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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 6)


leviramsey

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For the past few years, I've endeavored to periodically post results of Monte Carlo simulations of the remainder of the season. The process is essentially analogous to repeatedly running the BBC predictor and seeing how often various events come up.

I've decided that with the new site, it perhaps makes more sense to have this as a blog series rather than regular comments.

5th0.1%
6th0.1%
7th0.2%
8th0.3%
9th0.6%
10th0.8%
11th1.3%
12th2.2%
13th3.4%
14th5.2%
15th7.4%
^^^ upper quartile
16th10.3%
17th13.0%
18th16.3% median
19th18.1%
vvv lower quartile
20th20.7%

By my reckoning, as things stand it's about 50/50 whether we finish between 19th and 16th, with above that range being about as likely as 20th.

The table that came up most often in the simulation was:

1. Man City
2. Chelsea
3. Leicester City
4. Spurs
5. Everton
6. Man United
7. Swansea
8. Arsenal
9. West Brom
10. West Ham
11. Southampton
12. Watford
13. Crystal Palace
14. Stoke
15. Norwich
16. Bournemouth
17. Liverpool
18. Villa
19. Newcastle
20. Sunderland

Relegation chances

Sunderland 61.8%
Newcastle 55.5%
Villa 55.1%
Liverpool 48.5%
Bournemouth 33.6%
Norwich 22.9%
Stoke 11.1%
Watford 3.0%
Southampton, Crystal Palace 2.4%
West Ham 1.3%
Swansea 1.0%
West Brom 0.6%
Arsenal 0.4%
Man Utd 0.3%
Everton 0.1%

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