Monte Carlo simulation (Round 7)
It's not looking great at Villa Park, is it?
9th | 0.1% | |
---|---|---|
10th | 0.1% | |
11th | 0.3% | |
12th | 0.5% | |
13th | 1.0% | |
14th | 1.6% | |
15th | 2.8% | |
16th | 5.0% | |
17th | 8.9% | |
^^^ upper quartile | ||
18th | 16.2% | |
19th | 27.2% | median, maximum likelihood |
vvv lower quartile | ||
20th | 36.3% |
I suspect that this is the most pessimistic Monte Carlo run I've ever had; right after our loss to Hull last season, our relegation probability was only around 65%. The "maximum likelihood" refers to our finish in the table that came up the most often.
Relegation chances:
- Sunderland: 84.0%
- Villa: 79.7%
- Bournemouth: 55.0%
- Newcastle: 29.8%
- Liverpool: 19.8%
- Watford: 10.8%
- West Brom: 7.6%
- Swansea: 6.5%
- Norwich: 4.0%
- Palace: 1.5%
- West Ham: 0.8%
- Stoke, Southampton, Everton, Chelsea, Arsenal: 0.1%
This is the first run of the simulation with no results from last season. Of course, last season, Leicester were projecting to a higher chance of going down than we currently project to, so...
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