For the past few years, I've endeavored to periodically post results of Monte Carlo simulations of the remainder of the season. The process is essentially analogous to repeatedly running the BBC predictor and seeing how often various events come up. I've decided that with the new site, it perhaps makes more sense to have this as a blog series rather than regular comments.
5th0.1%6th0.1%7th0.2%8th0.3%9th0.6%10th0.8%11th1.3%12th2.2%13th3.4%14th5.2%15th7.4%^^^ upper quartile16th10.3%17t
A 2-0 loss at home and a pair of clubs near us in the table beating clubs at the other end of the table. Disaster?
Our chances of staying up actually slightly improved.
16th 0.1% unchanged17th 0.6% +0.1%18th 2.4% +0.9%19th 12.3% +4.1%20th 84.6% -5.1%Villa: 99.3% (-0.1%)
Sunderland: 86.9% (+8.0%)
Swansea: 43.4% (+7.4%)
Bournemouth: 28.8% (-12.6%)
Newcastle: 24.1% (+1.2%)
Norwich: 15.2% (-3.2%)
West Brom: 1.2% (-0.3%)
Chelsea: 1.1%
Dead cats apparently have a reputation for bouncing.
The relevance to Villa after a home loss to Watford may not be clear, but it is perhaps in that light that one should consider this fact:
Villa's chances of staying up improved despite a home loss to Watford. Whether the change was major (it more than doubled!) or minor (the difference was 0.3%) is a question of the observer's perspective, but the fact remains: the club are in a slightly
I want things to be stable, but not this kind of stable...
The good: Losing 4-0 to Everton didn't really hurt us.
The bad: It definitely didn't help us.
Our relgation chances stay the same, though the chances of finishing bottom increase somewhat.
17th 0.2% unchanged18th 2.1% -1.4%19th 10.2% -7.5%20th 87.5% +8.9% Median, most likelyVilla: 99.8% (unchanged)
Sunderland: 89.8% (-6.2%)
Bournemouth: 79.6% (-3.0%)
Newcastle: 18.0% (+11.8%)
Getting a draw against the league leaders was not enough to dramatically improve the Monte Carlo's estimations, but it didn't dramatically hurt things (not that things could have gotten much worse). This is not really a cause for pressing the panic button. The Monte Carlo's assessment is now just about solely based on the period when you could fairly say that other sides figured out Sherwood. Assuming that the level of performance Remi Garde brought out of the team is the new normal, as some
These numbers assume no dramatic improvement in quality of play (including, for instance, tactics), nor any new manager bounce. Additionally, as can be seen in the recent yo-yoing of the Tyne & Wear clubs' chances, it only takes one sufficiently good result to cause things to look (at least for a time) a lot brighter.
16th 0.1% -0.3%17th 0.3% -0.9%18th 2.1% -1.4%19th 10.8% -0.6%20th 86.7% +3.2% Median, maximum likelihoodVilla: 99.6% (+1.3%)
Sunderland: 84.9% (+26.3%)
The Monte Carlo results as of 30 October. The current results, Round 11, will follow in another post soon.
15th 0.1% -0.3%16th 0.4% -0.8%17th 1.2% -2.3%18th 3.5% -8.6%19th 11.4% -18.6%20th 83.4% +30.9% Median, maximum likelihoodVilla: 98.3%
Sunderland: 58.6%
Bournemouth: 53.9%
Newcastle: 41.5%
Norwich: 25.7%
Liverpool: 13.7%
Watford: 3.5%
WBA: 3.0%
Chelsea: 1.1%
Everton: 0.4%
Swansea: 0.2%
Stoke: 0.1%
It's not looking great at Villa Park, is it? 9th0.1%10th0.1%11th0.3%12th0.5%13th1.0%14th1.6%15th2.8%16th5.0%17th8.9%^^^ upper quartile18th16.2%19th27.2%median, maximum likelihoodvvv lower quartile20th36.3%I suspect that this is the most pessimistic Monte Carlo run I've ever had; right after our loss to Hull last season, our relegation probability was only around 65%. The "maximum likelihood" refers to our finish in the table that came up the most often. Relegation chances: Sunderland: 84.0% Vill
YTD: 75-109, -196.45 units (-11.58%)
Panaitolikos to win -133: risk 7 units to win 5.26
NAC Breda +1 -120: risk 7 units to win 5.83
Roma to win -375: risk 9 units to win 2.40
Roma -1.5 -115: risk 8 units to win 6.95
Metalist Kharkiv to win -160: risk 5 units to win 3.12
Metalist Kharkiv -1 +120: 6 units
YTD: 73-106, -189.96 units (-11.43%)
