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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 12)

leviramsey

Entry posted by leviramsey

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Getting a draw against the league leaders was not enough to dramatically improve the Monte Carlo's estimations, but it didn't dramatically hurt things (not that things could have gotten much worse). This is not really a cause for pressing the panic button. The Monte Carlo's assessment is now just about solely based on the period when you could fairly say that other sides figured out Sherwood. Assuming that the level of performance Remi Garde brought out of the team is the new normal, as some of the worse performances under Sherwood "age out", the story of the next few rounds of Monte Carlos will be steady improvement.

There was still improvement, in some sense, in the Monte Carlo's assessment: our chances of rock-bottom decreased!

17th 0.2% -0.1%
18th 3.5% +1.4%
19th 17.7% +6.9%
^^^ upper quartile
20th 78.6% -8.1% median, maximum likelihood
  1. Villa: 99.8% (+0.2%)
  2. Sunderland: 96.0% (+11.1%)
  3. Bournemouth: 82.6% (+14.9%)
  4. Newcastle: 6.2% (-8.3%)
  5. Norwich: 5.3% (-20.6%)
  6. WBA: 3.9% (+0.6%)
  7. Swansea: 3.5% (+3.0%)
  8. Chelsea: 1.9% (unchanged)
  9. Liverpool: 0.8% (-1.0%)
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