• limpid

      Just visiting?   27/12/16

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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 12)



Getting a draw against the league leaders was not enough to dramatically improve the Monte Carlo's estimations, but it didn't dramatically hurt things (not that things could have gotten much worse). This is not really a cause for pressing the panic button. The Monte Carlo's assessment is now just about solely based on the period when you could fairly say that other sides figured out Sherwood. Assuming that the level of performance Remi Garde brought out of the team is the new normal, as some of the worse performances under Sherwood "age out", the story of the next few rounds of Monte Carlos will be steady improvement.

There was still improvement, in some sense, in the Monte Carlo's assessment: our chances of rock-bottom decreased!

17th 0.2% -0.1%
18th 3.5% +1.4%
19th 17.7% +6.9%
^^^ upper quartile
20th 78.6% -8.1% median, maximum likelihood
  1. Villa: 99.8% (+0.2%)
  2. Sunderland: 96.0% (+11.1%)
  3. Bournemouth: 82.6% (+14.9%)
  4. Newcastle: 6.2% (-8.3%)
  5. Norwich: 5.3% (-20.6%)
  6. WBA: 3.9% (+0.6%)
  7. Swansea: 3.5% (+3.0%)
  8. Chelsea: 1.9% (unchanged)
  9. Liverpool: 0.8% (-1.0%)

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  • Posts

    • I was about to say the same thing. Let's not rewrite history just because we are playing well at the moment. Let's enjoy how we play now, support the team and the manager 100% and keep our fingers crossed that we continue playing this way.
    • I think we’re on the same page.  I’m talking more aspirational and ideal.  You’re talking more practically (and shorter horizon, realistically) I agree with you short term assessment, but I don’t see Bruce effectively doing either very well.  It does not take months to get championship level players to understand and execute a discernible system of play. 
    • I wonder if his presentation had an impact on the players. That was probably the most fight I've ever seen from there. 
    • The Irish government needs to work on being the preferred English speaking finance hub for the EU. Dublin could do quite well out of it and help soften the blow a bit. 
    • I predict he will end up playing at the sty.
    • no Tro you clutch at straws The exaggerated point is that since our last defeat Brouters like me critisized, rightly so, but still got panned for critisizing. I have NOT critisized him for todays result, only highlighting that the players can „play“ if allowed to. It seems today he did that (or maybe it just happened). The main difference is you are smug towards me cause we won. Believe me, I‘m happy we won, moreso as we were convincing. I‘m not smug when we lose. I‘m p*ss*d off.
    • Yep, its amazing how quickly it has all happened as well, literally in the last 5 or 6 years. The thing that gets me is that each shop is a carbon copy of the others, how many Supermarkets that cater specifically to the Polish community do you need on one road? Erdington does loads of stuff to try and get the community spirit going, Erd'os are a proud bunch, there are also a **** ton of idiots and bad bastards as well though.
    • From who? I don't think he is good enough for the Premier League and doubt we will sell to a rival. 
    • Our player of the season for me so far for the impact he has had on the whole dynamic of the team.  The thing is he puts in a hell of a lot of effort every game with his pressing and also gets clattered by defenders time after time. With Kodija probably out for most of the season and Hogan being awful I think another 'big man up top' as cover is what we need in January. 
    • He's our only reliable goal scorer so far this season.