22 seem to be more like £120M, so not sure how we get to over £200M?

Correct. And PPG of 1.21. And both these stats have marginally dropped since joining Chelsea. He was at 1.22 PPG and 28.3% wins (though rounded from a marginally higher value) on leaving Brighton. His seasons at Brighton look like this: 19/20 - 38 games, 41 points, 1.08 PPG, 23.7% wins 20/21 - 38 games, 41 points, 1.08 PPG, 23.7% wins (identical record to previous season) 21/22 - 38 games, 51 points, 1.34 PPG, 31.6% wins 22/23 - 6 games, 13 points, 2.17 PPG, 66.7% wins Chelsea record is 18 games, 21 points, 1.17 PPG, 27.8% wins

Agree it'll be a push to catch Brighton. And Liverpool I expect to pull away and maybe get 4th. But Brentford and Fulham are definitely catchable IMO, while Chelsea still look bad and are running out of games before a very difficult finish to the season for them.

I haven't done this via a predictor site or anything. Because I'm really cool I've a spreadsheet that looks a like this... ... which covers just the games for teams 4th to 11th. Makes it a bit easier to take into account previous results and home/away form when predicting, whereas I agree with you using some of the more common predictor sites where you click through by gameweek its harder to factor these things in. On Liverpool: - 7 games left against the teams below us. I've got them winning the two at home plus Saints and Bournemouth away. The other 3 are draws. - I've got them getting 3 points more than their current away form ppg, which given they play teams 2nd, 10th, 14th, 16th, 17th, 18th and 20th in ppg for the season in remaining away games, doesn't seem unreasonable - I've also got a 3-4 point uplift on their current home form, which is maybe a bit much given their home form is already 2.2ppg with only one lost all season. Even if they only maintain current form here they are still competing for 4th imo. - I don't think I had them as high as 67 points when I did the predictions four games ago, so they've already gained more points than I expected from those fixtures. On Newcastle: - I did feel I may have slightly overestimated them, but then they just haven't lost many games. - On the four fixtures you mention, I've got them beating Spurs at home (they beat them away, so why not), draw vs. Utd (same as away game), and losses to City and Arsenal. - I've actually only got them getting 5 more wins this season, then a lot more draws. On us, after Chelsea result today, our 53 points now gets us ahead of them into 9th, so there we go! Btw here's how my predicted ppg of remaining fixtures compares to the season to date ppg of each team: So Newcastle hitting 64 is a reasonable drop off for them.

They'll need 2ppg for remainder of season just to have a chance of 7th. Don't see it happening with their run and current form. I've got them improving their form to date and beating us and our form under Emery falling and them still not pulling away from us.

I've had Chelsea down to pick up as many points in their next 5 games as the 10 games after that. But I'd expected their results to have picked up by before now and they haven't. And they've still got champs league distraction. They flunk the next 5 and I think they are done. After that they are still to play Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd, Newcastle, Liverpool, Brighton and Brentford.

Also, about four or five games ago I had a go at predicting the remaining results for the teams currently 4th down to us in 11th. I think I had us in 9th on 56 points then. As of now the remaining predicted results give the following finishing table: 4th Liverpool 67 5th Newcastle 64 6th Spurs 62 7th BHA 61 8th Brentford 54 9th Chelsea 53 10th VILLA 53 11th Fulham 51

AAAH!! This has just reminded me that I was meant to be buying these as well.

Not sure the eras are comparable. Nor has Emery been here long enough to judge his success here. In terms of best CV prior to joining us, not sure there's much debate is there?

Yep seems like it. And fairly impactful despite much shorter stints elsewhere since.

Not quite. Became Sporting Director in 2008 as far as I can tell. Various scouting and analyst roles before that.

Wins Gerrard - BHA cry LEI nor eve Emery - MNU bha tot LEE sou Losses Gerrard - MNC liv CHE bre Emery - LIV LEI mnc ARS Draws Gerrard - MNU Emery - WOL

Slighty below par in the post winter break run but only lost the 2 points we'd made up pre winter so not a disaster. Still about on course for 53 points and I think definitely still achievable with upcoming games.

It's going to have taken until this season for Arteta to surpass the 70 points in one season of Emery's only full season with them in 18/19.

Worst losing streak of Emery's entire career is 3 games...