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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 7)


leviramsey

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It's not looking great at Villa Park, is it?

9th0.1%
10th0.1%
11th0.3%
12th0.5%
13th1.0%
14th1.6%
15th2.8%
16th5.0%
17th8.9%
^^^ upper quartile
18th16.2%
19th27.2%median, maximum likelihood
vvv lower quartile
20th36.3%

I suspect that this is the most pessimistic Monte Carlo run I've ever had; right after our loss to Hull last season, our relegation probability was only around 65%. The "maximum likelihood" refers to our finish in the table that came up the most often.

Relegation chances:

  1. Sunderland: 84.0%
  2. Villa: 79.7%
  3. Bournemouth: 55.0%
  4. Newcastle: 29.8%
  5. Liverpool: 19.8%
  6. Watford: 10.8%
  7. West Brom: 7.6%
  8. Swansea: 6.5%
  9. Norwich: 4.0%
  10. Palace: 1.5%
  11. West Ham: 0.8%
  12. Stoke, Southampton, Everton, Chelsea, Arsenal: 0.1%

This is the first run of the simulation with no results from last season.  Of course, last season, Leicester were projecting to a higher chance of going down than we currently project to, so...

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