tomsky_11

Yeah it's a nonsense. "Winning two consecutive games just 3 times" could hypothetically refer at best to 6 wins and 2 draws in 8. In our actual case, we've had 5 wins and 1 defeat in a run of 7, then 3 defeats, then 3 wins and a draw. 8 wins and 2 draws in 14 in total. Weird to use "erratic" to put a negative spin on having taken over 60% of available points to date, form which over a full season would probably mean top 4 finish.

They were in Europe last season as well and finished 7th. With domestic cup games as well, they'd need to make the final this year to have played more competative fixtures than last season.

Obvious caveats to the data are obvious. Not sure there's much value in me pointing them out everytime. I was not under the impression I'd just predicted the future There'd been discussion previously about ppg analysis of remaining schedules. Someone had said it doesn't take variation in home and away form into account. So here's the data, with all the obvious caveats that comes with. Some of which I even alluded to in my post.

Googled UK ultras and on the first page is this article about Arsenal's new fan group. Worth a read about how the group has gained prominance, particularly how they've been facilitated by the club. Also a really important point a few have made here is in the article:

Culture and levels of fan power over club at a guess play a big part. This is an interesting point. What makes the difference where fan/ultra groups have had success in the UK? Where perhaps fan/wider culture and fan power are more similar to our situation. Which fanbases have groups closer to what you see in Europe? How did they come about and get to where they are?

Strength of remaining schedule based on home/away splits of opponent's ppg rather than total. The middle section "Schedule (points)" is the expected remaining points earned in remaining games (and then expected final points when this is added to current points) based on average total points earned per match minus the average opponent's ppg. The right hand side section (also titled "Schedule (points)") is the same as the middle section but flexed based on % over/underperformance of the listed team compared to the average expected home or away ppg. And here's the same summary, but figures for Brighton, Chelsea and us are based on performance under current management only. Obviously our excellent away form under Emery is skewing this summary a fair bit. However you look at it, Chelsea have the hardest schedule and need the biggest turnaround in form to even get close to top 7.

Still not surpassed by Arteta in any season since... ...at least for another two weeks.

Pretty average first 14 games by his standards...

Second most successful PL era Villa manager after 14 games. His next opportunity to take the top spot would be at 21 games, if he wins the next 7 in a row.

No. 19/20 - 83.6% 20/21 - 83.9% 21/22 - 84.9% 22/23 - 74.8% Maybe the PL more his level.

Anyone going to this in May? Found out about his adult swim show from VT so guess someone might be.

Just looked at the Newcastle figures and his number makes no sense if based on ppg to date at the date of the article. (The same article was published on MOMS site a few days later, between which there had been further fixtures and the later version of the article with the same numbers is changed to state the analysis was "before last night's fixtures"). There is no possible length of run in for them that averages over 1.46ppg (the last 5 games assuming rearranged Brighton fixture is one of them), unless he means the last two games (including Brighton) which I doubt. At date of article, all their remaining games were 1.35ppg

Based on current ppg yes. My predictions for the remaining fixtures have them on 53, which is shown a page or two back. As above, these numbers you've quoted are ppg under current manager based. I've got them at 61 on my predictions, which were done about 5-6 games back, so well before the rant. No. Newcastle weren't in my orginal analysis but they fell back a bit straight after so added them. Utd to far ahead of us at this point to be at all relevant so nah not gonna bother adding them unless they completely tank the next month.

Just based on the Villa figure and assuming the analysis is from the same date as the article, to me it looks either wrong or his definition of run-in is the last 10/11 games (and he's rounded down rather than to nearest 2dp) rather than "all the remaining games".

If referencing what I've just posted, as I've said above these are remaining opponent strength, so our own record is irrelevant. It technically impacts the other teams where they need to play us still, but then this gets complicated because what about all the other teams who've changed managers and may have seen drastic changes in form. All these things are using a lot of averages and assumptions anyway, they are obviously not perfect, they aren't going to definitively say "the league table will finish like this". I think what they do give a reasonable assessment of, for example, is the task at hand for us to make top 7 this season. Eg. take the home and away flexed remaining fixture analysis above, adjust the remaining expected points by the % each team is above average ppg under their current manager so far this season to give some idea of potential over/underperformance in these remaining games, add that each team's current points total and you get a final table that looks like this: So we either need to surpass our form to date under Emery or hope that at least two teams drop off and we maintain ours to make top 7.

Because a 50% difference (this is a rough estimate but as I understand it a reasonable one based on a pretty longstanding trend) in points return on average isn't insignificant and seems reasonable to take this into account. Obviously for specific teams they might have significantly better or worse home/away records and could use these team specific splits if I could be bothered this morning (I can't). He's the impact of taking out the home/away flex: Minor differences to every but Brighton and Liverpool, enough to swap them between 1st and 3rd rank. Note, this is just an analysis of the strength of the opponents, so our performance to date and those of the other teams in question is irrelevant, only the opponents' performance matters.

Not sure if I've got the maths or logic right, but I think this maybe gives some indication of fixture difficulty also taking into account the number of remaining games and the difference between home and away. I think this shows the remaining expected points for the season, based on the avg ppg to date of the opponent. Method if anyone interested/wants to pick it apart: 1. Take the average ppg of the remaining opponents split home and away as per previous post. 2. Flex this down for home games and up for away games, based on a ratio of 1.5:1 (ie. 50% more points are earned at home compared to away, on average) 3. Deduct these values from the average total points earned per game by both teams (about 2.76 based on last 10 PL seasons) to give an estimated average points earned per game by the team in question, split home and away. 4. Multiply these home and away values by the number of remaining home and away fixtures to give expected total future points earned.

Are you sure? I've just done this quickly, but unless I've messed it up, looks like Newcastle's run in is the 2nd best just of the teams placed 4th to 11th. Chelsea, Brentford and Brighton have worse than us.

Brighton should get to 60 points with their remaining games. I don't think Brentford are getting that close. Better chance than Chelsea though.

They've had 4 wins in last 18 games. They've had 4 points in 10 games against current top half sides in that time. They'd probably need 7 wins from last 11 games to stand a chance of top 7. The current league positions of the teams they still have to play: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11, 13, 16, 19.

Oh I mean Napoli are winning it anyway even if Chelsea got past Real lol

Napoli

Updated after today's games: 4th Newcastle 66 5th Liverpool 64 6th BHA 61 7th Spurs 61 8th Brentford 53 9th VILLA 53 10th Chelsea 52 11th Fulham 51 I've got 1 point from Chelsea and Leicester next two. 5 extra points to play for would make a big difference.