Reims to win +319: 5 units
Montpellier DNB +111: 6 units
Borussia M'gladbach to win -158: risk 6 units to win 3.79
Borussia M'gladbach -1 +112: 6 units
Real Sociedad +2 -101: risk 6 units to win 5.94
YTD: 71-102, -169.43 units (-10.63%)
PSG -2 +120: 10 units
NAC Breda to win +175: 8 units
NAC Breda DNB +110: 15 units
Espanyol +2.5 -105: risk 11 units to win 10.47
YTD: 69-100, -171.63 units (-11.06%)
Arsenal to win +222: 7 units
Arsenal DNB +130: 13 units
Nantes to win -142: risk 12 units to win 8.45
Nantes -1 +125: 11 units
YTD: 64-97, -207.97 units (-14.49%)
West Brom +1.5 -140: risk 10 units to win 7.14
Reims +1 -120: risk 8 units to win 6.66
Bayer Leverkusen to win -180: risk 12 units to win 6.66
Bayer Leverkusen -1 -105: risk 13 units to win 12.38
Twente -1 -135: risk 5 units to win 3.70
Antalyaspor DNB +140: 11 units
YTD: 64-94, -174.97 units (-12.47%)
Nantes DNB -105: risk 10 units to win 9.52
Heerenveen to win +115: 10 units
Heerenveen DNB -150: risk 13 units to win 8.66
YTD: 63-91, -161.37 units (-11.83%)
Hull +1 -105: risk 6 units to win 5.71
Southampton +1 -125: risk 8 units to win 6.40
WBA DNB +120: 6 units
Heerenveen DNB -135: risk 7 units to win 5.18
Atletico Madrid DNB -275: risk 7 units to win 2.54
YTD: 61-87, -149.72 units (-11.42%)
Panaitolikos to win +265: 5 units
Heerenveen to win -125: risk 7 units to win 5.60
Heerenveen -1 +135: 6 units
Udinese DNB -110: risk 5 units to win 4.54
Torino +1 +100: 6 units
Lazio DNB -225: risk 5 units to win 2.22
Amkar Perm DNB +115: 9 units
YTD: 58-81, -130.64 units (-10.43%)
Marseille DNB -130: risk 5 units to win 3.84
Man City to win -195: risk 7 units to win 3.58
Man City -1 -110: risk 7 units to win 6.36
Freiburg +2 -125: risk 7 units to win 5.60
Napoli to win -130: risk 5 units to win 3.84
PSV DNB -180: risk 6 units to win 3.33
Maritimo DNB -175: risk 5 units to win 2.85
YTD: 57-80, -134.29 units (-10.99%)
Vitoria Guimaraes +2 -145: risk 14 units to win 9.65
Malaga DNB -130: risk 11 units to win 8.46
Akhisar Belediye to win +428: 6 units
YTD: 56-77, -113.71 units (-9.61%)
Amkar Perm DNB -175: risk 6 units to win 3.42
Betis to win +295: 7 units
Betis DNB +189: 11 units
Celta de Vigo DNB +155: 6 units
Espanyol +1 -150: risk 10 units to win 6.66
Quite like Warnock as a pundit and he was a decent Villa player too.
You can tell he has an affinity for the Villa always has that feeling when he talks.
I like the 90's badge with the Claret 'n' blue strips in the background and then what it changed to. These were good at the time and was a good upgrade IMO
I'd like to see the return of the stripes
This tiny change makes that badge so much better
If you replaced the AVFC with the Aston Villa from the new badge and kept it at the top then that would be fine. And it would achieve exactly what Heck (or whoever) is trying to achieve (I assume) with the new badge: at a glance recognition of the current Villa brand/badge, but with the full name of the club represented and the lion standing out more
The Archer buyback is £9m according to recent reports in Sheffield, and their CEO has more or less confirmed those reports and that it's a done deal that he's returning. They paid £9m for him in the first place, with another £9m owed if they survive, but that's obviously not going to happen, so we have to reimburse them for the initilal fee and it essentially been like a loan deal.
Yeah he's got 0.39 xG+xAG per 90 in a team who are by far the worst side in the League. He's done well I think for his first season in Prem. He'll learn from it and improve. I wonder what our buy back obligation is, £12m or £14m or something like that possibly. I'm sure there will be PL teams interest in him this summer at those prices. Alternatively we could loan him out
I’m resigning myself to the shit show Heck badge, the accident by the Betano press release irrationally killed my hope that they can’t be that stupid thinking this modified Heck badge is the way forward. Go with a shield, fine… change the lion back, fine…but get something decent.